Lok Sabha Polls: RJD-led INDIA bloc in Bihar can dent NDA tally, Congress remains weak link

RJD hopes Tejashwi’s popularity amongst youth, Nitish Kumar’s failing graph due to constant flip-flops, will help INDIA bloc.

INDIA bloc has announced its seat sharing pact in Bihar. Tejashwi Yadav-led Rashtriya Janata Dal will be contesting on 26 seats, Congress on 9 and Left Parties on 5 seats. RJD, the captain of the team, has strategically taken the reins and will be contesting on 7 more seats compared to 2019, undoing the wrongs in the last election.

Congress leaders are unhappy and have alleged that RJD has dumped ‘unwinnable’ seats on the party while denying it constituencies where it could have better prospects.

Congress has been denied some of its traditional stronghold seats as well as Purnea demanded by new joinee Pappu Yadav. Lalu Yadav's family seems to have settled scores with Pappu who had promised to merge his party with RJD but instead merged with Congress days before the announcement of pact.

In 2019, Lalu Yadav’s party contested on the lowest number of seats since its inception and recorded its worst ever performance failing to win a single seat. RJD hopes Tejashwi’s popularity amongst youth, Nitish Kumar’s failing graph due to constant flip-flops, and anti-incumbency against sitting NDA MPs will help INDIA bloc win a good number of seats in 2024 general elections.

Change in Alliance Matrix

Bihar will be witnessing a seven phase poll for 40 seats. In 2019, NDA had won 39 (BJP 17, JDU 16, LJP 6) and INDIA (erstwhile UPA) just 1 seat bagged by Congress. NDA has also finalised its seat sharing: BJP to contest on 17, JDU 16, LJP 5, HAM 1 and RLM 1 seat.

Both the alliances have undergone big changes. In 2019, Upendra Kushwaha’s RLSP, Jiten Manjhi’s HAM and Mukesh Sahani’s VIP were in UPA. They had contested on 12 seats and fared poorly scoring a duck. Twelve of these seats were available to INDIA to redistribute, 7 going to RJD, and 5 to Left parties (3 CPIML, 1 each to CPI, CPM).

Manjhi and Kushwaha have hopped on to NDA and have been given 1 seat each, much lower than they contested under UPA in 2019, clearly highlighting that RJD overestimated their strength in 2019.

The 2024 INDIA distribution is largely in line with the 2020 Vidhan Sabha seat sharing pact, 60-30-10, RJD-INC-LEFT.

Confident RJD Takes Lead

Tejashwi is banking on the employment opportunities created during his term as Deputy Chief Minister under Nitish Kumar, 4 lakh jobs as claimed in 1.5 years. He hopes to get significant traction amongst the 18-35 age bracket of voters who account for roughly half of the voter base in the state.

He has embarked on a yatra after Nitish Kumar’s gharwapsi to NDA and is attempting to expose his double speak. RJD is targeting the 16 seats where JDU candidates are contesting as it feels there is scope, the BJP voter may not turn out as enthusiastically for Nitish as for Modi.

RJD also seems to have expanded its Muslim Yadav vote bank in 2020 Vidhan Sabha polls, one of its greatest weaknesses. RJD was able to make a 10% dent in EBC / MBC vote of NDA in 2020 Vidhan Sabha polls. UPA won 110 versus NDA’s 125 seats in a house with a simple majority of 122.

The loss was mostly due to the poor 27% strike rate of Congress, which won just 19/70 seats. Both RJD and Left parties recorded a strike rate of 50%+. Had Congress won 12 more seats with a strike rate of 34% UPA / MGB would have formed the government.

Congress Looks Weak

This is why Congress is the weak link of the INDIA bloc which NDA will be focusing on its 9 seats. Further, the grand old party’s vote share largely comprises upper caste, minorities and SC-ST voters. Where it is contesting, RJD will be able to transfer votes (MY), but where RJD / Left is contesting its upper caste voters may not shift, posing a risk of seamless transfer and leakages in alliance.

While BJP is aware of waning popularity of Nitish, the fact that JDU received ¼ votes due to Modi factor and it being a national election, strategists hope will neutralize the risk to some extent.

BJP is the clear captain of NDA, while Congress still has this big brother attitude despite losing significant vote share in the Hindi heartland. Along with arithmetic, this creates chemistry issues for INDIA. However, it is a natural long standing alliance unlike many others SP/AAP/Uddhav Sena which Congress has formed.

An interesting battle on the cards in Bihar, NDA needs to maintain tally to accomplish Mission 400, with yuva neta Tejashwi flexing muscles to make a dent.

Amitabh Tiwari is a former corporate and investment banker-turned political strategist and commentator. Twitter: @politicalbaaba. Views are personal, and do not represent the stance of this publication.