BJP-led NDA will win 38 of 40 seats in Bihar: Opinion poll

PM Modi and CM Nitish Kumar

The BJP-led NDA will sweep Bihar by winning 38 of the 40 Lok Sabha seats, News18's Mega Opinion Poll has revealed.

According to the survey, the NDA will win with vote share of 58 percent while the INDIA bloc will win two seats with 28 percent vote share in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls. Bihar is crucial for the BJP as it seeks a third consecutive term at the Centre in 2024.

Recently, Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar resigned from his position and staked a claim to form the government with BJP support. His decision not only altered the Bihar political math but dealt a body blow to the INDIA bloc which he was instrumental in bringing together.

Past performances of the alliance

The tried-and-tested alliance of JD(U) and BJP have fared well in the 2019 and 2009 Lok Sabha elections and the 2020 Assembly polls. In 2019, the NDA in Bihar comprised the BJP, JD(U) and Lok Janshakti Party (LJP).  With a combined vote share of 54.34%, the alliance won 39 of the 40 seats.

In the 2014 Lok Sabha election, the JD(U) had contested 38 seats independently. It won just 2 with 16.04 percent of the vote share. The NDA, comprising the BJP, LJP and one other regional party, had won 31 seats, with 39.41 vote share.  The 2009 Lok Sabha polls also saw the BJP-JD(U) alliance working effectively. Together, they had won 32 seats with 37.97 percent of the vote share.

In the 2020 Assembly polls, the NDA included the BJP, JD(U), LJP and two smaller parties in the state. The alliance narrowly crossed the 122-seat majority mark in the 243-member House, with 125 MLAs and 37.26% of the vote share. The BJP emerged as the party with the second largest number of seats and vote share, at 74 seats (from 110 contested) and 19.46 percent votes.

in August 2022 Nitish had dumped the BJP to stitch an alternative alliance with the RJD, Congress and Left parties.