This 200-foot newly discovered asteroid has 1-in-83 risk of hitting Earth, warns NASA. Check details

Astronomers have discovered a new asteroid with a significant chance of hitting Earth in the future

Astronomers have discovered a new asteroid with a significant chance of hitting Earth in the future.

Asteroids are small, rocky objects that orbit the Sun, mostly found in the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter. They can vary in size, from small pebbles to hundreds of kilometers in diameter.

The newly identified asteroid, named 2024 YR4, is approximately 196 feet (60 meters) wide, about half the length of a football field, and is currently 27 million miles away.

While many asteroids don’t pose a threat, some could potentially be dangerous if their paths bring them close to Earth. Others are studied for their valuable resources, such as metals and water ice.

According to NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS), asteroid 2024 YR4 is set to make a close pass by Earth on December 22, 2032. It’s expected to come within about 66,000 miles (106,200 kilometers) of Earth, but due to uncertainties in its orbit, there's a chance it could directly impact the planet.

If the asteroid were to impact Earth, it could trigger an explosion in the atmosphere, known as an "airburst," or create an impact crater if it strikes the ground directly.

This has caused asteroid 2024 YR4 to rise to the top of the European Space Agency's NEO Impact Risk List and NASA's Sentry Risk Table.

The asteroid has been assigned a 3 on the Torino risk scale, a system used to assess the impact risk of near-Earth objects (NEOs). A rating of 0 means the object poses no real threat, while a rating of 10 signifies a certain collision that could lead to a global catastrophe. A rating of 3 indicates a close approach, requiring close monitoring, with a greater than 1% chance of impact.

"Odds have slightly increased to 1 in 83," wrote Catalina Sky Survey engineer and asteroid hunter David Rankin on BlueSky. "This is one of the highest probabilities of an impact from a significantly sized rock ever."

Amateur astronomer Tony Dunn has also shared a simulation of the asteroid’s approach on his X feed.

Recently-discovered #asteroid 2024 YR4 may make a very close approach to Earth in 8 years. It is thought to be 40-100 meters wide. Uncertainty is still high and more and more observations are needed confirm this. pic.twitter.com/u8PvZg3jaw
Tony Dunn (@tony873004) January 28, 2025

The asteroid was first discovered by the NASA-funded ATLAS project, using a telescope in Rio Hurtado, Chile. David Rankin later recovered the asteroid using data from the Catalina Sky Survey.

Rankin told Space.com that there was no immediate cause for alarm. "People should absolutely not worry about this yet," Rankin said. "Impact probability is still very low, and the most likely outcome will be a close approach that misses us."

Rankin explained that the current "risk corridor" for a potential impact stretches from South America across the Atlantic to South Africa. However, due to uncertainties in its orbit, it’s still unclear if the asteroid will actually hit Earth. New observations and better orbit calculations will help refine the impact corridor.

Even if 2024 YR4 were to strike Earth, Rankin emphasized that it shouldn’t be a major concern yet. There is still a lot that astronomers don’t know about the asteroid, and many of these unknowns could affect the severity of any potential impact.

Based on current projections, the asteroid is expected to come within 106,200 kilometers of Earth. Researchers are continuing to monitor its movement, which may lead to more accurate projections and a clearer understanding of its close approach distance.

If it doesn't hit Earth, the asteroid is projected to come very close to the Moon on December 22, 2032.