Indian equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty opened sharply lower on Monday, extending Friday’s sell-off, as escalating tensions in West Asia and a surge in crude oil prices triggered broad-based risk aversion. At 09:16 am, the Sensex was down 1,187 points, or 1.5 percent, at 80,100.2, while the Nifty fell 341 points, or 1.4 percent, to 24,837 -- slipping decisively below the crucial 25,000 mark. Market breadth was sharply negative, with 2,551 shares declining against just 363 advances on the NSE.
The weakness followed a spike in crude prices amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty, which has revived concerns around inflation, fiscal pressures and global growth. Brent crude, after an initial surge, was trading near $76 a barrel, still elevated from recent levels, as investors assessed the duration and severity of the conflict and its implications for energy flows.
Asian markets were broadly lower, while US equity-index futures were also in the red, reflecting a global shift toward risk-off positioning. India VIX jumped nearly 15 percent to 15.73, signalling a sharp rise in volatility expectations.
The early slide reinforces the technical damage inflicted last week. Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, said the Nifty has decisively broken below its 200-day SMA near 25,300, indicating weakness in broader sentiment. “The immediate level to watch is 25,000. A sustained move below this mark could increase pressure, as the next significant support is placed in the 24,500-24,350 zone,” he said.
He added that the earlier support at 25,400 is now expected to act as strong resistance, with a decisive close above that level needed to trigger a pullback toward 25,600.
Hitesh Tailor of Choice Equity Broking said that the formation of a fourth consecutive red candle and the close below the 200-day EMA reflect increasing bearish dominance. Immediate support for the Nifty is seen at 25,000-25,050, while resistance lies in the 25,300-25,350 zone.
Bank Nifty also opened weak, trading below 60,000 in early deals. The index faces support in the 60,200-60,300 zone, with resistance seen at 60,800-60,900, according to Tailor.
The rise in crude weighed on aviation, auto, paint and other energy-intensive sectors. InterGlobe Aviation fell nearly 5 percent, Larsen & Toubro slipped over 3 percent, while Maruti Suzuki and Asian Paints also declined sharply. Realty stocks were among the worst hit, with the Nifty Realty index down nearly 4 percent.
On the other hand, ONGC gained nearly 4 percent, emerging as one of the top Nifty gainers, as higher crude prices could boost upstream realisations. Bharat Electronics and Hindalco also showed relative resilience.
Dr VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments, said the energy risk arising from crude remains the key market variable. “If Brent crude remains around $76, equity markets may remain weak but are unlikely to witness a big crash,” he said, cautioning that while war-related uncertainty warrants prudence, panic selling during crises has historically proved counterproductive. He advised investors to use weakness to gradually accumulate high-quality stocks in domestic consumption themes such as banking, automobiles, capital goods and defence.
Foreign institutional investors had sold equities worth Rs 7,536 crore in the previous session, while domestic institutions bought over Rs 12,000 crore, providing partial support.
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