Tata Motors Q4 Preview: Net profit may slip over 50%; JLR revenue to dip 3% on-year

Tata Motors' share price has rallied nearly 16 percent in the last month.

Mumbai-headquartered Tata Motors Limited is set to release its earnings report for the fourth fiscal quarter of FY25 on May 13. Analysts expect a little-to-no revenue growth, amid a slowdown in volumes, dip in passenger vehicle and JLR business. However, margins could face pressure due to weak operating leverage.

According to a Moneycontrol poll of five brokerage firms, the Nexon maker is anticipated to record a 1.1 percent year-on-year increase in revenue, reaching Rs 1,21,345 crore. Net profit is projected to witness a massive plunge of about 58 percent to Rs 7,361 crore from Rs 17,495 crore in the same quarter of the previous fiscal year.

Earnings estimates from analysts polled by Moneycontrol are in a diverse range, indicating that any positive or negative surprises could trigger a sharp reaction in the stock price. Most optimistic brokerage -- Motilal Oswal -- has forecasted a 52.2 percent dip in net profit. On the flipside -- ICICI Securities -- the most pessimistic brokerage -- projects a staggering 63.4 percent drop in net profit.

What factors could affect Tata Motors' earnings?

CV and PV revenues likely to fall: The standalone commercial vehicle (CV) business is expected to report a 5 percent year-on-year decline in revenue, while the passenger vehicle (PV) segment may see a high single-digit drop.

JLR revenue growth to slow: The company's British subsidiary, JLR, is expected to post a moderate decline in revenue by around 3 percent year-on-year and rise by about 2 percent sequentially. The EBIT margin is likely to expand by approximately 19 basis points year-on-year and 40 basis points quarter-on-quarter to 9.4 percent.

EBITDA Contraction: Consolidated margins are expected to decline year-on-year by about 160 basis points primarily due to weaker operating leverage. Lower volumes in both the commercial and passenger vehicle segments could weigh on cost absorption.

What to look out for in the quarterly show?

Investors will watch for updates on JLR’s FY26 guidance, progress on cost-control initiatives, demand and discounting trends in key markets, as well as volume and market-share trajectory. Clarity on the new-model launch schedule and the phase-out plan for Jaguar models will also be key.

On the India front, the company’s FY26 volume growth expectations for commercial vehicles (CVs), current and expected discounting trends, and market-share targets for the passenger vehicle (PV) segment will be in focus. Commentary on the demand outlook for CVs and PVs, competitive landscape, and upcoming EV models and their timeline will be closely tracked.

Shares of the company closed at Rs 720, higher by 1.6 percent from the last close on the NSE. Tata Motors' share price has rallied nearly 16 percent in the last month.

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