Confusion in Uttar Pradesh: Seats phasi padi hai

With its 80 parliamentary seats, Uttar Pradesh holds significant importance for all political parties vying for power in the Lok Sabha.

As the election juggernaut reaches its final phase, a common refrain has gripped the people of Uttar Pradesh: "seats phasi padi hai" (there is a close contest on all seats). The tight competition in all constituencies has cast a cloud of uncertainty over the outcome of this critical election.

With its 80 parliamentary seats, Uttar Pradesh holds significant importance for all political parties vying for power in the Lok Sabha. The inability to gauge a clear path forward has raised pressing questions about the direction this election is heading.

Senior journalist Sunita Aron describes the political scenario in UP as very confusing. "You ask anyone, and they say 'seats phasi padi hai.' They even offer plausible explanations about caste equations, candidate profiles, and growing disenchantment among voters to prove their point," she said.

Baring a few seats like Varanasi, Lucknow, Rae Bareli, Kannauj and Mainpuri people are predicting kaante ki takkar in other seats. The constituencies like Allahabad and Kanpur considered BJP's safe seats, are now tagged as phassi padi seats.

Another senior journalist, Hemant Tiwari, notes, "The inability to predict a clear winner has raised questions about the election's direction. The primary reason for this confusion is the polling percentage. As of the sixth phase, voter turnout is slightly lower than in the 2019 elections, raising questions about the poll outcome. Even the voters are silent."

The subdued atmosphere extends beyond the voters. There is a notable lack of enthusiasm among both the electorate and political parties. Campaigns have been unusually dull, with muted rallies and lackluster speeches failing to ignite the usual fervor.

"In UP, the ruling BJP failed to change candidates. People are fed up with seeing the same faces for ten years, so they were reluctant to take part in the campaign," said a BJP leader. This voter fatigue has contributed to the dampened enthusiasm.

In January, the consecration of Ram Lalla was expected to pave the way for an easy BJP victory. Opinion polls predicted a one-sided victory for the BJP in Uttar Pradesh. However, the political landscape took an unexpected turn as the election progressed. The alliance between Akhilesh Yadav's Samajwadi Party and Rahul Gandhi's Congress has posed a formidable challenge to the BJP, energizing their base and drawing significant support.

“What changed the election matrix was the way the Opposition bloc shifted the campaign to focus on caste lines. Unlike previous elections, this one was not centered around communal lines. The BJP's attempts to frame the contest as a Hindu-Muslim issue have not resonated with the electorate,” said political analyst Rajesh N Bajpyee. “Instead, the discourse has shifted towards caste dynamics, with leaders focusing on caste, the Constitution, and reservations rather than religious rhetoric.”

There is another side to the story. There is no perceptible anti-incumbency against the Modi government. Voters seem disenchanted with issues like unemployment, inflation, and other local concerns, but by and large, they are not angry with the government. Prime Minister Narendra Modi remains a popular figure and a mass leader. His appeal continues to draw crowds, but it appears insufficient to inject the campaign with the vigor seen in previous elections.

The polling percentage until the sixth phase stands at approximately 59%, slightly lower than the 60.12% recorded in the corresponding phases of the 2019 elections. This dip in voter turnout suggests a level of disengagement not previously seen.

Political analysts suggest that the subdued enthusiasm could result from multiple factors, including voter fatigue, dissatisfaction with long-standing candidates, and a campaign strategy that failed to ignite passions. The final phase of voting will be crucial in determining whether this trend continues or if there is a late surge in voter participation.

Senior journalist Manoj Bhadra said, “During each election, one could feel such confusion. But there is no confusion in the minds of the voters. They vote to elect a strong government. This has happened in many past elections and will happen in this one too.”