BUSINESS
Will Jerome Powell derail the ‘Immaculate Disinflation’ narrative?
The Federal Open Market Committee meeting this week is very important, as it will tell us whether the Fed has finally changed its stance on inflation, or whether it pushes back against the market narrative
BUSINESS
The good, the bad and the beautiful in the Indian and US inflation prints
While food inflation has gone up in India, core inflation is lower, while in the US the chances of an Immaculate Disinflation have improved, propelling markets higher
BUSINESS
The ideology of inflation: Many questions beg for an answer
Who benefits from inflation? Who loses? These questions are at the heart of the debate on how to bring down inflation
BUSINESS
Demolishing the house that Mahalanobis built
A recent paper published by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace is an excellent account of the malaise that has gripped the nation’s statistical system
BUSINESS
India PMI: Selling price inflation accelerates to strongest in over a decade
The strong growth momentum, combined with pricing power, should expand corporate margins, which will be welcomed by the markets
BUSINESS
Economic agenda of the BJP government: Spending pattern has all the pointers
The biggest changes in the proportion of total spending have been, as expected, in the infrastructure ministries
BUSINESS
India’s manufacturing PMI strongest in Asia, but it also signals higher core inflation
For the economy, one important takeaway from the tepid Chinese PMI manufacturing numbers is that input cost inflation will remain low. That should help commodity importers such as India
BUSINESS
What the Fed’s new financial conditions index is telling us
US financial conditions are currently estimated to be a drag on GDP growth of roughly 75 basis points over the next year
BUSINESS
High demand for work under MGNREGA in June raises questions on rural consumption
Demand for work under the rural employment guarantee scheme this fiscal year till June has been much higher than the same period last year, pointing to rural distress
BUSINESS
Financial knowledge is not the problem in India, but financial attitude is
A study by RBI researchers finds that while Indians score well in financial knowledge and behaviour, their financial attitude scores are terrible
BUSINESS
Lower goods trade deficit improves current account dramatically in March quarter
The factor that should boost imports and widen the current account deficit is if the much-anticipated boom in capital goods finally takes off
BUSINESS
Indian Ocean Dipole effect could mitigate El Nino impact on India: RBI research
Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology said in an update on 20 July 2023: ‘The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. All models suggest a positive IOD is likely to develop in the coming months’
BUSINESS
Flash PMIs for June show growth finally slowing in developed economies
BUSINESS
Bank for International Settlements warns of complacency in tackling inflation and financial risks
The BIS says that the next phase of disinflation will be more difficult
BUSINESS
Russia: A banana republic with nukes
What does the farcical Wagner rebellion say about the capabilities of the Russian state and of its army and about the way the country is governed?
BUSINESS
Are services exports slowing down too?
There is a slowdown in the labour-intensive exports such as textiles, leather products and gems & jewellery
BUSINESS
Chart of the Day: What the markets are saying about the Fed meet
Two charts that deconstruct the Fed’s ‘hawkish pause’
BUSINESS
Moneycontrol Pro Panorama | The best of both worlds?
In today’s edition of Moneycontrol Pro Panorama: Stock market risk appetite shrinks, water security imperative issue for businesses, India needs an OpenAI rival, booming pet economy, and more
BUSINESS
Chart of the Day: Four charts that bring out the key trends in inflation
The charts tell us what drove down inflation, the importance of the base effect, what’s happening to core inflation and on the wide variation in inflation among the states
BUSINESS
How much of a threat is El Nino to the Indian economy?
While an El Nino certainly has an adverse impact on the farm economy, there isn’t a tight correlation between the strength of the phenomenon and the damage caused. And government policy can curb the inflationary effect on food prices
BUSINESS
US economic wars: first as farce, then as tragedy
The US economic war against China echoes the trade war against Japan in the eighties
BUSINESS
PMI survey sends a message to Monetary Policy Committee
The MPC members must take the rise in PMI price indices into account
BUSINESS
Demand for work under MGNREGA shoots up in May 2023
Demand for work under the rural employment guarantee scheme in April and May this year have been higher than the same period last year
BUSINESS
Sizzling PMI for May shows manufacturing momentum increasing
India’s manufacturing PMI is far higher than that of most other economies in Asia. That explains the return of the FIIs and should provide support to the Indian stock market
