Gujarat Poll Results | National party stature a big takeaway for AAP

AAP secured five seats and a vote share of over 12.9 percent in Gujarat. (Image: Reuters/File)

In less than a decade, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is all set to attain the status of a national party, courtesy Gujarat, the home state of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah.

It required two seats and 6 percent vote share in Gujarat to reach this milestone, and got more than that. In the final tally, AAP secured five seats and a vote share of over 12.9 percent.

According to rules, a political outfit requires two seats and 6 percent vote share in four states to get the stature of a national party. Till now, there were eight recognised national parties in India. Apart from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress, the others are the Trinamool Congress, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), the Communist Party of India, the Communist Party of India (Marxist), the Nationalist Congress Party, and the National People’s Party.

AAP, which traces its roots to a anti-corruption agitation against the then Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government in 2011-12, is already in power in Delhi and Punjab. It also has two legislators in Goa. The party also secured over 3.9 million votes in Gujarat.

Though AAP leaders, especially Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, talked about unexpected results in Gujarat, the ruling BJP swept the elections, registering its best-ever tally of 158 seats in the state. Its previous best was 127 seats in the 2002 assembly elections.

Right from the day Kejriwal decided to enter the Gujarat fray, it was widely expected that AAP would cut into Congress’ vote. It has visibly impacted the grand old party in the tribal belt, and in many seats in the Saurashtra region.

Kejriwal had campaigned aggressively in Gujarat and managed to create some buzz in the state. His primary target was to dislodge the Congress as the main opposition party, and to some extent succeeded in doing so, at least in the battle of perceptions.

As the elections progressed, AAP emerged as the main challenger to the BJP. Kejriwal used the buzz created in the media to the party’s favour.

Soon after its astounding victory in Punjab, AAP went all guns blazing in neighbouring Himachal Pradesh. However, it had to apply brakes after Delhi Health Minister Satyendra Jain was arrested by the Enforcement Directorate (ED) in a money laundering case on May 30. In the final election results in the hill state, AAP secured just over 1 percent vote share.

Kejriwal then decided to shift his focus on Gujarat. The idea was to challenge Modi on his home turf.

AAP’s entry into the electoral fray visibly made the BJP jittery, though BJP leaders maintained that their fight was primarily against the Congress. The Prime Minister and the Home Minister insisted that Gujarat has had a history of bipolar politics between the BJP and the Congress, and that there was no scope for a third party.

In the middle of the Gujarat campaign, the elections to the Municipal Corporation of Delhi (MCD) were announced, a move seen as an attempt to restrict Kejriwal to the national capital.

Winning the MCD elections was an equally huge challenge for AAP given that the BJP had ruled the civic body for 15 consecutive years. AAP expected to sweep the MCD polls but barely managed to scrape through with 134 out of the total 250 seats. The BJP bagged 104 seats despite a strong anti-incumbency against it.

Contesting three elections simultaneously also led to resources crunch for AAP with its lone crowd puller Kejriwal having to frequently shuttle between Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh, and Delhi.

The Gujarat outcome might not have been on the expected lines but it has provided a ground for AAP to work for improving its prospects in the 2027 elections. AAP leaders cite the outcome of the 2017 assembly elections in Punjab to suggest that the party would get to form the government in Gujarat in the near future.

That said, the national party stature will give a major boost to Kejriwal’s expansion plans. AAP will now try to get a foothold in Karnataka, which goes to polls in March-April next year. It has also set its eyes on Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, where assembly elections will be held in November-December 2023.