Moneycontrol Pro Panorama | After a turbulent 2025 for stock markets, will 2026 bring cheer?

An improvement in economic activity and earnings will help infuse new vigour into stock markets.

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In Western markets, investors tend to clean up their portfolios ahead of the year-end holidays. They come back in January and take a fresh look at investments. However, in India, the strategy reset seems to be arriving ahead of the holiday season this year.

This month, Goldman Sachs upgraded its stance on Indian stock markets to overweight citing earnings stability, supportive policies and under-ownership of foreign investors. The upgrade by Goldman Sachs follows a similar revision in stance by HSBC. In September, Sanjeev Prasad, Managing Director and co-head of Kotak Institutional Equities, said he is turning positive on Indian equities.

The revision in stance by Kotak, HSBC and Goldman Sachs comes after a year of caution, downgrades and underperformance of Indian equities vis-à-vis emerging markets. Whether their change in stance will reverse underperformance of Indian equities has to be seen. However, there are visible signs of improvement in pain points.

While US tariffs are hurting some pockets of exports, overall GDP growth is in good form and investors are hopeful that a trade deal will be struck soon. The September quarter results are broadly stable and in line with Street expectations. Management commentaries, while not gung-ho, are not downbeat either. Favourable base and recovery from monsoon and trade disruptions are expected to fuel earnings.

“Companies maintained a neutral-to-optimistic outlook, leading to our Nifty-50 index earnings estimates seeing mild upgrades over the Q2 FY26 earnings season,” analysts at Kotak said in a note.

In fact, UBS expect India’s growth in FY27 to be driven by domestic demand and shift in US trade policy. “In our base case, we assume a US-India trade deal materialises,” economists at UBS said in a note.

The revised predictions validate the optimism of local investors, who have been routing their savings into Indian stock markets all this while.

Still, one should not ignore the fact that returns from the benchmark Nifty 50 index have been lacklustre so far this calendar year (up just 7 percent). An improvement in economic activity and earnings will help infuse new vigour into stock markets. A balanced US-India trade deal, stable global economy and orderly development of the AI business opportunity are other important supporting factors. 

Investing insights from our research team

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Emami: Unprecedented seasonal headwinds, GST-led disruptions hurt Q2 growth

Global Health Q2 FY26: Healthy performance, strong outlook

NCC Limited: Near-term headwinds remain; growth to accelerate from FY27

Bajaj Finance Q2 FY26 – Stable performance, size not a deterrent

Cummins India: A power-packed Q2 performance

Tracker

Pro Economic Tracker | Auto sales, consumer sentiments improve, but labour participation falls

What else are we reading?

Amid surging exports, Bajaj Auto has a bumpy ride on home ground

Chart of the Day: Coal power plant utilisation levels slide on sluggish electricity demand

Bajaj Finance’s Q2 shows tax cuts powered consumer loans, but stress lurks

The US is wooing Central Asia under the shadow of China, Russia

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Gold rally tempts jewellers with a literal debasement trade (republished from the FT)

As SIR of electoral rolls enters second phase, Opposition and legal challenges intensify

US Disengagement from East Asia: Rhetoric or reality?

F&O policy signals a new era of market maturity and depth

India’s security threat is not limited to conventional sources; asymmetric tactics are a reality

Fujian, China’s third aircraft carrier, changes Quad incentives for military ties

Markets

Top 20 fund managers now control 23.5% of India’s MF industry AUM

Tech and Startups
Putting most digital payments through single rail could pose systemic risks, Mastercard’s Gautam Aggarwal

Technical Picks: PERSISTENT, WELSPUNLIV, TATAPOWER, BDL

R Sree Ram
Moneycontrol Pro