Dolat Capital has come with its September`12 quarterly earning estimates for auto sector. The research firm expects demand for UV segment to be robust. Due to production disruption, Maruti’s 2QFY13 will disappoint, M&M continues to report strong numbers.
Passenger Vehicles: The average monthly rate has moved up from ~240,000 vehicles sold in April-August 2011 to ~255,000 vehicles sold in April-August 2012. Till August 2012, the car segment has grown ~1% YoY, the MPV segment has declined ~9% YoY. The smartest growth has been in the UV segment which is up ~57% YoY. Maruti Suzuki’s market share declined from 40.3% in FY12 (till August) to 36.6% in FY13 (till August). M&M saw an increase in its market share from 9.2% to 11.3% during the same period. Other players who gained market share were Honda (90bps), Nissan Motors (100bps), Toyota Motors (140bps). Commercial Vehicles: The commercial vehicles grew ~5% YoY in FY13 (till August). While M&HCV sales were down ~12% YoY, the LCV sales were up ~17% YoY. In the M&HCV segment, while Ashok Leyland (290bps) and Eicher Motors (250bps) gained market share in FY13 (till August), Tata Motors lost (- 530bps). In the LCV segment, while Ashok Leyland gained market share (700bps), with its product ‘Dost’, Piaggio Vehicles (-260bps), Force Motors (-80bps), Tata Motors (-200bps) were down. Three Wheelers: The three-wheeler sales have remained flattish till date. The sector continues to witness pressure.Two Wheelers: Two-wheeler sales were up ~7%YoY in FY13 (till August). The scooter sales were up ~23%YoY, motorcycle sales were up ~3%, moped sales were up 3%YoY. In the scooter segment, Honda (HMSI) gained significant market share from 43.5% in FY12 (till August) to 51.3% in FY13 (till August). TVS lost share (-580 bps). Hero Motocorp (HMC) maintained its market share at ~16%. In the motorcycle segment, HMC lost (-130bps), Bajaj Auto lost (-180bps) while HMSI gained (390bps) market share. One major reason for 2QFY13 numbers to be lower YoY is due to the shift of festive demand in next quarter. Demand on petrol vehicles continues to be under pressure. Even some of the diesel models are ready available. With the launch of Quanto by M&M and restoring of production at Maruti’s Ertiga, we expect demand for UV segment to be robust. Due to production disruption, Maruti’s 2QFY13 will disappoint, M&M continues to report strong numbers.| Company | Sales (Rs Mn) | PAT (Rs mn) | ||||
| Q2FY13E | QoQ % | YoY % | Q2FY13E | QoQ % | YoY % | |
| Hero Motocorp | 51,262 | -17.9 | -12.1 | 4,966 | -19.3 | -17.7 |
| Bajaj Auto | 47,579 | -2.2 | -9.7 | 7,715 | 7.4 | 6.3 |
| TVS Motor | 16,398 | -9.9 | -17.7 | 471 | -7.8 | -38.4 |
| Maruti Suzuki | 79,814 | -25.9 | 1.9 | 3,310 | -21.9 | 37.6 |
| M&M | 95,027 | 1.4 | 29.1 | 7,389 | 1.8 | 0.2 |
| Tata Motors | 387,934 | -2.3 | 16.3 | 20,739 | 86.8 | 58.5 |
| Ashok Leyland | 30,493 | 1.4 | -1.5 | 917 | 36.9 | -40.5 |
| Eicher Motors | 16,470 | 3.9 | 13.5 | 863 | 13.6 | 17 |
| Apollo Tyres | 32,496 | 2.7 | 13.2 | 1,514 | 9 | 93.7 |
| Bharat Forge | 9,630 | 2.8 | 5.8 | 1,079 | 2.6 | 1.4 |
| Exide Inds | 14,584 | -6.1 | 24 | 1,626 | 7 | 217.9 |
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