Trade setup for March 12: Top 15 things to know before the opening bell as traders track US–Iran tensions

Nifty Trade setup for March 12

• Narrowing gap between the 50- and 200-day EMAs increases possibility of move toward a death cross
• Nifty's 23,700 expected to be at major risk
• 24,300 remains an immediate crucial hurdle

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The Nifty 50 reversed all its previous day's gains and tumbled 1.6 percent on March 11 amid weakness in global peers, tracking ongoing US–Iran tensions and elevated oil prices. Momentum indicators maintained sell signals, while the narrowing gap between the 50- and 200-day EMAs increased the possibility of a move toward a death cross, signalling bears having the upper hand. The 23,700 level — Monday's low — is expected to be at major risk. If the Nifty 50 decisively breaks this level, a fall towards 23,500 and 23,000 is possible in the upcoming sessions. However, 24,300 remains an immediate crucial hurdle, according to experts.

Here are 15 data points we have collated to help you spot profitable trades:

1) Key Levels For The Nifty 50 (23,867)

Resistance based on pivot points: 24,178, 24,287, and 24,465

Support based on pivot points: 23,823, 23,713, and 23,535

Special Formation: The Nifty 50 formed a long bearish candle on the daily charts following a Doji-like pattern formation, indicating a continuation of weakness. The index dropped below the lower Bollinger Band and sustained below an upward-sloping trendline (which earlier acted as support and has now turned into resistance). The 20-, 50-, and 100-day EMAs maintained a downward move, while bearish signals sustained in momentum indicators. All this indicates continued weakness in the near term.

2) Key Levels For The Bank Nifty (55,736)

Resistance based on pivot points: 56,601, 56,909, and 57,409

Support based on pivot points: 55,603, 55,295, and 54,796

Resistance based on Fibonacci retracement: 56,784, 57,740

Support based on Fibonacci retracement: 55,311, 53,562

Special Formation: The banking index also formed a long red candle on the daily timeframe and sustained below the 200-day EMA, signalling a continuation of weakness. The short- and medium-term moving averages trended down, while the RSI dropped to 28.74, entering the oversold zone. Meanwhile, the gap between the MACD and signal line widened below the zero line, accompanied by another long red bar in the histogram. All this indicates persistent bearish momentum.

3) Nifty Call Options Data

According to the weekly options data, the maximum Call open interest was seen at the 24,300 strike (with 53.36 lakh contracts). This level can act as a key resistance level for the Nifty in the short term. It was followed by the 24,500 strike (53.21 lakh contracts) and 24,200 strike (44.24 lakh contracts).

Maximum Call writing was observed at the 24,300 strike, which saw an addition of 35.77 lakh contracts, followed by the 24,200 and 24,500 strikes, which added 32.62 lakh and 29.53 lakh contracts, respectively. There was hardly any Call unwinding seen in the 23,200-24,600 strike band.

4) Nifty Put Options Data

On the Put side, the 23,500 strike holds the maximum Put open interest (with 36.15 lakh contracts), which can act as a key support level for the Nifty in the short term. It was followed by the 24,000 strike (31.03 lakh contracts) and the 23,800 strike (22.49 lakh contracts).

The maximum Put writing was placed at the 23,900 strike, which saw an addition of 10.44 lakh contracts, followed by the 23,400 and 23,200 strikes, which added 10.18 lakh and 9.28 lakh contracts, respectively. The maximum Put unwinding was seen at the 24,400 strike, which shed 1.7 lakh contracts, followed by the 24,500 and 24,250 strikes, which shed 1.56 lakh and 1.12 lakh contracts, respectively.

5) Bank Nifty Call Options Data

According to the monthly options data, the maximum Call open interest was seen at the 56,000 strike, with 4.58 lakh contracts. This can act as a key resistance level for the index in the short term. It was followed by the 57,000 strike (4.53 lakh contracts) and the 55,000 strike (2.49 lakh contracts).

Maximum Call writing was observed at the 56,000 strike (with the addition of 1.7 lakh contracts), followed by the 57,000 strike (1.29 lakh contracts) and 56,500 strike (91,620 contracts). The maximum Call unwinding was seen at the 57,200 strike, which shed 26,310 contracts, followed by the 55,800 and 57,100 strikes, which shed 18,330 and 11,190 contracts, respectively.

6) Bank Nifty Put Options Data

On the Put side, the 56,000 strike holds the maximum Put open interest (with 7.01 lakh contracts), which can act as a key level for the index. This was followed by the 55,000 strike (5.34 lakh contracts) and the 57,000 strike (4.5 lakh contracts).

The maximum Put writing was placed at the 56,000 strike (which added 65,160 contracts), followed by the 57,300 (37,710 contracts) and 55,800 (26,340 contracts). The maximum Put unwinding was seen at the 56,800 strike, which shed 53,490 contracts, followed by the 57,000 and 56,500 strikes, which shed 51,275 and 35,460 contracts, respectively.

7) Funds Flow (Rs crore)

8) Put-Call Ratio

The Nifty Put-Call ratio (PCR), which indicates the mood of the market, dropped to 0.83 on March 11, compared to a 1.03 in previous session.

The increasing PCR, or being higher than 0.7 or surpassing 1, means traders are selling more Put options than Call options, which generally indicates the firming up of a bullish sentiment in the market. If the ratio falls below 0.7 or moves towards 0.5, then it indicates selling in Calls is higher than selling in Puts, reflecting a bearish mood in the market.

9) India VIX

The India VIX, also known as the fear gauge, remained in an elevated zone and spiked 11.4 percent to 21.06 after a day of a 19 percent fall, signalling continued risk for bulls.

10) Long Build-up (12 Stocks)

A long build-up was seen in 12 stocks. An increase in open interest (OI) and price indicates a build-up of long positions.

11) Long Unwinding (64 Stocks)

64 stocks saw a decline in open interest (OI) along with a fall in price, indicating long unwinding.

12) Short Build-up (113 Stocks)

113 stocks saw an increase in OI along with a fall in price, indicating a build-up of short positions.

13) Short-Covering (21 Stocks)

21 stocks saw short-covering, meaning a decrease in OI, along with a price increase.

14) High Delivery Trades

Here are the stocks that saw a high share of delivery trades. A high share of delivery reflects investing (as opposed to trading) interest in a stock.

15) Stocks Under F&O Ban

Securities banned under the F&O segment include companies where derivative contracts cross 95 percent of the market-wide position limit.

Stocks added to F&O ban: Nil

Stocks retained in F&O ban: SAIL, Sammaan Capital

Stocks removed from F&O ban: Nil