Caste Calculus: How BJP beat Congress at its own game in Haryana

The BJP won 48 seats in the 90-member Haryana Assembly. (PTI)

The Haryana election results have dealt a huge blow to the Congress’ grand plans of returning to power in the state after a decade. Finishing second for the third time in as many elections, the BJP’s victory defied exit poll predictions as well as Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s claims about his party storming back to power.

Among the many takeaways for the Congress from the Haryana outcome, one of the major messages emerging is the setback to the caste census and caste politics agenda led by the Leader of Opposition in Lok Sabha and highlighted time and again through speeches and making it part of its manifesto and speeches all through his campaign.

The presumption behind the repeated claims of a wave of support in the Congress was perhaps based on an understanding that a reiteration of the caste census demand would draw the support of Other Backward Classes (OBCs) and Dalits who form a significant chunk of Haryana’s population.

The reality that emerged from the EVMs on October 8, however, proved contrary to the Congress’ tall claims in the state. The party managed to garner only 37 seats against the BJP’s tally of 48, and fell 9 seats short of the majority mark of 46 in the 90-member Assembly.

A survey carried out by CSDS-Lokniti shows that the Congress managed to mobilise what it believed to be its core support base. Only, the BJP did it better! As per the findings of the survey published in The Hindu on Thursday, a resounding 50 percent of the Jatavs, who form half of the total Scheduled Caste (SC) population in the state, voted for Congress. However, 35 percent of them also voted for the BJP. This is the same community that Kumari Selja belongs to.

Other than Jatavs, SC groups overwhelmingly voted for the BJP. As per the survey, the BJP garnered 45 percent of votes from non-Jatav SCs while 33 percent voted for the Congress. The party had fielded 17 Dalits in the Haryana elections this time, hoping to draw support from the community that accounts for 21 percent of the state’s population.

The Jat community, which the Congress had hoped would rally behind it as it did in the Lok Sabha, also appeared to have gravitated. As per the CSDS-Lokniti survey, while a resounding 53 percent voted in Congress’ favour, the BJP had managed to cause a split of the remaining 47 percent. Of them, 28 percent voted for the BJP.

The Jat community had been angry with the BJP for bringing an end to their dominance in the administrative control of the government for a decade. In Congress’ Bhupinder Singh Hooda, they saw a towering figure from their community who could re-establish their dominance in the state. Notably, Manohar Khattar and Nayab Saini, both chief ministers picked by the BJP, are non-Jats.

It was keeping this sentiment in mind that the Congress fielded 27 Jat candidates in the elections this time. However, only 13 of them won.

Among upper castes, a majority of voters from the Brahmin (51% vs 31% for Congress), Punjabi Khattri (68% vs 18%) and other upper castes (59% vs 22%) also voted for the BJP over the Congress.

The caste-wise breakup of votes as per the CSDS survey further shows that 44 percent of Gujjars voted in favour of the Congress while 37 percent voted for the BJP. On the other hand, a resounding 62 percent of Yadavs voted for BJP while only 25 percent voted for the Congress.

Among minority groups, Congress garnered 59 percent Muslim votes, 7 percent went to the BJP, 3 percent to the INLD-BSP combine while 31 percent voted for Others. Similarly, 47 percent of Sikhs voted for Congress while 21 percent voted for BJP, 17 percent voted for BSP-INLD and 15 percent for Others.