Closing Bell: Sensex gains over 250 pts, Nifty reclaims 25,500 in late surge; small, midcaps end lower

USDINR CMP- 85.77. (spot) Indian Rupee gained on a weak US Dollar and softness in crude oil prices. however, weak global markets and ongoing uncertainty over trade tariffs capped sharp gains. US President Donald Trump imposed 25%-40% tariffs on 14 countries and issued them letters. He also threatened to increase the tariffs if there was any reciprocal tariff increase. The deadline for an interim trade deal with India has been extended to August 1.

We expect the Rupee to weaken as trade tariff uncertainty may weigh on the domestic currency. However, a weak US Dollar and a decline in crude oil may support the Rupee at lower levels. USDINR spot price is expected to trade in a range of Rs 85.50 to Rs 86.05.

Rupee traded strongly, gaining 0.20 rupees or 0.23% to close at 85.65. Softer crude prices and easing FII selling pressure supported the currency. Market optimism around potential trade agreements with the US also buoyed sentiment. The rupee is expected to remain firm within a range of 85.25 to 86.00 in the near term.

The Indian rupee consolidated in a tight range, recovering from Monday's sell-off. This stability came as most Asian currencies gained against the US dollar, largely due to a "risk-on" market mood and falling imported commodity prices. The US dollar itself depreciated against most major currencies, following President Donald Trump's indication of further trade discussions despite new tariffs being rolled out. Looking ahead, the spot USD/INR is expected to remain range-bound between 85.25 and 86.05.

Despite global uncertainties stemming from U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of 25–40% tariffs on 14 nations, the Indian equity markets opened flat and traded largely sideways throughout the session. Nifty opened at 25,427, touched an intraday high of 25,495, and marked a low of 25,424. Sector-wise, strength was observed in Realty, Banking, and Financial Services, while underperformance was noted in Consumer Durables, Pharmaceuticals, Healthcare, and the Automobile space.

In the derivatives segment, notable open interest buildups were seen in stocks like TITAN, BSE, 360ONE, ANGELONE, and DIVISLAB. For the weekly expiry, the highest open interest on the call side stands at the 25,500 strike, while the put side sees significant positions at 25,500 and 25,400, indicating a tight range. The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) remains at 0.78, suggesting a slightly bearish undertone in the near term.

At close, the Sensex was up 270.01 points or 0.32 percent at 83,712.51, and the Nifty was up 61.20 points or 0.24 percent at 25,522.50. About 1,779 shares advanced, 1,840 shares declined, and 97 shares were unchanged.

India currently faces a 10–12% labour cost disadvantage, but this gap is expected to narrow over time.

No significant improvement in demand is visible due to ongoing uncertainty.

Orders from the U.S. market remain below last year’s levels.

Arvind Ltd is the top pick with a 'Buy' rating.

Indo Count and Welspun are also preferred picks in the textile sector.

Companies undertaking major capacity expansions are likely to gain the most from a potential India–U.S. trade deal.

• Total Volumes Up 11.3%, Domestic Up 9% & EXIM Up 12% (YoY)
• Total Volumes Up 11.3% at 12.90 Lk TEU Vs 11.59 LK TEUs (YoY)

QIB – 0.07 times

NII – 0.15 times

Retail – 0.24 times

Employee – 0.63 times

Overall – 0.18 times

The Sensex was up 12.85 points or 0.02 percent at 83,455.35, and the Nifty was down 13.20 points or 0.05 percent at 25,448.10. About 1436 shares advanced, 1986 shares declined, and 128 shares unchanged.

“Back to reality—Trump has issued letters to multiple countries outlining new tariff levels: 25 percent for Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, and Kazakhstan; 30 percent for South Africa; and 40 percent for Laos and Myanmar,” Kasat noted.

He warned that further trade volatility “seems inevitable, if not terribly significant,” adding that the Trump administration continues to follow an “escalate-to-deescalate” playbook—often delivering shock tariff demands that are later moderated.

On the technical front, Kasat observed that Nifty is trading at 25,461.30, with 25,331 as an important support level. A breakout above the upper end of the falling channel at 25,500 is awaited to confirm further bullish momentum.

#1 NLC India says Sumitomo Mitsui loan to fund renewable capex

#2 NLC India to take yen term loan equivalent to $100 mln from SMBC

Adani Power Ltd. has strengthened its presence in Maharashtra with the acquisition of bankrupt coal-based power producer Vidarbha Industries Power Ltd. (VIPL) for a total consideration of Rs 4,000 crore.

The acquisition includes a 600-megawatt domestic coal-fired power plant located in Butibori, Nagpur district. The deal marks a strategic move for Adani Power, bolstering its thermal generation capacity in western India.

Kotak Mahindra Bank shares rose 4 percent after the lender reported healthy growth in both advances and deposits for the first quarter of FY26.

Net advances stood at Rs 4.45 lakh crore as of June 2025, up 14 percent year-on-year from Rs 3.90 lakh crore and 4.2 percent higher sequentially from Rs 4.27 lakh crore in the March 2025 quarter.

On the liabilities side, end-of-period total deposits rose to Rs 5.13 lakh crore—an increase of 14.6 percent over Rs 4.47 lakh crore in Q1 FY25 and 2.8 percent higher than Rs 4.99 lakh crore in the previous quarter.

Titan’s jewellery vertical reported approximately 18 percent year-on-year growth in domestic operations, supported by strong traction during Akshaya Tritiya. However, a sharp surge in gold prices from May to mid-June impacted consumer sentiment, resulting in flat buyer growth across both Tanishq and CaratLane.

In response to elevated gold prices, consumer preferences shifted toward lightweight and lower karatage jewellery. Plain gold jewellery saw growth in the mid-teens, while the studded segment registered early double-digit gains.

Indian equity benchmarks opened on a flat note. The Sensex was trading 0.03 percent higher at 83,465 points, while the Nifty edged up 0.01 percent to 25,463 points in early trade.

After a muted trading activity, Nifty50 settled 07th July trade at 25,461. A DOJI candlestick on the daily chart depicts indecisiveness between the Bulls and Bears. A breakout on either sides of the range (25,380-25,580) is essential for a directional move.

Bank Nifty has also formed the same DOJI candlestick pattern, signalling uncertainty. The immediate resistance and support levels are 57,200 and 56,850, respectively.

Except for FMCG and Pharma, all the other sectors are oscillating in their respective ranges due to the lack of any fresh triggers. Awaiting a concrete move for a directional trend.

Nifty bulls may struggle as Trump’s 25% tariffs on Japan and South Korea reignite global trade worries, pulling copper prices below $5 and sparking fears of slowing demand for industrial metals. Eyes are now on the FOMC minutes (July 9) and TCS kicking off Q1 earnings (July 10).

Nifty (CMP 25,461) finds support at 25,221 and needs to break above 25,670 for fresh strength.

Stock action includes Texmaco Rail steady on a Rs 36.27 crore order from TCI, and Dhanlaxmi Bank rising 1.04% on a 17.3% jump in advances. Top trades: Buy Nifty at 25,221–25,275 (target 25,750–26,277) and Bank Nifty at 56,100–56,300 (target 57,700–58,500).

Chart picks: Bullish on Cummins India and HPCL on dips; Cummins (CMP 3,436) shows strong breakout potential with targets up to 3,661

Gold held steady on Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump unveiled higher tariffs on imports from Japan, South Korea, and other nations, while a firm dollar and higher Treasury yields limited potential gains.

Spot gold was steady at $3,334 per ounce. U.S. gold futures remain unchanged at $3,344.20.

#1 Big miss on jewellery growth, buyer growth is flat

#2 Q1 Tanishq, Mia & Zoya business revenue (ex-bullion) up 17 percent YoY versus estimate of 28 percent YoY

#3 Gold price volatility led to softening consumer purchases between May & Mid-June

#4 Studded share was lower YoY

Adani Power has acquired 100% shareholding of VIPL (on Debt free basis). Accordingly, VIPL has become a wholly owned subsidiary of the company effective July 07, 2025

#1 International business grows 49%, YoY

#2 Domestic business registers 19% growth, YoY

#3 Consumer business shows 20% growth, YoY

#4 Jewellery segment reports 18% growth, YoY

#5 Watch business increases 23%, YoY

#6 EyeCare segment records 12% increase, YoY

#7 Company adds 9 new domestic stores & 1 new international store, taking total to 3,322

Asian shares edged higher as President Donald Trump left the door open for additional negotiations after imposing new tariff rates on partners including Japan and South Korea.

Yesterday, the benchmark indices witnessed narrow-range activity. The the Sensex was up by 10 points. Among sectors, the FMCG index outperformed, rallied 1.73 percent, whereas the Media and Defense indices shed over 1 percent. Technically, after a muted open, the market hovered between the 25,400/83250 to 25,475/83400 ranges throughout the day. A small candle on the daily charts and non-directional activity on intraday charts indicate indecisiveness between the bulls and the bears.

We are of the view that 25,500/83500 will act as an immediate breakout zone for traders. Above this level, the market could rally up to 25,575/83700–25,650/84000. On the flip side, below 25,400/83250, we could see a quick intraday correction down to 25,300/83000. Further weakness may also continue, potentially dragging the market down to 25,225/82800. The current market texture is non-directional; hence, level-based trading would be the ideal strategy for day traders.

#1 GIFT Nifty signals subdued start

#2 Asia stocks rise despite Trump’s sweeping tariffs on 14 nations

#3 Japan, Korea exports to face 25% duty from August 1

#4 Tariffs as high as 40% slapped on Laos, Myanmar

#5 Trump hints US-India trade deal is very close

#6 Extra 10% duty threatened for BRICS-aligned nations

#7 Dow sinks 400+ pts, Nasdaq logs worst day since mid-June

#8 US 10-year yield rises to 4.38 percent amid tariff jitters

#9 Dollar Index climbs to 1-week high

#10 Gold gains on safe-haven demand despite strong dollar

#11 Oil shrugs off OPEC+ hike stays firm on tight supply

Yesterday, Indian stock market closed with a modest positive bias despite early volatility and global uncertainties. The Nifty 50 ended near 25,461 levels, showing resilience after opening slightly lower amid concerns over the US-India trade deal and regulatory developments, including SEBI's interim ban on US quant firm Jane Street. The Sensex remained largely flat, reflecting cautious investor sentiment.

The market's positive closing was primarily driven by sustained buying interest from domestic institutional investors, which helped offset pressure from global trade tensions and profit booking at higher levels. Key sectors such as FMCG, oil & gas, and realty witnessed selective buying, contributing to the market's overall stability.

Looking ahead, market expectations remain cautiously optimistic. The near-term trend will likely depend on clarity regarding the US-India trade negotiations and domestic corporate earnings results for Q1 FY26. While global macro factors continue to inject volatility, steady domestic institutional support and positive sectoral performance may provide a buffer to the markets, enabling a gradual recovery and consolidation in the coming weeks.

The yen fell broadly on Tuesday while the dollar held steady as U.S. President Donald Trump unveiled 25% tariffs on goods from Japan and South Korea in the latest development of his chaotic trade war.

Other currencies meanwhile gained some ground on Tuesday, after sliding in the prior session when the dollar rebounded.

The euro was up 0.27% to $1.1741 after having slid 0.67% on Monday, while sterling edged up 0.17% to $1.3626.

The European Union will not receive a letter from the United States setting out higher tariffs, EU sources familiar with the matter told Reuters on Monday, and is eyeing possible exemptions from the U.S. baseline levy of 10%.

Against a basket of currencies, the dollar was little changed at 97.40, holding on to most of its gains from Monday when it rose 0.5%.

The Australian dollar last traded 0.32% higher at $0.6513, having tumbled 0.9% in the previous session as risk appetite soured.

The New Zealand dollar advanced 0.22% to $0.6015, reversing some of Monday's 0.8% fall.

Oil prices eased on Tuesday after rising almost 2% in the previous session, as investors assessed new developments on U.S. tariffs and a higher-than-expected OPEC+ output hike for August.

Brent crude futures dropped 21 cents at $69.37 a barrel by 0041 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 24 cents at $67.69 a barrel.

Trends on GIFT Nifty indicate a flat to positive start for the broader index in India, with a loss of 18.5 points or 0.07 percent. The Nifty futures were trading around 25,497.50 level.

Wall Street's major indexes closed sharply lower on Monday, after U.S. President Donald Trump announced hefty tariffs against Japan, South Korea and other trading partners while Tesla shares sank after CEO Elon Musk said he was forming a new U.S. political party.

Indexes added to losses after Trump announced the tariff rates against Japanese and South Korean imports, due to take effect on August 1. Stocks wobbled further in the late afternoon when he announced hefty tariffs on Malaysia, Kazakhstan, South Africa, Laos and Myanmar.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 422.17 points, or 0.94%, to 44,406.36, the S&P 500 lost 49.37 points, or 0.79%, to 6,229.98 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 188.59 points, or 0.91%, to 20,412.52.

Benchmark indices ended flat with Nifty hovering around 25,450 as investors turned cautious ahead of likely development around the US-India trade deal expected later this evening.

At close, the Sensex was up 193.42 points or 0.23 percent at 83,432.89, and the Nifty was up 55.7 points or 0.22 percent at 25,461. Broader indices underperformed the main indices with Nifty Midcap index down 0.27 percent, while smallcap index shed 0.4 percent.

Among sectors, FMCG index rose 1.6 percent, oil & gas index gained 0.4 percent, while media index down 1 percent, IT and Metal index down 0.7 percent each.

Tech Mahindra, Bharat Electronics, UltraTech Cement, ONGC, Eternal were among major losers on the Nifty, while losers were HUL, Tata Consumer, Nestle India, Jio Financial and Eicher Motors.

Buy not on optimism, but on arithmetic.