Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Lalu Prasad's strategic blueprint in curtailing Pappu Yadav's clout in Purnea power dynamics

A file photo of RJD chief Lalu Prasad with senior Congress leader Rahul Gandhi.

The Purnea Lok Sabha constituency has transformed into a battleground of political rivalry, spurred by former MP Pappu Yadav's resolute ambition to contest the 2024 Lok Sabha elections from this prestigious seat under the Congress banner. The spotlight intensified with the nomination of Bima Bharti by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) within the ‘Mahagathbandhan’ (grand alliance).

Amid this fervour, Pappu, former leader of the Jan Adhikar Party held onto hope that the Congress would vigorously negotiate with the RJD for control over this crucial constituency, even expressing a willingness to stake his life for it. However, Pappu was disheartened when the seat was allocated to the RJD.

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Internal Contradictions Plague Grand Alliance

The internal discord within the grand alliance partners is evident, with Pappu displaying reluctance to concede. He has officially declared his intent to contest the general elections from the constituency, with plans to file his nomination on April 2. In an interview with a Hindi television channel, Pappu highlighted the overwhelming support he has garnered from the grassroots level, motivating him to vie for the Purnea seat. He reiterated his commitment to contest solely under the banner of the Congress Party, leaving no stone unturned in his campaign efforts. While it remains uncertain whether he will run on a Congress ticket or as an independent candidate, such a decision could complicate matters for RJD candidate and former minister Bima Bharti.

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Bharti's Candidacy in Purnea Sparks Tensions with Pappu

Adding to the intrigue, Bharti's defection from the Janata Dal (United) to join the RJD prompted Lalu to appoint her as the RJD's candidate for Purnea, granting her the party symbol (lantern). Pappu's disappointment escalated as Bharti secured the symbol, prompting him to adamantly declare his determination not to abandon Purnea. Despite his impassioned pleas to both the Congress and Lalu, his appeals were met with indifference.

Bharti's Political Track Record vs Pappu's Illustrious Career

Bharti boasts an extensive political track record, having served as a five-time MLA from the Rupauli assembly within the Purnea Lok Sabha constituency. Notably, she has held the position as an independent MLA once, represented the RJD once, and thrice held the seat under the JDU. Additionally, she has also served as a cabinet minister. On the other hand, Pappu enjoys a similarly illustrious political career, having served as an MLA once and an MP five times. He has represented the Purnea constituency thrice and the Madhepura seat twice. His wife Ranjit Ranjan is a Rajya Sabha MP of the Congress. However, in the 2020 assembly elections, Pappu encountered a significant setback in Madhepura, securing only the third position with a meager 97,000 votes, marking a crushing defeat for him.

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Pappu at Crossroads: Party Loyalty Shapes Political Trajectory

Political observers are of the view that Pappu is currently at a critical crossroads with few viable options ahead. He faces the decision of either resigning from the Congress and running as an independent candidate or accepting the seat offered to him by the Congress party. The choices he makes at this crucial moment will undoubtedly shape his political trajectory and have a significant impact on the dynamics of the forthcoming elections in Purnea.

Pappu's Merger Plans Derailed

Reports suggest that Pappu engaged in discussions with Lalu and Tejashwi Yadav ahead of merging his party with the Congress. Later, during his visit to Delhi, he announced the merger of his party with the Congress. Pappu harboured high hopes that both the Congress and Lalu would endorse him as their candidate from Purnea. However, the unexpected entry of Bharti into the electoral arena has completely disrupted his meticulously crafted plans.

Lalu Revives Traditional Political Tactics

Experts say that these recent developments indicate a revival of Lalu's traditional political tactics. His strategy appears to prioritise securing victory in the Purnea seat by mobilising the OBC community. Bharti's affiliation with the OBC Gangaunta caste aligns well with this approach, leading to the foregrounding of the OBC identity in the electoral narrative. Bharti's campaign narrative revolves around allegations that Nitish Kumar plotted the imprisonment of her husband and son, resulting in her humiliation as a woman from a backward community. By granting her a ticket, Lalu is portrayed as championing the cause of women and restoring their dignity within the political arena.

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Seemanchal: Hub of Muslim Politics in Bihar

Seemanchal emerges as the epicentre of Muslim politics in Bihar, with districts like Katihar, Purnea, Araria, and Kishanganj boasting Muslim populations ranging from 40 percent to 65 percent. In Bihar's caste-based political equation, Yadavs, classified among the backward groups, hold a 15 percent vote share. It's evident that the MY (Muslim-Yadav) combination, perceived as Lalu's primary support base, wields considerable influence and could potentially decide the fate of a party in numerous constituencies across Bihar.

Bharti's Broad-based Appeal Reshaping Political Dynamics

In Bihar's polarised political landscape, the tilt in the OBC vote share could indeed be decisive in the battle for 2024, potentially giving an edge to Bharti. She strategically appeals to both gender and caste dynamics, highlighting her connections with OBCs while emphasising broad-based support across communities. She leverages an inclusive narrative, claiming backing from various caste groups. In a different approach, Pappu also asserts his appeal across caste lines, aligning with Bharti. It appears that Lalu places greater trust in Bharti over Pappu, possibly due to the association of backward castes with the MY combination. Notably, the Mandal caste members constitute nearly 10 percent of the Purnea Lok Sabha constituency, with the Gangota caste, to which Bharti belongs, comprising around 75,000 individuals.

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RJD's Power Dynamics Shift Amid Rising Yadav Leader

Lalu, a seasoned politician and astute strategist, maintains significant sway over Bihar's political landscape. While the Congress and RJD align in political objectives, the emergence of another influential Yadav (Pappu Yadav) leader in the state could unsettle existing power dynamics within the RJD, potentially challenging the leadership authority of Lalu's son and political heir, Tejashwi Yadav. Lalu's move to sideline figures like Pappu might aim to safeguard Tejashwi's position as the primary influential Yadav leader.

Moreover, the Congress's organisational structure in Bihar is fragile, requiring alliances and backing from influential regional players like Lalu to secure electoral success. The grand old party, therefore, finds itself in a position where it cannot afford to oppose the directives of the RJD chief, given its reliance on Lalu's support to bolster its electoral prospects in Bihar.

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Pappu's Decision Rattles

Reports say Lalu extended an invitation to Pappu to merge the Jan Adhikar Party with the RJD. However, Pappu opted to merge his party with the Congress instead. Speculation within Bihar's political circles suggests that this decision may have triggered resentment from Lalu, who could have been waiting for an opportunity to retaliate. Initially, Pappu was offered the opportunity to contest from Madhepura and later from Supaul. However, these seats have now been allocated to the RJD. This unfolding sequence of events undoubtedly deals a significant blow to Pappu, indicating that his refusal to align directly with Lalu may have repercussions for his political aspirations.

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2019 Lok Sabha Elections: NDA Asserts Dominance

Reflecting on the previous Lok Sabha elections, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), comprising BJP, JD (U), and LJP, asserted dominance in the 2019 elections by securing 39 out of 40 seats. In contrast, the Mahagathbandhan, led by RJD, INC, and RLSP, could only clinch one seat. The BJP emerged as the leading party, winning 17 seats with a vote share of 24.1 percent, followed by JD(U) with 16 seats and a vote share of 22.3 percent, while LJP secured 6 seats with a vote share of 8 percent. The INC managed to secure only one seat with a vote share of 7.9 percent.