CLOSING BELL: Sensex off day's lows with a decline of 0.70%, Nifty at 24,637 ; IndusInd, Bharti Airtel, Ultratech lead gains

Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP Technical and Derivatives Research at Asit C. Mehta Investment Interrmediates:

Indian benchmark indices opened on a negative note due to weak global cues, remained under pressure throughout the day, and ultimately settled on a negative note at 24,610. The volatility index, India VIX, cooled off by 1.65% to 17.26, indicating a drop in market volatility.

Technically, Nifty formed a red candle on the daily chart, suggesting weakness. However, the index found support around the 21-Day Exponential Moving Average (21-DEMA), which is placed near 24,445. On the upside, 25,000 will act as a key resistance level for the index in the short term.

The Bank Nifty index opened with a gap down, witnessed selling pressure in the first half, but a late recovery helped the index recoup some losses, and it finally settled on a marginally negative note at 54,941. Technically, the index formed a hammer candle on the daily chart near 21-Day Exponential Moving Average (21-DEMA) support, indicating potential strength. On the downside, strong support is seen near 54,557 (21-DEMA), while short-term resistance is placed near 55,700 levels. Traders are advised to monitor these levels closely for potential trading opportunities.

"Rupee traded very weak, depreciating by 42 paise to close at 85.92 against the US dollar, as FII activity remained mixed with both inflows and outflows observed over the past few days. The weakness reflects uncertainty amid global concerns like the US debt situation, while domestic economic strength is expected to limit further downside. Market participants remain cautious, and the rupee is likely to trade in a broader range of 85.45 to 86.35 in the near term."

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities:

"The Nifty slipped due to global weakness, following new tax bill discussions by the U.S. President. Technically, the index declined from the 200-hour moving average and found support at the 21-day EMA. The very short-term trend remains weak, and the Nifty may continue to correct as long as it stays below 24,800. Any rise toward this level could attract selling pressure. On the lower end, support is placed at 24,445 (21EMA); a breakdown below this level could accelerate weakness. On the higher side, if the Nifty moves above 24,650, it may head toward 24,775–24,800."

At 15:26 hrs IST, the Sensex was down 559.59 points or 0.69 percent at 81,037.04, and the Nifty was down 170.95 points or 0.69 percent at 24,642.50. About 1518 shares advanced, 1907 shares declined, and 128 shares unchanged.

GRSE has been cut to 'sell' at Elara Securities, target price is Rs 2260

Bharat Electronics has been cut to 'accumulate' at Elara, target price is Rs Rs 400

Uno Minda has been raised to 'buy' at Choice Equity, target price is Rs 1150

#1 Net Loss At Rs 20 Cr Vs Loss Of Rs 1 Cr (YoY)

#2 Revenue Down 2% At Rs 293 Cr Vs Rs 298 Cr (YoY)

#3 EBITDA Up 2% At Rs 54 Cr Vs Rs 55 Cr (YoY)

#4 Margin At 18.4% Vs 18.5% (YoY)

#1 Net Profit Up 13% At Rs 42 Cr Vs Rs 37 Cr (YoY)

#2 Revenue Up 22.4% At Rs 1,104.6 Cr Vs Rs 902.5 Cr (YoY)

#3 EBITDA Up 27.2% At Rs 84.7 Cr Vs Rs 66.3 Cr (YoY)

#4 Margin At 7.7% Vs 7.4% (YoY)

#1 Net Profit Down 31.4% At Rs4.8 Cr Vs Rs7 Cr (YoY)

#2 Revenue Up 63.8% At Rs801.4 Cr Vs Rs489.2 Cr (YoY)

#3 EBITDA At Rs20.7 Cr Vs Rs8 Cr (YoY)

#4 Margin At 2.6% Vs 1.6% (YoY)

#1 Revenue Up 14% at Rs1,190 Cr Vs Rs1,043.5 Cr (YoY)

#2 EBITDA Up 6.5% at Rs217.2 Cr Vs Rs204.2 Cr (YoY)

#3 Margin at 18.3% Vs 19.6% (YoY)

Clean Science Q4

#1 Net Profit (GU) 5.7% YOY At Rs 74 Crore

#2 Revenue (GU) 15.8% YOY At Rs 264 CrORE

#3 EBITDA (GU)10.6% YOY At Rs 105 Crore

#4 Margin At 39.8%

The struggle for US Dollar continued since Moody’s announced its downgrade of the US credit rating.

At 13:06 hrs IST, the Sensex was down 976.40 points or 1.20 percent at 80,620.23, and the Nifty was down 298.50 points or 1.20 percent at 24,514.95. About 1380 shares advanced, 1948 shares declined, and 140 shares unchanged.

Bajaj Auto has arranged 800 million euros debt funding package to save the Austrian company from bankruptcy

Leading two-wheeler maker Bajaj Auto has said on May 22 that it intends to take control of Austria's KTM via a subsidiary and become a majority owner.

QIB – 1.89 times

NII - 85.6 times

Retail – 101.65 times

Overall – 42.85 times

QIB – 0.45 times

NII - 2.8 times

Retail – 0.75 times

Overall – 1.1 times

Bajaj Auto is extending a loan of Rs4,365 crore to KTM, which will be deposited into the escrow account of the creditors. Additionally, Bajaj Auto International Holdings will convert bonds worth Rs1,455 crore held in Pierer Bajaj, further strengthening its financial engagement with the group.

Manish Chokhani, Director at Enam Holdings, highlighted that India’s manufacturing sector currently contributes around 15 percent to the country’s GDP, placing it at the lower end of the global manufacturing spectrum. However, he expressed optimism about its trajectory. “We are still at the bottom of the pyramid, but we’re growing. There’s strong reason to be optimistic, especially with a new generation of entrepreneurs looking beyond the domestic market,” he said.

On market outlook, Chokhani acknowledged elevated valuations but underscored the need for commitment. “Valuations are not cheap, but if you want to participate in this growth story, you’ll have to stretch your spending,” he noted.

Swarup Mohanty, CEO of Mirae Asset Investment Managers (India), described 2025 as a "reset year" globally. “When a dominant country begins to shift its strategy, it triggers a chain reaction—other nations are compelled to adapt as well,” he noted.

He noted that it would be premature to draw long-term conclusions based on current developments. “2025 is a formative year for many countries, including India, and it’s important to recognize that today’s shifts are laying the groundwork for the future,” Mohanty added.

Commenting on US policy unpredictability, Shah remarked, “When it comes to President Trump, a fitting Bollywood dialogue is: ‘Don ko samajhna mushkil hi nahi, namumkin hai’ – even he doesn't know what he'll do next. We should let the US resolve its own tariff and geopolitical issues. Our focus should be on leveraging India’s strengths and the stability of our own government. However, it is difficult to predict if and how these global developments will benefit India.”

On India’s economic outlook, he added, “We should aspire for double-digit growth, but realistically, it seems out of reach at present. Key challenges include improving the ease of doing business and creating an ecosystem that truly empowers Indian entrepreneurs.”

Garden Reach Shipbuilders & Engineers has emerged as the lowest bidder for the Indian Navy’s Next Generation Corvette (NGC) project, valued at over Rs25,000 crore. According to the company, the lowest bidder is expected to be awarded the construction of five NGC ships under this high-value defense contract.

IndusInd Bank’s stock opened 3 percent lower following a wave of downgrades after the lender reported a larger-than-expected loss and revealed new accounting discrepancies, just weeks after its chief executive officer stepped down.

Brokerages including Morgan Stanley, HSBC, Avendus Spark, and Axis Capital downgraded the stock to sell-equivalent ratings. The bank disclosed that investigations by an external firm and its internal audit department uncovered Rs 173 crore that was incorrectly recorded as fee income. This comes on top of Rs 1960 crore in discrepancies previously identified earlier this year in the bank’s derivatives portfolio.

The Sensex opened 460 points lower, while the Nifty fell below the 24,650 mark, tracking a decline in global markets. Among the top losers in early trade were IndusInd Bank, PowerGrid, and Tech Mahindra.

In pre-opening trade, India’s benchmark Sensex declined by 270 points, or 0.34 percent, to 81,323, while the Nifty dropped 79 points, or 0.32 percent, to 24,733.

The Indian rupee opened marginally higher against the US dollar. At 9.06am, the home currency was trading at 85.60 a dollar, up marginally from its previous close of 85.64.

Nifty rebounded on Wednesday, snapping a 3-day losing streak, but Thursday may see Bears retake control amid global weakness, US debt concerns, rising Covid-19 cases, and overbought technicals. The intraday bias stays neutral to negative below the 25,000 mark, with key support at 24,386. Q4 results from CONCOR, GRASIM, ITC, RAMCO CEMENT, and SUNPHARMA are in focus. Stock-specific action includes IndusInd Bank’s sharp Q4 loss, DLF’s strong profit growth, and big gains in Trident and TTML. Trading bias is bearish on Nifty, Bank Nifty, JUBILANT FOODS, INDUSIND BANK, and ZOMATO.

Gold prices have rebounded as global risk sentiment, especially in the US, has weakened amid growing economic uncertainty. Ongoing ambiguity in trade negotiations, now at the halfway point of the 90-day pause, is further fueling market anxiety. Contributing to the cautious mood are rising U.S. bond yields and the Federal Reserve’s reluctance to cut interest rates, both of which weigh on risk assets like equities. Additionally, escalating geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel, as reported by some media outlets, are likely to sustain demand for safe-haven assets such as gold.

The Belrise Industries IPO was subscribed over 67 percent on the first day of bidding. The Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIB) portion saw a subscription of 42 percent, while the Non-Institutional Investors (NII) segment subscribed 1.44 times. Retail Individual Investors (RII) subscribed 48 percent of their allocated quota.

The Borana Weaves IPO was subscribed over 29.57 times on the second day of bidding. The QIB portion was subscribed 1.76 times, while NII subscribed 53.15 times. Retail investors showed robust interest, with their portion subscribed 77.65 times.

#1 Revenue At Rs34,982 Cr Vs CNBC-TV18 Poll Of Rs34,046 Cr

#2 EBITDA At Rs19,008 Cr Vs CNBC-TV18 Poll Of Rs17,966 Cr

#3 Margin At 54.30% Vs CNBC-TV18 Poll Of 52.80%

Morgan Stanley has reiterated its bullish stance on Indian equities, calling the recent correction from September 2024 highs a buying opportunity. In its latest mid-year outlook, the brokerage raised its Sensex target for June 2026 to 89,000, implying an 8 percent upside from current levels. In a more optimistic scenario, it sees the index touching 1,00,000.

Despite global uncertainties, Morgan Stanley argues that India’s fundamentals remain intact. It cites strong macroeconomic stability—low inflation volatility, improving terms of trade, fiscal consolidation, and a dovish central bank—as key pillars supporting growth. Corporate earnings are expected to grow at mid-to-high teens annually over the next three to five years, driven by a revival in private investment, improving balance sheets, and rising discretionary consumption.

ITC, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, Grasim Industries, Honasa Consumer, Bajel Projects, Barbeque-Nation Hospitality, Clean Science and Technology, Container Corporation of India, Deepak Fertilisers & Petrochemicals Corporation, Emcure Pharmaceuticals, Gandhar Oil Refinery (India), GMR Airports, HFCL, Metro Brands, Premier Explosives, Ramco Cements, Strides Pharma Science, TBO TEK, and Windlas Biotech will announce their quarterly earnings on May 22.

Gift Nifty signals a subdued start for Indian markets. As of 8:00 AM, the GIFT Nifty index was trading at 24,760, down by 69 points or 0.28 percent.

On Wednesday, India’s benchmark Sensex closed 0.5 percent higher, gaining 410 points to end at 81,596, while the Nifty rose 0.5 percent or 129.55 points to close at 24,813.45.

Among sectoral gainers, Nifty Realty was the top performer, rising 1.7 percent, followed by Nifty Pharma and Nifty PSU Bank, which gained 1.3 percent and 0.7 percent, respectively. Other gainers included Nifty IT and Nifty Metal, which were up 0.7 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively. Among the losers, Nifty Consumer Durables declined 0.5 percent.

Asian equities declined and US Treasuries extended their losses at the open on Thursday, tracking the downturn on Wall Street amid mounting concerns over the ballooning US fiscal deficit. A regional benchmark index fell for the first time in three sessions, weighed down by subdued openings in key markets including Australia, Japan, and South Korea. Meanwhile, the dollar weakened for a fourth straight session.

US stock markets closed significantly lower on Wednesday amid a sharp rise in Treasury yields, driven by concerns that federal debt could expand by trillions of dollars should Congress approve President Donald Trump’s proposed tax-cut legislation. The increase in longer-term Treasury yields followed a tepid response from investors to the Treasury Department’s $16 billion auction of 20-year bonds. As a result, the yield on the benchmark US 10-year Treasury note climbed 10.8 basis points to 4.589 percent, marking its highest level since mid-February during the trading session.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 1.9 percent, the S&P 500 dropped 1.6 percent, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.4 percent