Stockology: Stay invested and avoid premature exits

the market is expected to rise during the first two days of the week and fall in the last two.

Stockology is a weekly column by futurologist Mahesh Gowande. He is the Founder and Director of Ayan Analytics, which has developed ZodiacAnalyst, a research software with time and price charting tools.

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Review:

After crossing the target of 25,850, we projected that the next targets of 26,128 and 26,615 would be achieved within three months. However, the market surged rapidly, crossing 26,126 in just a week, and now we are approaching the second target of 26,650. This swift rise suggests signs of FOMO (fear of missing out) investing, which is especially evident in the small-cap and mid-cap segments. Institutional buying is also occurring, seemingly driven by market movements. In the last two days of the previous week, a broad market correction and portfolio churning in index-heavy banks, as well as oil and gas sectors, made a noticeable impact. Many investors have likely realized that their portfolios haven't been hitting new highs like the broader market over the last 40 days, a frustrating situation for traders, investors, and fund managers alike.

Technical:

The quarterly target was met in just a week's time on the Nifty chart, and there are no clear targets above 26,650. The psychological resistance is at 26,900, with the next genuine target at 27,390. Last week, we appreciated that technicals allow stop losses to trail closer as time passes, but the vertical market move has shifted the stop far away to 24,750. There are no signs of weakness or high-risk candle patterns, so the advice remains to stay invested and avoid premature exits. Cash calls in such markets represent the second highest risk after black-swan events.

TimeMap:

We anticipated broad-based selling in the market, including a negative close on the indices. Although selling occurred, select heavyweights recovered well, lifting indices, while mid-caps and small-caps saw profit booking. PSU stocks also staged a nice recovery in the last two days, as expected. This week’s TimeMap is sending mixed signals, with a slight bias towards bullishness, suggesting a rise and fall throughout the week. We believe that tensions in the Israel-Palestine and Lebanon zone could escalate towards the end of the week, potentially shaking the markets.

Mars' 120-degree aspect to Saturn on September 30 is very positive for the markets, and the Sun-Mercury conjunction on October 1 is also expected to be favourable. However, the solar eclipse on October 2, although not visible in India, could trigger natural disasters or escalate existing conflicts in troubled war zones. Eclipses have a wide-reaching impact, potentially shifting the fortunes of entire countries and causing emotional and financial distress for millions. This particular eclipse is negative, which is why we anticipate a significant rise in precious metals during this period. The effect of the eclipse will be felt when Venus enters Scorpio on October 14, as Venus, associated with wealth, helps protect against financial destruction.

The Solar Date cycle for September will conclude on October 14. The Solar Date has given a buy signal since the beginning and continues to hold. In summary, the market is expected to rise during the first two days of the week and fall in the last two.

Detailed Forecast:

September 30, 2024 (Monday): K.13: Purva: Bad Day

A further rise is expected today, but the planetary positions suggest intraday panic followed by recovery. Mars' 120-degree aspect to Saturn at 9:18 a.m. will likely bring big-ticket buying in metals and defense stocks. Intraday scares are common on this day, with human actions often being the root cause. STBT (Sell Today, Buy Tomorrow) is indicated. The market is expected to close bullishly, as half-yearly portfolio management will take place.

October 1, 2024 (Tuesday): K.14: Poorva-Uttara: Contra Day

A nominal gap-down opening is possible. Divergence indicators will give the best results today, with market sentiment expected to be nervous. Many traders may make execution errors. Contrarian trading strategies and long-short mean reversal indicators will likely yield better intraday profits. STBT is indicated.

October 3, 2024 (Thursday): S.1: Hasta: Auspicious Day

The day is expected to bring a small spike followed by a gradual market decline. Investors should remain patient and act with clear buy or sell prices in mind. Stocks that have corrected or been ignored should be considered for investment, as well as consolidation breakout stocks. Institutional investors are likely to invest heavily in metals and cement. FMCG and multinational pharma stocks also look promising for investment.

October 4, 2024 (Friday): S.2: Chitra: Bad Day

A gap-down opening is expected, which would be a bad sign. In case of a recovery, it would be wise to look for selling opportunities. Saturn's 120-degree aspect to Venus is maintaining market valuations. However, after October 14, when Venus enters Scorpio, the market outlook may worsen. Traders and investors might realize that despite everything looking positive, their portfolios are still suffering.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.