Here is what Nitish Kumar’s latest U-turn means for Bihar and national politics

Nitish Kumar has switched camps five times since 2013

Nitish Kumar held his first cabinet meeting on January 29, a day after he was sworn in as the Bihar chief minister for a record ninth time and the second time in as many years but with a different partner.

Kumar left the Grand Alliance his Janata Dal (United) stitched with the Rashtriya Janata Dal and Congress to walk straight into the BJP-led NDA, which he had left in 2022 after sharing power for close to two years.

His decision not only altered the Bihar political math but dealt a body blow to the fledgling opposition Indian National Developmental Alliance (INDIA) bloc, which he was instrumental in bringing together and was even talked off, briefly, as the PM candidate.

Read: MC Explains: Nitish gifts NDA five seats in Rajya Sabha against his return

Kumar’s latest switch brightens hopes of the NDA repeating its 2019 performance when it won 39 of the 40 seats in the state. Bihar is important for Narendra Modi’s winning a third straight term as the prime minister.

An electric engineer by training, the 72-year-old has been engineering and re-engineering his alliances earning him the moniker Paltu Ram. His U-turns have left his rivals and allies, new and old, scratching their heads.

Here is what his latest change of partners mean for Bihar and the larger political landscape:

No permanent friends and enemies  

Just a few months ago, Kumar said he would prefer to die rather than go with the NDA. “I would prefer to die rather than joining them (BJP). They (BJP) filed cases against Tejashwi Yadav and his father to bring me to their side,” he said in 2023.

In 2013, the JD (U) broke its alliance with the BJP and joined hands with the RJD and Congress. In 2020, he aligned with the BJP and become the chief minister even though the BJP had more seats than his party. In August 2022, he severed the ties.

Addressing a rally in Lauriya in West Champaran district on February 25, 2023, Union home minister Amit Shah said the BJP’s door were closed forever for Kumar and called him Aaya Ram Gaya Ram (turncoat).

His party leader Samrat Choudhary, sworn in as one of the two deputies of Kumar on January 28, said he would only remove his turban only after Kumar was removed as the CM. He had his turban on when he took oath on January 29.

Read more: Nitish Kumar, the man of many U-turns: Here's a timeline of his changing political alliances

But it is also in the past with the two sides ready to contest the Lok Sabha elections together one again. A decision on seat-sharing will be announced soon.

Blow to INDIA bloc

Kumar has led the effort to unite the opposition parties to take on the BJP and Modi. His dramatic exit has sent INDIA bloc into tizzy, with many questioning Congress’ failure to keep the flock together.

Kumar expected a leadership role in INDIA bloc but the Congress dithered and he started sending feelers to the other side.

In a virtual meeting of the bloc on January 13, Left leader Sitaram Yechury proposed Kumar’s name for the convenor of INDIA bloc, which was backed by RJD chief Lalu Yadav and NCP leader Sharad Pawar. Rahul Gandhi, however, hinted the decision should await Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee’s approval, which reportedly miffed Kumar.

The Congress has to take regional parties seriously and its “arrogant attitude” will cause further damage, political scientists and opposition leaders say.

“The grand old party of the country is undermining the potential of regional importance and trying to maintain dominance over the opposition block. This attitude needs to be changed to keep the parties intact,” National Conference’s Lok Sabha MP Hasnain Masoodi said.

Trinamool Congress has decided to go it alone in West Bengal and AAP in Punjab.

“If Congress doesn’t work in close coordination with its alliance partners, political situations can turn anytime. Rahul Gandhi who has embarked on a yatra which is suicidal should have been at the forefront in solving all these nitty-gritties. The party can no longer stay away from ground realities,” political commentator Rasheed Kidwai said.

Mandir plus Mandal in 2024

While the RJD is suddenly on its own, while helping BJP emerge as a strong second pole. In the assembly, JD-U has just 45 seats while BJP has 78 but Kumar will be chief minister heading into Lok Sabha polls.

Political observers say the move is a blow to opposition’s caste plank against BJP’s Hindutva politics. With the inauguration of Ram Mandir, they say it is no longer Mandal versus Mandir and changed into Mandir plus Mandal.

Kumar’s decision to conduct caste census saw Gandhi make a demand for a similar nationwide survey, which would have been one of its main poll plank. But Kumar has not put paid to the demand.

The Centre’s decision to confer the Bharat Ratna on former Bihar chief minister Karpoori Thakur is expected to help the BJP, as he pioneered job quotas for backward classes (OBC).