Ukraine Crisis | US, Russia can back off without losing any face

(Image: AFP)

Looking at the statements from US officials as well as headlines in the western media, it would appear as if Russia is going to attack Ukraine any time now. Many nations have already urged their citizens to leave the country. The Russian authorities, however, have been saying, for weeks now that they have no intention of attacking Ukraine.

In these circumstances, it is not easy to guess what might happen in the coming days, weeks, or months. There is a massive geopolitical posturing both by Russia and the West.

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Moscow is posturing by deploying more than 100,000 troops at the Ukrainian border along with military exercises with Belarus, and drills near Crimea. The US and many European leaders have repeatedly warned that in case of military intervention in Ukraine, Moscow would face massive economic consequences. This could include stopping the Nord Stream 2 pipeline to Europe, and disconnecting Russia from the SWIFT.

As a result of these tensions, oil prices are hovering around $95 a barrel, and may touch $100 soon. The negative sentiment has started affecting major stock markets, with India’s Fifty falling ~532 points on February 14.

Despite geopolitical posturing, no major power is keen to go for a war over Ukraine. Diplomatic frenzy is underway to avoid another war in Ukraine. Many bilateral and multilateral meetings are taking place under various formats involving Russia, Ukraine, the US, France, Germany, and other European nations as well as the OSCE and NATO. This week, German Chancellor Olof Scholz is visiting Ukraine and Moscow. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will also visit Kiev and Berlin. Later, he will meet Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Geneva.

Although Ukraine is an important element of the current crisis, the main reasons for the tensions between Russia and the West are much larger. A stronger Russia is re-asserting its important role within the European security architecture. As a result of the crisis, it has brought its security concerns including implementation of the Minsk agreement and Ukraine’s NATO membership on the agenda.

While stuck in broader geopolitics, Ukraine is aware of its delicate situation. It has been at the receiving end since 2014. Thousands of its citizens have died, and it has lost Crimea. Although Blinken asserted that “Ukraine’s trajectory toward its Euro-Atlantic future has been clear”, the country has no realistic chance of becoming a NATO member as well as joining the European Union in the near future.

In fact, just a few days back, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned against creating too much “panic” concerning Ukraine, which was affecting its economy. On February 14, Ukraine’s ambassador to the United Kingdom indicated that to avoid war, Ukraine could drop its ambition to join NATO. Later, he backtracked, and asserted that “we are not a member of NATO right now and to avoid war we are ready for many concessions and that is what we are doing in conversations with the Russians”. Prior to his backtracking, officials in Russia and the UK found the statement useful in resolving the conflict. Later, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that conversations are important, but Ukraine’s right to join NATO cannot be traded away.

It is clear that the outcome on the future Russian role in European security will take years of diplomatic negotiations. But the beginning of any meaningful discussion on the topic may help de-escalating the situation in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin, however, is unlikely to de-escalate unless Russia receives what he calls “substantive response” to its proposals. While visiting Kyiv, Scholz said that he is "ready for serious dialogue with Russia" about security in Europe. Any positive movement in the coming days may help stabilise global markets.

Both Russia and the US can back off without losing any face. The US can claim that its tough stand has forced Russia to backtrack. Similarly, Russia can claim that it never had any intention of attacking Ukraine.

A stronger Russia and effective multi-polarity will also help India in navigating its multi-aligned foreign policy. New Delhi has trusted ties with Russia and its partnership with the West is growing stronger. It favours de-escalation “while taking into account legitimate security interests of all countries”. Any de-escalation will help sentiments in the markets and the global economy, which is slowly emerging from the pandemic.

Gulshan Sachdeva is Professor at the Centre for European Studies and & Coordinator, Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, Jawaharlal Nehru University.

Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.