Uttar Pradesh bypolls: Why stakes are higher than ever for Yogi Aditynath, Akhilesh Yadav

Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath has appointed 16 senior ministers to oversee the party’s campaign efforts across these constituencies.

The upcoming by-elections for nine assembly seats in Uttar Pradesh have drawn significant political attention, especially after the BJP's underperformance in the recent general elections. Reports of internal discord within the state BJP unit have added to the stakes, making these by-polls a pivotal moment for the party.

Read: EC announces schedule for assembly bypolls

The elections are scheduled for nine seats. However, polling in the tenth seat, Milkipur in Ayodhya, has been deferred due to a pending court case. The bypolls will be contested in the constituencies of Karhal, Katehari, Kundarki, Ghaziabad, Khair, Meerapur, Phulpur, Majhawan, and Sisamau. Among these, four are held by the Samajwadi Party (SP), with the RLD and Nishad Party each controlling one seat, and the BJP holding the remaining three.

Polling in all these nine constituencies will be held on November 13 and results will be declared on November 23.

To ensure a strong performance, in the backdrop of rift between party organization of the government, Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath has appointed 16 senior ministers to oversee the party’s campaign efforts across these constituencies.

The by-elections represent a key opportunity for the BJP to solidify its position in the state, but the party faces challenges in maintaining harmony with alliance partners, particularly the Nishad Party, over seat-sharing arrangements.

The BJP wants to contest eight seats leaving one for RLD. The Nishad Party is staking claim on one or two seats. “The principle of coalition dharma should be followed,” Sanjay Nishad, minister in the Yogi government said

Opposition Strategy

The Samajwadi Party, under Akhilesh Yadav’s leadership, has allied with the Congress for the by-elections. While the SP has announced candidates for five seats, it is expected to allocate two seats to Congress, despite initial disagreements over the number of seats requested. This partnership is seen as a strategic counterbalance to the BJP-led coalition, presenting a united opposition front.

Key SP candidates include Tej Pratap Yadav in Karhal, a seat vacated by Akhilesh Yadav after his Lok Sabha victory from Kannauj, and Naseem Solanki, wife of jailed SP leader Irfan Solanki, who will contest from Sisamau. Other candidates are Mustafa Siddiqui in Phulpur, Shobhavati Verma in Katehari, and Jyoti Bind in Majhawan.

The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) has also announced its candidates for most of the constituencies, adding another dimension to the by-election battle. With the BSP, SP-Congress alliance, and the BJP all vying for influence, the political landscape of Uttar Pradesh is set for a high-stakes contest.

“These by-elections are seen as a critical barometer of the shifting political dynamics in Uttar Pradesh. For the BJP, they offer a chance to stabilize the party’s standing after recent challenges, while for the SP-Congress alliance, it is an opportunity to make inroads and build momentum. The outcome could shape the strategies and alliances ahead of the more significant electoral battles on the horizon,” political analyst and senior journalist Sharat Pradhan said.

Constituencies in focus

Karhal (Mainpuri)

The Karhal seat, situated in Mainpuri district, became vacant after Samajwadi Party (SP) president Akhilesh Yadav resigned following his victory in the Lok Sabha elections from Kannauj. Historically, this constituency is considered a stronghold of the SP. Tej Pratap Singh Yadav, a member of the influential Yadav family, is will contest on SP's ticket.

Katehari (Ambedkar Nagar)

The Katehari seat was vacated by Lalji Verma after his victory in the Ambedkar Nagar Lok Sabha elections. The BJP faces a tough challenge here as the NDA needs to strengthen its standing with Nishad voters. Swatantra Deo Singh, Daya Shankar Mishra, and Sanjay Nishad are working on BJP's campaign in this region. Shobhavati Verma, wife of SP MP Lalji Verma, is SP candidate.

Majhawan (Mirzapur)

Majhawan’s MLA, Vinod Kumar Bind, vacated his seat after winning the Bhadohi Lok Sabha election. The Nishad Party, led by Sanjay Nishad, is lobbying to contest this seat in the bypolls. The BJP has assigned ministers Anil Rajbhar, Ashish Patel, Ravindra Jaiswal, and Ramkesh Nishad to prepare the party’s strategy in this constituency. Jyoti Bind is SP candidate from this constituency.

Phulpur (Prayagraj)

Praveen Singh Patel vacated Phulpur after his successful run for the Phulpur Lok Sabha seat. The Yogi government has tasked ministers Rakesh Sachan and Daya Shankar Singh with ensuring a strong BJP performance in this seat. Mustafa Siddiqui is SP candidate from this constituency. BSP has given ticket to Shibran Paasi.

Kundarki (Moradabad)

Zia-Ur-Rahman Barq’s resignation after winning the Sambhal Lok Sabha seat has left Kundarki open for contest. The BJP has deployed ministers Dharmpal Singh, JPS Rathore, Jaswant Saini, and Gulab Devi to lead their campaign in the area.

Khair (Aligarh)

Anoop Singh vacated the Khair seat to contest the Hathras Lok Sabha seat. With the RLD now part of the NDA, the BJP hopes to leverage the significant presence of Jat voters in this constituency. Lakshmi Narayan Choudhari and Sandeep Singh are leading the BJP’s campaign efforts here.

Merrapur (Muzaffarnagar)

Chandan Chauhan of the RLD resigned from Merrapur to run in the Bijnor Lok Sabha seat, which he won. The BJP, which lost to Chauhan in the 2022 Assembly elections, is keen to make gains here, with ministers Anil Kumar, Somendra Tomar, and K P Mallik tasked with preparations. BSP has fielded Shah Nazar from this seat

Ghaziabad (Ghaziabad)

Atul Garg resigned from the Ghaziabad Assembly seat after being nominated for the Ghaziabad Lok Sabha seat. Ministers Sunil Sharma, Brijesh Singh, and Kapildev Agrawal have been entrusted with keeping voter engagement high for the BJP in this urban constituency. SP may give this seat to Congress

Sisamau (Kanpur Nagar)

This seat was vacated after the disqualification of SP leader Hazi Irfan Solanki, following his sentencing in a legal case. BJP is looking to make inroads in this SP stronghold with local ministers overseeing preparations. Naseem Solanki, wife of jailed SP leader Irfan Solanki, will contest from Sisamau in Kanpur

Legal dispute delayed Milkipur by-election

The by-election for the Milkipur assembly seat was stalled due to a petition filed in the Allahabad High Court. The petition challenged the validity of documents submitted by SP candidate Awadhesh Prasad during the 2022 assembly elections, where he defeated BJP's Baba Gorakhnath by over 13,000 votes. The pending petition had prevented the Election Commission from announcing the by-election for this seat.

In a video statement, Baba Gorakhnath's lawyer, Advocate Rudra Vikram Singh, clarified that the legal case, which had blocked the by-election process, would be withdrawn. He emphasized that since Awadhesh Prasad is no longer an MLA from Milkipur, the petition no longer holds ground.
"We will appeal to the High Court to withdraw the petition within the next couple of days, allowing the by-election process to move forward," Singh said