Battleground Uttar Pradesh: The issues that dominated this election

The Uttar Pradesh elections, pivotal for national politics, see the BJP leveraging Modi's popularity and a strong coalition to counter the opposition's focus on economic distress and democratic concerns.

Uttar Pradesh has always been a critical battleground for political parties, encapsulated by the old saying, "The road to Delhi passes through Lucknow." As the largest state in India, electing 80 MPs, the outcome here significantly shapes the national political landscape. The essence of the electoral battle lies not only in how effectively parties convey their messages but also in how they address key issues like religion, caste, social welfare, and governance, which resonate deeply with voters.

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The political landscape in Uttar Pradesh showcases a stark contrast between the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the opposition. The BJP, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, seeks a third consecutive term, leveraging a robust social coalition built by bringing small caste based parties like Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP) of Om Prakash Rajbhar, RLD of Jayant Chaudhry and NISHAD party of Sanjay Nishad under NDA umbrella. The campaign intertwined with the themes of religion, nationalism, governance, and a well-oiled organizational machinery on the ground.

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On the other hand, the opposition, though fragmented, is vocal and focuses its campaign on pressing issues such as economic anxiety, anti-incumbency, and concerns about the potential erosion of democratic foundations under prolonged BJP rule. Samajwadi Party and Congress remained the main coalition partners.

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As the election campaign progressed, the BJP strategically posed the question, "Modi versus who?" This narrative struck a chord with the electorate. During my coverage, 90% of the people I interviewed voiced concerns about unemployment, inflation, and farm distress. However, majority ended their conversations with a resigned yet resolute endorsement: "Aayega toh Modi hi" (Ultimately, Modi will return).

This enduring popularity of Modi was a significant challenge for the opposition. The BJP capitalized on this, branding every promise under the banner of "Modi ki Guarantee" (Modi's Guarantee). Despite Modi's personal popularity, a decade in power has rendered local BJP representatives vulnerable to anti-incumbency sentiments.

This is crucial, as voices of economic anxiety resonate across states. While the BJP's campaign centers on the vision of a "Viksit Bharat" (Developed India) by 2047, the opposition focuses on immediate concerns like unemployment and rising prices, highlighting the decline in government job opportunities and questioning schemes such as Agniveer, the controversial new recruitment process for the armed forces.

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The BJP's electoral strategy revolved around `Ab ki baar 400 paar’. This declaration led to speculation about potential constitutional changes, particularly regarding reservations. The opposition seized this opportunity, alleging that the BJP aimed to fundamentally alter the Constitution and eliminate reservation benefits. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi prominently displayed a miniature copy of the Constitution at rallies in UP, while Akhilesh Yadav centred his campaign around `vote for INDIA Bloc to save constitution.’

This issue clicked with masses. Modi and Amit Shah tried to dispel the fear saying that no one can alter constitution. However, the fear had already taken root among some segments of the electorate. To counter this, the BJP used religion to blunt opposition barbs. Modi accused the Congress of wanting to redistribute wealth and reservation benefits from backward castes to Muslims. They claimed that opposition governments had disproportionately favored Muslim minorities, thus reigniting old polarizing narratives.

The battle between these contrasting narratives was critical, especially in UP because a massive success in UP would ensure bigger lead for the party at the national level.

“The strategy for both BJP and INDIA Bloc was clear. If BJP wants to secure victory or even maintain its tally, it must continue to expand or at least retain its social base of upper caste, backwards other than Yadavs and dalits. On the other hand, for opposition to make any significant impact, it needs to attract a substantial portion of the BJP's supporters,” Nomita P Kumar of Giri Institute of Development Studies said.

She said the results will not only shape the future of the state but also have profound implications for the national political landscape. The new government will face the monumental task of addressing the pressing issues of unemployment, economic distress, and social welfare that dominate the concerns of the electorate.