2014 vs 2024: What's behind higher voter turnout in J&K districts on the terror hit list

Jammu and Kashmir elections

Terror-related incidents in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) have seen a sharp decline, dropping from 222 in 2014 to just 23 so far this year, with 15 reported in the Jammu region and eight in Kashmir. Fatalities among security forces have also reduced significantly, with 25 deaths this year, compared to 47 in 2014.

This reduction in violence has contributed to higher voter turnouts in many parts of Kashmir, according to TOI citing sources in J&K administration.

Reasi, which was the site of the year’s deadliest terror attack in July, when terrorists opened fire on a bus, killing eight passengers and the driver, saw a spike in voter turnout. Meanwhile, encounters in Poonch and Rajouri have resulted in multiple casualties among security forces in recent months.

However, voter turnout in Jammu division, where voting has already taken place, has seen a dip in most districts compared to the 2014 assembly polls. One possible reason is the recent increase in terror activities in the region. As of September 27, there have been 15 terror-related incidents and encounters in Jammu, resulting in the deaths of 11 civilians and 17 security personnel.

Notably, separatists, who in the past would call for poll boycotts, have instead joined the democratic process this time as candidates. Unlike previous elections, there were no major law-and-order disruptions, such as stone-pelting, that typically kept Kashmiri voters indoors.

So far this year, security forces have neutralized 45 terrorists, compared to 110 in 2014. Out of these, 35 were killed in Kashmir, including 18 foreign and 17 local terrorists, while 10 were eliminated in Jammu.

This year's assembly elections hold particular significance as they are the first since the abrogation of Article 370 and J&K's reorganization as a Union Territory in 2019.

Among the 13 J&K districts that went to the polls in the first two phases on September 18 and 25, eight saw lower voter turnout compared to 2014. Five of these districts are in Jammu, while three are in the Kashmir Valley, the TOI report mentioned.

In the six Jammu districts where polling has been completed, only one recorded an increase in voter turnout compared to the 2014 elections. In contrast, four out of the seven districts in Kashmir that have voted so far showed an upward trend. When compared to the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, all but one district — Reasi in Jammu — recorded lower voter participation in the current elections.