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Despite pressure on the trade gap, balance of payments seems to be on track for a small deficit in FY25
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Impact on Indian rupee: Currency experts have warned before that sustained crude price increases may widen the CAD and exert considerable pressure on the Indian rupee, given that inflows have weakened due to rising US interest rates and the strengthening of the dollar.
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India typically runs a current account deficit as it is a developing economy that relies on imports of several commodities like crude oil.
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Strengthening external sector metrics, benign oil prices, robust portfolio dollar flows, monetary easing indicators and an anchored inflation will all contribute to the rupee’s strength in 2024
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The factor that should boost imports and widen the current account deficit is if the much-anticipated boom in capital goods finally takes off
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There is a slowdown in the labour-intensive exports such as textiles, leather products and gems & jewellery
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To manage the heightened external risks, keeping the twin deficits in check would be crucial for the Union Budget 2023 to ensure macro-economic and financial stability
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India is not insulated from the global upheavals. Growth projections have been revised downwards in the past few months as exports will take a hit. However, the status of economic stability parameters is encouraging
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Although the twin deficits are likely to scale a new peak, the drivers of the deficits are very different from 2010-13
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RBI has taken baby steps to smoothen the volatility in currency market. It will have to take a giant leap forward (by hiking interest rates and/or dipping into forex reserves) to halt the weakening of the rupee
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A sustainable downward correction in oil prices would be crucial in curbing the overall trade deficit, as everything else being equal, for every $1 increase in the price of crude oil, India’s trade deficit goes up by nearly $1 billion
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Analysts forecast CAD to widen to 3.3% of GDP in FY23 from 1.2% in FY22
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The surge in gold imports during the 11-month period contributed to the widening of the trade deficit to $176 billion, against $89 billion in April-February 2021.
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The report adds that every $10 per barrel rise in crude prices results in a $14-15 billion increase in current account deficit which is equivalent to almost 0.4 percent of GDP
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Our 10 mean reversion scenarios put Nifty December 2022 target at an average of 17,500 with the range being 16,500 to 18,500: Jefferies
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The current account returns to deficit territory after being in surplus in April-June 2021.
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The Fed has laid the groundwork for tapering this year, but it has also given plenty of advance notice
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Strap: As the economy recovers, the current account deficit should widen. However, with central banks in the developed economies committed to keeping the liquidity spigots open, fund flows to emerging markets should continue, so the financing of the deficit should not be an issue
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India's Current Account Deficit (CAD) has shot up in Q3 due to a fall in remittances from Indian living abroad. The CAD rose to USD 7.9 billion, which is up from USD 3.4 billion in the previous quarter. Latha Venkatesh of CNBC-TV18 has more details.
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Imports of the precious metal were on a decline since February this year till September. It recorded positive growth in October and November.
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The current account deficit (CAD) narrowed sharply to just USD 300 million, or 0.1 percent of GDP, in the June quarter, driven by lower trade deficit on deeper import contraction, the Reserve Bank said today.
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The prices have been declining at global as well as domestic markets. However, the higher import impacts the country's current account deficit (CAD).
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The import tariff value is the base price at which the customs duty is determined to prevent under-invoicing. It is normally revised on a fortnightly basis.
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Jaitley, who got a slew of reform measures approved in the just-concluded Budget session of Parliament, said the focus of the Narendra Modi-led government in the second year would be increasing spending on rural infrastructure, including irrigation and social sector schemes.
