OPINION | Fujian, China’s third aircraft carrier, changes Quad incentives for military ties

China’s peacetime naval expansion

China commissioned its third aircraft carrier the Fujian into the PLA Navy (PLAN) on Wednesday (November 5) in the Sanya naval base on the southern island province of Hainan.

President Xi Jinping presiding over the ceremony underscored the fact that this is a significant accomplishment for a nation that is determined to progressively acquire a credible sea control and power projection military capability that would place it in the same league as the U.S.

The electromagnetic catapult carrier

The Fujian which displaces 85,000 tons is fitted with a three catapult EMALS (Electromagnetic Aircraft Launch System) that will allow it to launch and recover 160 sorties per day and this places the Chinese carrier in the same category as the US Navy’s Ford class aircraft carrier. EMALS is the most modern aircraft launching device for a carrier at sea and replaces the older steam catapult and ski-jump systems.

The Fujian can embark 40 fixed-wing aircraft that include the J-35 stealth fighter and the J-15 (a Russian Sukhoi-33 variant),  the backbone of the PLAN’s fighter inventory and the indigenously developed KJ-600 airborne early-warning aircraft. Cumulatively this is a formidable trans-border military capability and is a commendable achievement.

Why the carrier launch is important

While the total number of aircraft the Fujian can carry is smaller than the 75 aircraft that the USS Ford can deploy, the November 5 commissioning of the PLAN’s third carrier symbolises an extraordinary techno-strategic warship building achievement for a freshly minted navy.

The Fujian was built in six years and it demonstrates how the PLAN has been able to acquire complex design and shipbuilding capabilities that took the U.S-led West decades to master.

In many ways the commissioning of the Fujian is reflective of the pace of China's ship building and technological upgradation. It merits recall that in 2005 the PLAN had no aircraft carrier (for the record – India acquired its first carrier the INS Vikrant in 1961) and in 2025 it has become a three-carrier navy with EMALS to boot!

China’s consequential peacetime naval expansion

Over the past two decades, China’s naval shipbuilding has executed the fastest peacetime fleet expansion in history, transforming the PLAN from a coastal force into a blue-water navy rivalling the U.S. in the Western Pacific.

From 2005 to 2025, China added about 1.5 million tons of modern warships - equivalent to three U.S. carrier strike groups at a dizzying pace. From 2.4 major combatants per year (2005–2009) to 13.6 per year (2020–2025), this is a six-fold increase in the rate of shipbuilding and is unprecedented in modern naval history.

The transformation of the PLAN in a two-decade period was enabled by the robust industrial backbone that China nurtured in the shipbuilding sector. Four mega-yards (Jiangnan, Dalian, Hudong, Guangzhou) now launch a 10,000-ton destroyer every 6–8 weeks using modular construction. Hull-to-commission time has been reduced from 36 months (2005) to 14–18 months (2025). Annual steel-cutting capacity in China is now at 1.2 million tons, which rivals the total U.S. naval and commercial output. The surge in the comparative pace of shipbuilding is reflected in the numbers.  In the period 2005–2009 about 85,000 tons were added by China and this increased dramatically to 720,000 tons in the period 2020-25 marking an eightfold increase.

Fujian symbolises a systemic transformation

China now operates three carrier groups, sustains blue-water rotations in the western Pacific and the IOR (Indian Ocean region) and fields hypersonic anti-ship missiles: capabilities the Soviet Navy took 30–40 years to approach.

In essence, the Fujian commissioning is not an outlier event but the visible crest of a systemic transformation that includes an amazing compression of timelines from design-to- operational deployment; leap-frogging technology generations; and industrial scale production that is unmatched.

By 2030, a fourth carrier (Type 004, possibly nuclear) is expected to be commissioned, thereby cementing China’s challenge to U.S. naval primacy in the Indo-Pacific.

Quad will not remain unaffected

How will the induction of the Fujian into the PLAN impact the strategic dynamic in the Indo-Pacific and the Quad in particular?

The Fujian's entry into service amplifies incentives among Quad members for deeper ties. A three-carrier navy will extend the PLAN's reach into Quad members' backyards such as Japan's Senkakus, India's Andaman & Nicobar Islands and Australia's approaches, prompting calls for enhanced deterrence.

China’s maritime assertiveness has already roiled the South China Sea and some ASEAN members such as Philippines, and irked Japan.   Post-Fujian scenarios highlight potential risks to the First/Second Island chains, spurring Quad responses like the U.S.-Japan-Australia trilateral patrols and India's aircraft carrier and nuclear submarine plans.

Trump’s response holds the key

The critical question is whether Fujian's ‘combat readiness’ could force Quad members to evolve ‘naval rotations’ in the Indo-Pacific to balance China’s flouting of international law (UNCLOS) and related norms at sea.

While the evolution of the Quad towards a stated military alliance or convention (treaty-bound mutual defence) remains unlikely, given India’s reticence to be part of such a structure – much will depend on how U.S. President Donald Trump perceives China, India and the Quad.

India is scheduled to host the Quad summit in 2025 but latest reports suggest that Trump has indicated that he will not be attending any such summit in India and that perhaps 2026 could be an option.

Fujian is a praiseworthy example of how sustained national resolve can translate into meaningful self-reliance and strategic autonomy, devoid of any chest-thumping and exaggerated claims. There are many cues here for India’s ‘atmanirbharta’ quest.