India's population growth slows down, despite surpassing China

Although India has now become the world’s most populous country after surpassing China, data shows a softened rate of growth and falling fertility rates.

According to the State of World Population report recently published by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), India’s estimated total population has reached 1.429 billion, around 2.9 million more than China’s population of 1.426 billion.

But does this mean that there are too many people being born in India? Data says that’s not the case. In fact, India’s population growth rates have been falling for many years.

While India’s fertility rate stood at 5.73 in 1950, the earliest year for which the data is available with the UN, and 3.30 during the start of this millennium, it has come down to 2 in 2023. This is lower than 2.1, which is considered to be the replacement fertility level.

Fertility rate is calculated as the estimated number of children per woman in the population. Replacement fertility level is the level of fertility at which a population exactly replaces itself from one generation to the next.

This decline in fertility rates has been observed in many countries across the world. “Changes in fertility rates will do little to change our population’s current trajectory of growth (for the next 25 years, two-thirds of all population growth will be driven by past growth),” said the UNFPA in a supplementary article released along with its report.

The growth in total population despite a decreasing fertility rate also points to the improved rates of newborns surviving and making it to adulthood. Life expectancy at birth in India has gone up from just 41.72 in 1950 to 72.03 in 2023.

In fact, according to the UNFPA report, the decline in the fertility rate in itself could be a result of greater freedoms enjoyed by people, especially women, today. “It is a sign that individuals are increasingly able to exercise control over their own reproductive lives. Falling fertility rates need not result in population reduction overall. Many countries have experienced falling population rates since the 1970s—but have still grown due to migration. And all populations are ageing—the result of welcome increases in longevity,” the report said.
Although reduced fertility rates and increased life expectancy have pushed up India’s median age from 20.02 in 1950 to 28.25 in 2023, it is still very young comparatively. In fact, around one in five people under 25 globally live in India. In comparison, the median age of China in 2023 stands at 38.98, while for the US it is 38.10. Globally, the figure is at 30.49.

According to the UN, India’s population is estimated to peak at 1.7 billion in 2065, after which it will see a gradual decline.