Jharkhand Elections 2024: Opinion poll predicts victory for BJP-led NDA, JMM-Congress staring at defeat

The Matrize survey for Jharkhand Assembly elections has projected a clear victory for the BJP-led NDA. (File Photo: PTI)

Jharkhand Election Survey Result 2024: The Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance is on track to register an emphatic victory in the Jharkhand Assembly elections, winning 45-50 seats in the 81-member Assembly, a survey by Matrize agency has found.

The Assembly elections in Jharkhand come on the back of dramatic developments in the state's political landscape, setting up a high-stakes clash between the INDIA bloc and NDA partners. While the ruling INDIA bloc comprises the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, Congress and the Rashtriya Janata Dal, the BJP, AJSU, JD(U) and the LJP constitute the NDA.

As per the findings of the Matrize survey, the INDIA bloc is likely to be limited to victories in 18-25 seats in an Assembly where the majority mark stands at 41 seats.

The Opposition NDA, on the other hand, is expected to win 45-50 seats while the remaining seats are likely to be bagged by others. As part of the seat-sharing agreements among NDA partners, the BJP is contesting 68 seats in the state, while AJSU is contesting 10 seats, JDU 2 seats, and LJP 1 seat.

In the previous Assembly elections held in 2019, the JMM-Congress combine emerged as the winner, displacing the NDA government led by Chief Minister Raghubar Das of the BJP. The JMM led by Hemant Soren won 30 seats and the Congress bagged 16 seats and formed the government.

The NDA lagged behind winning 25 seats while ally AJSU won 2 seats. The JVM(P) led by former Chief Minister Babulal Marandi won three seats.

A victory for the NDA will come as a significant boost for the NDA which lost out the key tribal vote in the Lok Sabha elections held earlier this year. The BJP managed to win 9 of the 14 seats in the tribal-dominant state while the INDIA bloc bagged 5. The NDA had won 13 of the 14 seats in the general elections held in 2019.

After the Lok Sabha election results, the BJP has focused its strategy on addressing tribal issues and winning back this key vote bloc. The party has also ramped up its focus on the issue of Bangladeshi infiltrators, "demographic change" and the promise of implementation of the Uniform Civil Code in the state in its bid to shore up Hindu votes.

Elections to the 81-member Jharkhand Assembly are scheduled to be held in two phases on November 13 and November 20 while the results will be declared on November 23. The campaigning for the first phase of elections ends at 5 PM on Monday, November 11. While 38 seats will go to polls in the first phase on November 13, the second phase will see voters exercise their franchise in the remaining 43 seats on November 20.