BUSINESS
What lessons does the Ukraine conflict have for Business?
Businesses have been given a crash course in geopolitical risk and its implications for supply chains, inflation, interest rates and investment in the last one year
BUSINESS
Market outlook ranges from hard to soft to a no landing scenario
Consensus may have pointed to a hard landing for the US economy in 2023, but data is pointing the other way. But a third possibility is coming into view as well
BUSINESS
The toughest job in central banking welcomes BoJ new Governor Kazuo Ueda
What will be the consequences of Ueda’s policies for the carry trade, which has become a significant source of foreign investments for key segments of the global markets?
BUSINESS
Puzzling economic signals and confused markets
For the Federal Reserve to cut rates over the year, as the market is pricing, you not only need to get inflation down, but you need to have the US labour market to cool off as well. The jobs data point to a US labour market that is strengthening, not weakening
BUSINESS
Budget 2023: Electoral compulsions, growth and fiscal prudence all get their due
The budget stayed the course on fiscal consolidation, but has also allocated funds wisely to important schemes
BUSINESS
Bank of Canada becomes first major central bank to signal rate pause
The Bank of Canada became the first central bank in a G10 economy to hint it was ready to pause its tightening cycle, noting that there had been a slowdown in domestic demand. Will the US Fed follow suit on February 1st?
BUSINESS
There is good news on the global economy
Officials and business leaders at last week’s annual World Economic Forum in Davos embraced a more confident outlook, and the IMF signalled that it would soon upgrade its forecasts for global growth for 2023
BUSINESS
Budget 2023: All about electoral compulsions balancing growth impulses with fiscal prudence
The Union Budget 2023 will seek to achieve a fine balance between welfare spending before the 2024 general elections, the reduction of subsidies given declines in global commodity prices, continued incentives for promoting manufacturing in India, continuing the infrastructure focus and a higher allocation for defence
BUSINESS
China's reopening post COVID and its impact in 2023
China’s rapid reopening will significantly impact the global economy in 2023.The end of ‘zero-COVID’ has implications for growth and inflation around the world. Figuring out its potential impact across asset classes is vital for global investors
BUSINESS
Be greedy when others are fearful
Recession, a prolonged war, energy shock, high interest rates leading to demand destruction and corporate earnings falling are the key themes in most 2023 market projections
BUSINESS
Black Swans in the Year of the Rabbit: Recession, recovery, rebound
Emerging markets will be back in favour with the peak US Dollar levels of 2022 providing a backdrop. As the US dollar retreats in 2023, we expect flows into EMs to pick up, in a renewed search for growth stories
BUSINESS
Will 2023 offer a Volcker moment to markets?
How soon the fight against inflation will be declared over will determine if the 2023 recession is soft or hard
BUSINESS
Year of the Rabbit: Recessions, deflation and earnings cuts
Fixed income investing will find favour in 2023 as higher rates offer more yield options for investors. After more than a decade of underperformance, emerging markets may outperform
BUSINESS
Investing when Good News is Bad News for the markets
What is certain is that 2023 should be a better year than 2022 and 2024 has a high probability of being a take-off year
BUSINESS
Impact of rising interest rates on US government finances
Can governments, which have been borrowing to pay their bills, running fiscal and trade deficits in an era of easy money, pay their bills when the easy money doors are slammed shut and higher interest rates raise the costs to service that debt?
BUSINESS
Oil Markets: Why 2023 is likely to be as volatile as 2022
Oil prices have cooled down as demand concerns have surfaced. An Opec+ meeting and a likely decision on a price cap on Russian crude could trigger more volatility ahead
BUSINESS
Why the ‘worse than Enron’ FTX meltdown will not spread contagion beyond cryptos
Financial markets are heaving a sigh of relief, as the FTX collapse so far is not spreading to other markets
BUSINESS
US Midterm Election Results: Reading the underlying numbers
As per present projections, Democrats could lose a net 6 seats by the time all the results are announced. This is a far better showing than the mid-term election results for Carter, Reagan, Clinton and Obama
BUSINESS
Blind spots that threaten financial stability
The risk to British pension funds was a sobering reminder that there may be many hidden minefields, many “Unknown Unknowns”, that can suddenly explode
BUSINESS
Potential outcomes for the US Midterm Elections: Policy and market implications
Historical precedent points to better markets post the elections, but this time around, there is a reactive Fed which is still in a rate hike mood
BUSINESS
China: Leadership question settled, markets sceptical
Xi Jinping is prioritising security over the economy and investors are voting with their feet
BUSINESS
When will the markets bottom?
For markets to bottom, we need to see peak inflation, peak US Dollar and peak interest rates
BUSINESS
More tightening ahead as major buyers of US Treasuries turn sellers
Volatility due to falling market depth and eroding investor appetite make for a very potent challenge in the coming weeks and months
BUSINESS
The ghost of Lehman brothers’ legacy revisits markets
Fragile markets lead to exaggerated reactions to events such as the new UK government shooting itself in the fiscal foot and Credit Suisse’s financial vulnerability
