In the coming week, several important data points that demand attention will be released in India as well as globally. For India, the industrial production data and manufacturing production data for January will be released on March 10.
On the global front, China will release trade data (on March 7), and inflation data for February (on March 9).
US non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate for February will be disclosed on March 10. US Fed chair Jerome Powell will give his testimony to the US Banking Committee on March 7 and 8.
From Eurozone, UK, and Japan - Q4 GDP (Revised) (QoQ) 3rd estimate, UK GDP January MoM, and Q4 GDP respectively are the significant economic data releases.
Also in the upcoming week, the Bank of Canada, Bank of Japan and Reserve Bank of Australia will announce their interest rate decisions.
Global earnings season continues next week with key reports expected from Adidas, Gap and Ferguson, among others.
Let's take a look at the key economic data releases, that will also shed light on how the macroeconomic data for major economies looked last month. Here's the schedule of key economic data releases for the week beginning March 6, 2023:
Data on China's January foreign trade will be made public on Monday. In December 2022, the trade surplus in China was $78 billion from a revised $93.21 billion in the same month the prior year. Exports shrank 9.9 percent YoY in January. Imports fell 7.5 percent from last year. (A positive value implies a trade surplus, and a negative trade balance implies a trade deficit.)
China Foreign Exchange Reserves
On Monday, China will also release its data on foreign exchange reserves for February. China's foreign exchange holdings increased by $56.8 billion in January, reaching $3.184 trillion. (Chinese FX Reserves measure the foreign assets held or controlled by the PBOC, the country's central bank). The reserves are made up of financial assets denominated in various currencies, in addition to gold, or a specific currency.)
Japan Foreign Exchange Reserves for February
Japan's foreign exchange reserves figure for February is also awaited on March 6. The number was $1,126.9 billion in January 2023, up from $1,108.2 billion in December 2022, according to monthly figures.
Other important economic data releases on Monday are US Factory Orders (for January), Eurozone Retail Sales (for January), UK Construction PMI (for February).
US Fed Chair Powell Testimony
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will testify in front of the Joint Economic Committee in Washington, DC, about recent monetary policy decisions and the future of the economy. The testimony is presented in two parts: a prepared statement is presented in the first, and then the committee asks questions. The benchmark lending rate was most recently increased by 25 bps by the US central bank, bringing it to a target range of 4.50-4.75 percent.
RBA interest rate decision
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will announce its benchmark interest rate on Tuesday. According to a Reuters poll, the central bank will increase its interest rate by another 25 basis points to 3.60 percent. According to the minutes from the meeting last month, the RBA contemplated two alternative paces for interest rate hikes: 50 basis points or 25 basis points.
The Australian central bank increased its rate by 25 bps to 3.35 percent, the highest level in a decade. The RBA ended its February policy meeting by predicting that inflation would only return to the top of its target range of 2-3 percent by mid-2025.
The M3 money supply data for the week ending February 24 will be released on March 8. On the week ending February 10, India's M3 money supply increased 9.5 percent from a year earlier to Rs 219.882 trillion.
(Monetary aggregates, known also as "money supply", is the quantity of currency available within the economy to purchase goods and services. M3 is a broad monetary aggregate that includes all physical currency circulating in the economy (banknotes and coins), operational deposits in central bank, money in current accounts, saving accounts, money market deposits, certificates of deposit, and all other deposits and repurchase agreements.)
Eurozone Q4 GDP (Revised) (QoQ) 3rd estimate
A third estimate of Eurozone Q4 GDP will be released on Wednesday by Eurostat, the European Union's statistical agency. According to a second preliminary flash estimate, seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 0.1 percent in the euro area and remained steady throughout the EU in Q4 of 2022 compared to the previous quarter.
The first estimate of annual growth for 2022 found that GDP rose by 3.5 percent in the Euro area and 3.6 percent in the EU. GDP in the Euro area and the European Union both increased by 0.3 percent in the third quarter of 2022.
Bank of Canada rate decision
Bank of Canada (BoC) governing council members will announce its rate decision as well. The BoC increased the policy interest rate by 25 bps to 4.5 percent in its January meeting. The central bank expects Canada's GDP to have expanded by 3.6 percent in 2022. Through the middle of 2023, growth is anticipated to stagnate before picking up later in the year.
Fed Chair Powell testimony (Continued)
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will testify for a second time in front of the Joint Economic Committee in Washington, DC, about recent monetary policy decisions and the future of the economy.
Other important economic data releases on Wednesday: US International Trade (for January) and US Balance of Trade reading.
The February data will be declared on Thursday. China's annual inflation (CPI) rate increased to 2.1 percent in January 2023 from 1.8 percent in December.
Japan Q4 GDP Growth rate
In the fourth quarter of 2022, the Japanese economy expanded by 0.2 percent QoQ after contracting 0.3 percent in the third quarter. The Japanese economy grew 0.6 percent year on year in the fourth quarter of 2022, following a 1 percent contraction in the previous period.
US Initial Jobless claims
The numbers for the week ending March 4 will be released. On the week ending February 25, 190,000 Americans applied for unemployment benefits, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week. The 4-week moving average was 193,000, an increase of 1,750 from the previous week's unrevised average of 191,250.
The numbers for the week ending March 3 are on the roster for March 10. As of February 24, India's foreign exchange reserves had decreased by $325 million to $560.942 billion, marking the fourth straight week of falling. The aggregate reserves dropped by $5.68 billion to $561.267 billion over the preceding week.
India Industrial Production January (YoY)
India is anticipating the January numbers of the India Industrial Production (IIP). According to data issued on February 10 by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, India's industrial growth as measured by the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) decreased to 4.3 percent in December 2022. The most recent IIP growth rate of 4.3 percent is lower than November's revised rate of 7.3 percent. In December 2021, industrial growth was 1 percent. The production of the manufacturing sector increased by 2.6 percent in December 2022, according to the data.
India Bank Loan Growth
The banking system credit grew 16.1 percent year-on-year (YoY) in the fortnight ended February 10 to Rs 134.17 trillion. About a month ago (January 13 fortnight), credit growth stood at 16.5 percent YoY.
Banks' loan growth eased to 16.8 percent in the December quarter from 17.2 percent in the preceding quarter. In the year-ago period, bank credit had grown 8.4 percent.
India Deposit Growth
The value of deposits in India increased 10.2 percent year-on-year in the fortnight ending February 10. Deposits stood at Rs. 177.7 lakh crore for the fortnight.
US Unemployment rate (for February)
In the US, the unemployment rate decreased slightly from 3.5 percent in December 2022 to 3.4 percent in January 2023. Payrolls increased by 517,000 in January.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on February 3 that total non-farm payroll employment increased by 517,000 in January while the unemployment rate remained stable at 3.4 percent.
UK's MoM GDP Estimate (for January)
The UK economy shrank by 0.5 percent month-over-month in December 2022 after an unrevised gain of 0.1 percent in November 2022. The annual GDP output is estimated to have increased by 4.1 percent in 2022 after increasing by 7.4 percent in 2021. The services sector experienced a decline of 0.8 percent in December 2022 from a gain of 0.2 percent in November. Production output increased by 0.3 percent in December 2022 vs. growth of 0.1 percent in November.
BoJ Rate Decision
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained its key short-term interest rate at -0.1 percent. The central bank also kept its 0.5 percent cap for bond buying. All eyes are now on what the central bank announces on March 10.
Earnings reports in the upcoming week
While earnings season has ended in India, global companies such as - Just Group, Fresnillo, Greggs, Reach, Foxtons, Ferguson, Ashtead; Tullow Oil, Hiscox, Darktrace, Galliford Try, Adidas, Hammerson, PageGroup, Aviva, Entain, Kier, Oracle, and Gap - are set to release their latest reports.
(With inputs from Agencies)
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