Rupee to stay over 84 against the dollar by FY25 end: MC Poll

Rupee could stay ovr 84 against the dollar till FY25 end

The Indian rupee is likely to stay over Rs 84 against the dollar till December, depreciating further to Rs 84.1 by the end of the fiscal, according to a Moneycontrol poll of 19 economists.

The rupee slipped below 84 against the dollar for the first time last week on account of a spike in oil prices and equity outflows from India.

Experts noted that despite depreciations, the currency will still remain the best-performing currency among emerging market peers.

“On the currency front, we believe that the Indian Rupee will continue to remain an outperformer against its Emerging Market peers, on the back of strong flows and strong domestic macros,” said Vidya Iyer, Head Fixed Income, ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Co Ltd.

The rupee closed at 83.995 on October 16, a shade above its previous close of 84.0375 in the previous trading session.

A Moneycontrol analysis shows that the currency has depreciated 0.8 percent against the dollar since the start of the year and 0.9 percent over the previous year.

In contrast, the Vietnamese dong has depreciated 2.6 percent and 2.8 percent, respectively, while the Brazilian Real has depreciated 4.1 percent and 16.1 percent during this period.

The Moneycontrol poll projects that the rupee will range between 83.4 and 84.63 against the dollar by the end of 2024 and between 83 and 84.5 by the end of March 2025.

Most economists peg that the currency is unlikely to strengthen in the coming two quarters.

India’s inclusion in the Bloomberg Emerging Markets index is expected to bring around $5 billion in inflows starting January 2025.

Experts, however, indicate that further oil pressure could lower the currency edge.

“The support for the rupee remains in the 84.05-84.15 range, while resistance is seen between 83.90-83.80. If crude prices rise above $72, rupee weakness could intensify below 84.15,” said Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities commenting on rupee’s close on October 16.