BUSINESS
Chart of the Day: Imports resilient, non-petroleum exports better than expected
Despite the fall in commodity prices, imports other than of crude oil and of gold and silver were up 1.5 percent from a year ago
BUSINESS
The Chinese dragon is in danger of losing its teeth
For China, there is the extremely disquieting precedent of Japan. What is worse is that unlike Japan, China is likely to grow old before it becomes rich
BUSINESS
Budget Snapshots: India’s fiscal deficit is much higher than its peers
The problem lies with government spending as a percentage of GDP, which is much higher for India than for other countries at the same per capita income level
BUSINESS
IIP, CPI data show strong growth resulting in elevated core inflation
Retail inflation for the third quarter of 2022-23 has come in at 6.1 percent, well below RBI’s estimate of 6.6 percent
BUSINESS
A tale of two pre-election budgets
One way of judging whether the 2023 budget will be populist is to check whether the budget in 2018 was one
BUSINESS
Chart of the Day: Household savings drop? Blame it on pent-up consumption
With the CSO predicting much lower consumption growth in the second half, household savings should rise
BUSINESS
Strong India PMI shows no case for stimulus in this year’s Budget
If India’s PMI is so much higher than the rest of the world’s, where’s the need for a fiscal stimulus?
BUSINESS
What the IMF has to say about Union Budget 2023
The IMF calls for a clearly communicated medium-term strategy to reduce deficit. But since the Union Budget 2023 will be a pre-election year one, the revenue enhancing measures proposed by the IMF are unlikely
BUSINESS
Markets in 2023: Cyclical or structural?
There are many reasons to believe that the global economy reached a turning point in 2022, but the markets have studiously ignored that unsettling view
BUSINESS
At the beginning of 2023, Indian manufacturing a picture of resilience
The strong momentum in the manufacturing PMI provides a fundamental basis to the resilience of the Indian stock markets and could justify the high valuations
BUSINESS
What could surprise the markets in 2023?
How much of the growth slowdown, inflation, geopolitics, monetary tightening et al have been factored in by the markets?
BUSINESS
Core inflation stays sticky, IIP data for consumer goods alarming
Why on earth is the index for consumer non-durables in October 2022 lower than in October 2017?
BUSINESS
Real policy rates are well below the pre-pandemic levels
The data shows that the relation between the policy rate, inflation and growth is very different now than before the pandemic
BUSINESS
Consumer confidence is back to pre-pandemic levels
The RBI survey’s Future Expectations Index for November 2022 is higher than its level in November 2019
BUSINESS
Memo from PMI numbers to the MPC: Beware of core inflation
The November PMI says output prices across the private sector rose at the fastest pace in three months, as an acceleration in the service economy more than offset the slowdown seen among goods producers
BUSINESS
Why policy rates need to go up more as monetary policies are tightening everywhere
The impact on inflation of monetary tightening will be lower if policy is tightened together in many economies
BUSINESS
India’s manufacturing growth fastest in world in November, shows PMI
While the global manufacturing decline is likely to get worse with new orders decreasing, in India new orders show strong growth
BUSINESS
Moneycontrol Pro Panorama | Jay Powell plays Santa for the markets
In today’s edition of Moneycontrol Pro Panorama: Oil market is likely to be volatile in 2023, unlocking state economic activity, crypto awareness has served India well, Gujarat contest crucial for AAP, and more
BUSINESS
Q2 GDP: Rebound in contact-intensive services boosts growth
The story on the demand side for the September quarter is the huge drag on GDP from the external sector, thanks to high crude oil and commodity prices
BUSINESS
What Q2 GDP will tell us about the structure of Indian economy
Fuel prices remained high during the quarter and the trade deficit was elevated, so net exports are likely to continue to be a big drag
BUSINESS
COVID protests lay bare the contradictions of Chinese capitalism
The principal contradiction in China is between capitalism and the markets on the one hand and a Stalinist state on the other
BUSINESS
Moneycontrol Pro Weekender | The time of monsters
The world is in a state of great churn. As big powers retreat, new leaders step in to make their presence felt
BUSINESS
Unlike the rest of the world, unemployment fell in India during the pandemic
Employment in the ‘agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing’ sector went up from 198.2 million in 2018-19 to 223.4 million in 2019-20, in a radical change of trend
BUSINESS
A pivot towards Chinese equities comes at India’s expense
The Bank of America survey of Asia Pacific fund managers sees policy reversals in China, which is fuelling a jump in Chinese equities, despite extreme bearish sentiment
