Kashmir attack to US tariffs: 7 key market takeaways from Prashant Khemka, Founder, White Oak Capital

Kashmir attack to US tariffs: 7 key market takeaways from Prashant Khemka, Founder, White Oak Capital

Amid lot of uncertainties gripping the equity markets, here are seven key market takeaways from Prashant Khemka, Founder, White Oak Capital.

1) War-scale escalation unlikely

Unless India opts for a full-fledged war or surgical strike, the market impact from the Pahalgam attack in J&K is likely to be limited. The probability of large-scale conflict looks low.

2) Political messaging could be strong, need not mean economic impact

Expect the Modi administration to send a strong political message post-attack to reinforce India’s global image. However, this need not translate into economically disruptive action, especially given Pakistan’s weak retaliatory capability.

3) Markets have returned to “normal” behaviour

Markets now in a steady state of normalcy. "Normal" means a market that sees ups and downs but continues trending upward—not sideways or stagnant.

Since late last year, markets have settled into a phase of healthy and sustainable movement. This trend is expected to hold through the coming year.

Outlook: 10% annualised returns possible, give or take a few percentage points.

4) US tariff-related fall to reverse

The sharp decline in US equities due to tariff concerns was exaggerated. Markets are now recognising that Trump’s statements are often walked back. He has reversed positions on Powell and tariffs. As markets digest this behaviour pattern, global sentiment should improve.

5) 30% of Nifty in good shape

A significant portion of the Nifty is fundamentally strong. Banks and financials, in particular, have received consistently positive commentary from managements. Strong balance-sheet, stable asset-quality, lower rates, liquidity – all positive.

6) Consumer weakness may be bottoming out

Demand may not be booming, but weakness appears to be behind us. If consumer loan books are holding steady, that’s a healthy signal. Sectors like staples, retail, discretionary, and autos make up about 20% of the index. Earnings should improve here.

7) Mixed IT outlook: weak growth, but value in mid-caps

Large-cap IT earnings in dollar terms may be weak (0–3% growth), but in rupee terms and including buybacks, overall growth could reach ~6%. Mid-cap IT is expected to gain market share and perform better.