Perplexity AI is most likely to flop: Crowd verdict at major San Francisco AI conference

Aravind Srinivas is the CEO of Perplexity AI that aims to rival Google.

At the recent Cerebral Valley AI Conference in San Francisco, a provocative question turned heads: Which billion-dollar AI startup would you bet against? The informal survey of over 300 founders and investors, conducted by journalist Eric Newcomer, delivered a surprising verdict -- Perplexity AI topped the list, followed by OpenAI.

Perplexity’s position at the top wasn’t entirely unexpected. The AI-powered search startup has become emblematic of what critics call an “AI bubble.” Its ambition to challenge Google -- a company with decades of dominance, massive infrastructure, and entrenched user habits -- has raised eyebrows. Business Insider recently reported that Perplexity is attracting voracious investor demand, raising back-to-back rounds at valuations soaring from $14 billion to as high as $50 billion.

For many insiders, those numbers feel disconnected from reality. Building a search engine that rivals Google requires not just cutting-edge AI but also global-scale data, reliability, and trust—areas where Google remains virtually unassailable. “Search is not just about answers; it’s about speed, relevance, and ecosystem,” one attendee remarked off-record. “AI alone doesn’t solve that.”

Asked about the survey, Perplexity spokesperson Jesse Dwyer quipped in an email: “Geeze, it sounds more like the judgmental valley conference.” The company has positioned itself as a next-generation search tool, blending conversational AI with real-time web results. But skeptics argue that the technical and financial hurdles of dethroning Google are monumental, and the hype-driven valuations only amplify the risk.

OpenAI, landing the second position, on the other hand, surprised many as it's seen as the clear consumer winner of the AI revolution. But its ballooning valuation and trillions of infrastructure spending may have spooked some investors, Business Insider reported, adding that the tech giant didn't respond to a request for comment.