India needs to weigh its options in Bangladesh

Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina will be visiting India next week and a meeting is scheduled with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. (File image)

It is natural for the dog to wag the tail. The tail must not wag the dog. India should remember that in its dealings with Bangladesh and the ruling Sheikh Hasina government of Awami League. The Bangladeshi Prime Minister will be visiting India next week in connection with the G20 summit. Meeting Prime Minister Narendra Modi is the primary objective of this visit.

Hasina is expecting India to offer up to $1.5 billion in aid. It would help Dhaka meet the conditionalities to get the second tranche of the $4.7 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in November, ahead of the election in December-January. As of July, Bangladesh’s reserve, net of highly sticky foreign currency loans offered to businessmen close to the ruling party, dropped to $ 23.65 billion, equivalent to the import bill of four months. IMF wants Bangladesh to maintain a net reserve of $24 billion. The IMF loan is peanuts to Bangladesh’s foreign currency requirements. But it would be a validation of the economic management of the Hasina government and would open doors to loans from China and other destinations.

Supporting friendly nations is necessary. However, it is time Delhi must question if the unstinted support to a hugely unpopular Bangladeshi leadership, which has been in power for 15 years through manufactured mandates, has outlived its purpose. A much bigger question is, who is in the driving seat in the India-Bangladesh relationship? Going by the sequence of events since 2014, it seems Delhi has put all eggs in one basket. Apparently, Dhaka is making full use of it by forcing India to comply.

Jamaat And China Card

Hasina visited Johannesburg for the BRICS summit earlier this month. A considered hype was created in Bangladesh about the country’s prospect of joining the group. The actual purpose was to meet the Chinese Premier Xi Jinping. According to a Chinese official release on August 24, the meeting
was held. Sources in Bangladesh say Beijing would offer a sizable loan to Dhaka before the election.

Meanwhile, BRICS didn’t extend any invitation to Bangladesh and, supporters of both the ruling Awami League and those who oppose it, are blaming India for blocking Bangladesh’s way. A few weeks before the BRICS summit, Bangladeshi newspapers reported the government’s “decision” to join the “China-led” Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). It was a premature claim, evidently aimed at India. To cut the long story short, Delhi is now forced to pick up tabs on Hasina’s behalf and, the Indian government may be blamed for allowing that to happen.

Bangladesh is a by-product of the religion-based Partition and, India was always unpopular there beyond the realms of the select representatives of the intellectual class. This, coupled with India’s bad experience with the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Jamaat-e-Islami government during 2001-2006; helped Hasina to present herself as the only ally of Delhi. An open stance against Jamaat added to India’s misery. In December 2013, days before the election, India’s foreign secretary, Sujatha Singh, told Bangladeshi media about her efforts to keep Jamaat out of power. Jamaat was deregistered by the court in August 2013, for upholding Sharia law ahead of the national constitution. But Sujatha’s comment helped common Bangladeshis connect the dots.

Awami League won 151 of the 300 seats unopposed in that election, as its arch-rival Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) remained out of the fray in solidarity with Jamaat. Hasina henceforth took Indian support for granted and started hobnobbing with the Islamists and China. Islamists were expected to compensate for the lack of popularity and China came with the money bag. The 2018 election was highly rigged, against Indian wishes. Dhaka made all the right promises before the election but ended up doing the opposite. Common Bangladeshis blamed India for ruining whatever little democracy they had.

So far, India extended nearly $10 billion in financial support to Bangladesh. This includes over $7 billion line of credit in different projects, a $1.6 billion dirt cheap loan to the 2x660 megawatt Rampal thermal power station, and others. The result is not very inspiring. Many Indian projects are suffering inordinate delays vis-à-vis Chinese projects. The completed first unit of Rampal power station goes out of production at regular intervals, as Bangladesh cites a lack of forex to buy coal. The fact remains that Hasina’s Bangladesh has created a strong political economy that is antagonistic to Indian projects. They favour China, as it keeps the tap open for easy money through cost escalations.

The ruling politics fell strongly in the grip of businesses over the last five years. They enjoy easy access to bank finance, keep loans unpaid and are popularly held for siphoning off money. Their sprawling media empire shapes public opinion in China’s favour.

On the political front, Jamaat has infiltrated every organization, including the Awami League. They control the leadership positions in Hefazat-e-Islam, a non-political entity with a huge following among madrasa students and teachers. Hasina already built bridges with Hefazat and accommodated their demands. To sum up, Jamaat and China have strengthened their grip on Bangladesh. And, Dhaka is using them as a trump card against India.

Jamaat May Throw Surprises

Theoretically, the legal barriers to Jamaat’s return to the electoral space are removed, as they amended the party constitution and changed the name. Delhi is not keen to see them back in the fray. However, a staunch opposition might prove risky. Make no mistake, unbridled corruption and unchecked power have taken the last bit of wind from Hasina’s favour. Bangladeshis are now eager for a change.

With party supremo, Begum Khaleda Zia serving a jail term and her son, Tarique Rahman, living in exile, BNP is weak. It means Jamaat’s participation is crucial for the Opposition. Blocking their way would further damage India’s image in Bangladesh. Moreover, if not allowed entry, Jamaat may support the coalition of smaller Islamic parties (Islamic Oikyo Jot). It may bring them to power through the backdoors and may ruin India’s prospects beyond imagination. Shouldn’t it be better to face the enemy than let him lose?

Pratim Ranjan Bose is an independent columnist, researcher, and consultant. His Twitter handle is @pratimbose. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.