The Nifty 50 failed to build on the previous day's recovery and retraced to Thursday's low, closing nearly 1 percent lower on August 8, as bears further tightened their grip on the market amid concerns over the potential impact of Trump-era tariffs on exports. The intensified selling pressure led the index to post its sixth consecutive weekly loss, marking the longest such streak since the COVID-led market crash.
The continuation of the lower highs–lower lows formation, a breakdown of short-term moving averages (10- and 20-week EMAs), and a fall below the midline of the Bollinger Bands (since April this year) on the weekly charts all indicate bearish dominance. Further pressure came from a negative MACD crossover with a weakening histogram, while the RSI at 49.50 maintained a bearish crossover.
As a result, if the index breaks the next key support at 24,200 (200-day EMA), a further drop to 24,000 (coinciding with the 50-week EMA) appears likely in the upcoming sessions. However, in the event of a rebound, 24,500 is expected to be the immediate hurdle, followed by 24,750 (10-week EMA), which would be a key resistance level for any potential trend reversal. Experts continue to recommend a sell-on-rise strategy.
The Nifty 50 opened the session lower at 24,544 and remained under pressure throughout. It touched an intraday low of 24,338 before closing at 24,363, down 233 points (0.95 percent), forming a bearish candle on the daily charts. For the week, the index declined 0.82 percent, forming a red candle with an upper shadow, further reinforcing the sell-on-rally approach.
According to Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, the underlying trend of Nifty remains weak.
“The next lower levels to be watched are around 24,200–24,000 by next week. However, any pullback up to the 24,500 hurdle could be a sell-on-rise opportunity,” he noted.
Derivative Update
Weekly options data suggest that the Nifty 50 is likely to take support around 24,300, with further downside toward 24,000–23,800 not being ruled out. On the upside, 24,500 remains the key resistance to watch.
On the Call side, the 25,000 strike holds the highest open interest, followed by 24,500 and 24,600. Maximum Call writing was seen at the 24,500 strike, followed by 24,600 and 25,000.
On the Put side, the 24,000 strike saw the highest open interest, followed by 24,500 and 24,300. The most Put writing occurred at the 24,300 strike, followed by 24,000 and 23,800.
Bank Nifty
The Bank Nifty also remained trapped in a bearish zone, falling 516 points (0.93 percent) to close at 55,005, forming a bearish candle that engulfed the previous day's green candle, signaling a negative outlook ahead.
The banking index tested the 100-day EMA (54,937) and the lower Bollinger Band intraday. On the weekly chart, it declined 1.1 percent, closing below the midline of the Bollinger Bands and forming a bearish candle.
Looking ahead, Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical Research and Derivatives at SBI Securities, said, “The 100-day EMA zone of 54,950–54,850 will be a critical support area. A sustained move below 54,850 could intensify the downtrend, opening the door for a decline toward the 54,000–53,900 support zone.”
On the upside, any recovery is expected to face resistance near 55,700–55,800, which now acts as a key hurdle for the bulls.
India VIX
The India VIX, a gauge of market fear, rose for the second consecutive week, moving in the 12.63–10.66 range. It increased by 0.48 percent during the week to 12.03, indicating a slightly cautious sentiment among the bulls.
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