Hold TCI Express; target of Rs 707: Prabhudas Lilladher

Prabhudas Lilladher recommended hold rating on TCI Express with a target price of Rs 707 in its research report dated August 20, 2025.

Broker Research

August 21, 2025 / 15:31 IST

hold

26 Aug, 2025 12:21

Volume

Todays L/H

Prabhudas Lilladher's research report on TCI Express

We cut our EPS estimates by 14%/9% for FY26E/FY27E amid persistent volume growth challenges and pricing pressure. TCIEXP IN reported weak set of results as revenues declined 2.1% YoY to Rs2,868mn (PLe Rs2,950mn) with an EBITDA margin of 9.8% (PLe 11.4%) as volumes declined for 7th quarter in a row to 233,000 MT (auto was the key segment facing challenges this time). Pricing pressure was also evident as realization was down 1.3% YoY to Rs12.3 per KG. Given stiff competition, we expect volume and realization CAGR of 4%/1% over FY25-FY27E. However, EBITDA margin is expected to improve 290 bps over the next 2 years amid improvement in utilization levels to 84% by FY27E.

Outlook

We expect sales/PAT CAGR of 5%/20% (driven by low base) over FY25-FY27E and retain HOLD with a TP of Rs707 (22x FY27E EPS; no change in target multiple). Faster than expected volume recovery & utilization is a key risk to our call.

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