Will SP-Congress alliance in Uttar Pradesh last beyond Lok Sabha polls?

SP's Akhilesh Yadav

As political circles buzz with speculation, a pressing question among party workers is whether the alliance between the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Congress will endure or disintegrate post-elections, as it has in the past.

Despite the uncertainty, both parties are actively crafting strategies for a long-term partnership.

"I cannot predict it now… It all depends on the election result," said a senior Samajwadi Party leader. "At face value, the alliance fought a good battle. But issues like vote transfer between the supporters of both parties and the voting patterns of different socio-economic groups will define this alliance post-election," he said.

This is not the first time the Samajwadi Party and Congress have joined forces. In the 2017 Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections, they formed an alliance with the tagline "Do Ladke," but the results were disappointing, leading to the coalition's rapid disintegration.

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Following the fallout, leaders from both parties criticized each other, with Akhilesh Yadav even vowing not to enter into another alliance. In the runup for this Lok Sabha elections, he always claimed that SP will contest the election alone. However, a late-night call from Priyanka Gandhi managed to salvage this crucial alliance in Uttar Pradesh.

Similarly, in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the SP allied with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), but this partnership also yielded limited success. The BSP won 10 seats, while the SP only secured 5—all family seats. Allegations surfaced that vote transfers were not equitable, with SP supporters voting for BSP candidates, but BSP supporters not reciprocating.

A cold war between the SP and BSP ensued, peaking with open barbs traded between BSP chief Mayawati and SP leader Akhilesh Yadav.

Given this history of post-poll alliances, questions about the future of SP-Congress relations in Uttar Pradesh are inevitable.

Nomita P. Kumar of the Giri Institute of Development Studies in Lucknow noted that the longevity of the alliance largely depends on the election outcomes. "The indications suggest that the alliance might perform better than in the 2019 elections. If this happens, we can expect continuity in this alliance," she said.

Dr. A.K. Singh, a political analyst, pointed out that the social base of both parties is different. The SP mainly relies on Yadavs and some non-Kurmi backward castes, while Muslims are a common vote bank for both Congress and SP. "As the vote banks of Congress and SP do not clash, this could contribute to the alliance's longevity," he explained.

Amarnath Agarwal, a senior Congress leader, predicted a longer innings for the SP-Congress alliance in Uttar Pradesh. He argued that the post-poll scenario would be different for two reasons: the alliance is expected to perform much better than anticipated, and the social base of the alliance will expand as more caste-based parties join.

As the June 4 draw near, the political landscape of Uttar Pradesh remains dynamic, with the SP-Congress alliance at a critical juncture. Whether this partnership will withstand the test of time remains to be seen.