Adani Ports Q3 results preview: Net profit may rise 17%, revenue likely up 11% on resilient port volumes

Adani Ports and SEZ Q3 results preview

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Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone (APSEZ) is expected to report strong earnings growth for the third quarter of FY25, driven by steady cargo volumes and expansion through acquisitions. The country’s largest private port operator is projected to post a 17.3 percent year-on-year rise in net profit to Rs 2,589.4 crore, while revenue is estimated to grow 10.8 percent YoY to Rs 7,496.6 crore, according to a Bloomberg poll of analysts. The earnings are due on Thursday, 30 January.

Despite some sectoral headwinds, including muted iron ore and coal cargo movement, Adani Ports’ performance is likely to remain resilient, supported by higher container and liquid cargo volumes and the addition of new assets like Gopalpur and Astro Offshore.

Key drivers for Adani Ports' Q3 results: Cargo growth, acquisitions to fuel revenue

Adani Ports’ cargo volumes in Q3 FY25 stood at 112.3 million tonnes, reflecting a 3.4 percent year-on-year increase, according to Elara Capital. While this growth remains moderate compared to previous quarters, it significantly outperformed major Indian ports, which saw a 4 percent YoY volume decline during the October-November period.

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BNP Paribas analysts said that the company faces challenges in achieving its full-year volume guidance of 460-480 million tonnes, as it would require a sharp uptick in Q4 cargo throughput. However, they expect EBITDA growth to remain strong, supported by high-margin businesses and efficiency improvements.

The integration of recently acquired Gopalpur Port and Astro Offshore is expected to contribute to revenue, helping offset volume pressure in certain dry bulk segments, said Elara Capital. Additionally, the logistics business is likely to expand 12 percent YoY, according to Motilal Oswal, further aiding overall revenue growth.

Profitability outlook and margin trends for Adani Ports

Adani Ports’ EBITDA is estimated to grow between 4.9 and 9 percent YoY, with brokerage estimates ranging from Rs 4,392.9 crore (Motilal Oswal) to Rs 4,564 crore (Incred Research). The EBITDA margin is expected to see a slight compression due to subdued volume growth and higher operating costs in the logistics segment. Motilal Oswal estimates that EBITDA margin may decline by 190 basis points YoY, though Elara Capital expects margins to remain steady at around 61.5 percent, driven by improved operational efficiency and acquisitions.

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Key things to watch in Adani Ports' Q3 earnings

• Volume guidance for FY25: With APSEZ needing to handle over 42 million tonnes per month in Q4 to meet its full-year target, the company’s management commentary on achievable volumes will be crucial.
• Performance of new acquisitions: Contributions from Gopalpur and Astro Offshore could provide insights into the company’s long-term growth trajectory.
• Growth in logistics segment: Analysts will closely track how expansion in logistics services aids revenue diversification beyond traditional port operations.
• Margin trends and cost pressures: While APSEZ maintains a strong EBITDA margin, any rise in operating expenses, particularly in logistics and dry bulk cargo handling, could impact profitability.
• Sector-wide port trends: With major ports witnessing a 4 percent YoY decline in volumes, Adani Ports' ability to outperform the industry will be a key focus for investors.