Sudeep Shah of SBI Securities believes Bank Nifty is well on track to test the 60,000 milestone before Diwali. The recent breakout from a Stage-2 cup pattern on the daily chart—a classic continuation formation that typically signals the start of a strong upward leg," he said in an interview to Moneycontrol.
Further, technically, Bank Nifty remains well-supported above all its key short and long-term moving averages, and momentum indicators on both daily and weekly charts—such as RSI and MACD—are firmly in bullish mode, he reasoned.
Meanwhile, he holds a bullish view on Affle, Abbott India, InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo), and MCX India. "All four stocks are currently trading at or near their respective all-time highs — a clear sign of strength and underlying demand," the Deputy Vice President, Head of Technical and Derivative Research at SBI Securities said.
Do you expect the Nifty to hit a new record high in the July series, considering the strong momentum?
The Nifty 50 broke free from its rangebound structure, delivering a sharp upside move last week and ending above the 25,600 mark, with a 2.09% gain. More importantly, this move led to the highest weekly close since September 2024, confirming that the breakout wasn’t just symbolic—it was structural. On the weekly chart, the index has formed a sizeable bullish candle, a visual expression of strong momentum and renewed buying conviction.
This breakout was not an isolated event. It comes with improving breadth across sectors such as financial services, private banks, oil & gas, infrastructure, and auto, many of which have also seen breakout patterns of their own. Backed by strong technical indicators and firm sectoral participation, Nifty now looks poised to extend its northward journey in the coming weeks and is likely to test the level of 25,800, followed by 26,100 in the short term. On the downside, the zone of 25,400-25,350 is likely to provide a cushion in case of any immediate decline.
Historically, how has the month of July performed for equity markets, and do you expect a similar trend in July 2025?
Tracking seasonality, over the past 18 years, the July month has often exhibited a positive trend for Nifty. On 14 occasions, the index has concluded on a positive note with an average gain of 4.60%, while on only 4 occasions, it has ended on a negative note with an average loss of 2.37%. The average return for Nifty in the July series has been 3.05%. Over the past 18 years, July has consistently shown an average volatility of 7.20 percent for the Nifty index.
Historically, Bank Nifty has also shown a positive trend in July over the past 18 years. Out of these, it closed positively 13 times, with an average gain of 4.52%, while ending negatively 5 times, with an average loss of 3.58%. The average return for Bank Nifty in the July series has been 2.27%. However, Bank Nifty has demonstrated an average volatility of approximately 10 percent for the past 18 years.
How do you interpret the rollover data?
Throughout the June series, Nifty futures largely remained confined within a narrow trading band of just 732 points, reflecting a phase of indecisiveness and rangebound activity. Since mid-May, the index has been oscillating in a tight consolidation zone between 25,307 to 24,575 levels, suggesting a lack of clear directional bias among market participants.
On the expiry day, the Nifty futures finally staged a decisive breakout from this prolonged consolidation phase and ended the June series above the 25,500 mark, registering a healthy gain of 2.69%. This breakout not only signals a potential shift in short-term sentiment but also sets a positive tone for the July series. From a derivatives perspective, the rollover of Nifty Futures increased to 79.53% in June, slightly higher than May’s 79.10% and also above the three-month average of 79.24%, indicating continued participation and positioning by traders heading into the new series.
The number of shares rolled surged to 162 lakhs compared to 149 lakh last month. However, the rollover cost dipped to 0.25%, below the three-month average of 0.43%.
Bank Nifty Futures traded in a narrow 1800-point range during the June series, marking the second straight month of muted price action. However, it gained momentum on the expiry day, closing above 57,200 with a 2.48% gain. From a derivatives standpoint, the rollover of Bank Nifty Futures declined to 75.75% in the June series — a noticeable drop compared to May’s 79.29% and also below the three-month average of 76.70%. This suggests a relatively cautious stance among traders and possibly a lighter carry-forward of positions into the July series.
Adding to this, the rollover cost dipped to 0.07%, significantly lower than the three-month average of 0.32%, reflecting a cautious rollover with limited aggressive long buildup.
What are your top two picks for the month of July?
On a daily scale, the stock has given an Ascending Triangle pattern breakout along with robust volume. Currently, the stock is trading above all the moving averages, and these averages are in rising mode. The Daily RSI has also given a 2-month consolidation breakout, which suggests pickup in upside momentum. Hence, we recommend accumulating the stock in the zone of Rs 7,320-7,280 levels with a stop-loss of Rs 7,080. On the upside, it is likely to test the level of Rs 7,750 in the short term.
Glaxosmithkline Pharmaceuticals
The stock has recently formed a strong base near its 34-day EMA level and thereafter started moving higher. The reversal from the support zone is confirmed by relatively higher volume. The daily RSI is surged above 60 mark and it is in rising mode, which is a bullish sign. Considering the current chart structure, we believe the stock is likely to continue its northward journey in the next couple of trading sessions. Hence, we recommend accumulating the stock in the zone of Rs 3,450-3,430 levels with a stop-loss of Rs 3,330. On the upside, it is likely to test the level of Rs 3,600 in the short term.
Do you think the Bank Nifty will find it easy to hit the 60,000 mark before Diwali?
Yes, we believe Bank Nifty is well on track to test the 60,000 milestone before Diwali. The index has already marked fresh all-time highs over the last two trading sessions, clearly outperforming the broader Nifty index, which still trades nearly 2.5 percent below its own record levels. This relative strength underscores the leadership of the banking space in the current market rally.
What further reinforces this bullish outlook is the recent breakout from a Stage-2 cup pattern on the daily chart—a classic continuation formation that typically signals the start of a strong upward leg.
Technically, Bank Nifty remains well-supported above all its key short and long-term moving averages, and momentum indicators on both daily and weekly charts—such as RSI and MACD—are firmly in bullish mode. This alignment of bullish signals across multiple timeframes suggests strong trend strength and buying interest.
Considering these technical factors, we expect Bank Nifty to maintain its upward momentum and approach the 60,000 mark in the coming months.
Are you bullish on Affle, Abbott India, IndiGo, and MCX India?
Yes, we hold a bullish view on Affle, Abbott India, IndiGo, and MCX India. From a technical standpoint, all four stocks are currently trading at or near their respective all-time highs — a clear sign of strength and underlying demand. Additionally, the price structures across these charts remain robust, with the stocks comfortably positioned above their key short-term and long-term moving averages.
Momentum indicators such as the RSI and MACD are also firmly in positive territory, reinforcing the prevailing bullish sentiment. This confluence of favourable technical signals indicates strong upward momentum and suggests that these stocks are well-positioned to extend their gains in the coming sessions.
Unless there’s a sudden shift in broader market sentiment, we expect these counters to maintain their northbound trajectory in the near term.
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
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