India’s low October inflation reading explained in five charts

India’s inflation eased to 0.25 percent in October, the slowest pace since the current series began in 2013, as food prices fell for a second straight month, according to a Moneycontrol analysis of official data.

The moderation was driven by a 5 percent contraction in food inflation, extending a deflationary streak that began in June. Vegetable prices, which had surged over 42 percent a year earlier, declined 27.6 percent year-on-year, marking the steepest drop in over a decade. Cereal inflation softened to 0.9 percent, while pulses fell 16.1 percent, indicating ample kharif arrivals and improved supply conditions.

The correction in oils and fats, down to 11.2 percent from 18.3 percent in September, also contributed to easing food costs.

While food inflation cooled, core categories remained steady. Housing inflation held at 2.96 percent, health eased slightly to 3.86 percent, and education stayed firm at 3.49 percent. However, personal care and effects inflation surged to 23.9 percent, its highest level since the pandemic, due to rising prices of gold and silver.

Transport and communication inflation dipped to 0.94 percent. Among individual commodities, coconut oil and mustard oil inflation was at 92.7 percent and 12 percent, respectively. Prices of fish rose, while gold and silver continued to rally, rising 57.8 percent and 62.4 percent year-on-year.

Regionally, the inflation map turned uneven. Kerala (8.6 percent), Jammu & Kashmir (3 percent), and Karnataka (2.3 percent) recorded the highest price growth. At the other end, Bihar (-2 per cent), Uttar Pradesh (-1.7 per cent), and Madhya Pradesh (-1.6 per cent) slipped further into deflation, reflecting a sharp decline in food prices.