SRK's Jawan set to pip Pathaan as biggest film of 2023, sees strong traction in South

It’s SRK vs SRK at the box office as superstar Shah Rukh Khan's new film Jawan competes against the actor's previous blockbuster released in January.

Owners of single-screen cinemas and multiplexes expect Jawan, which was released on September 7, to surpass the business of Pathaan, the biggest hit of 2023. Of all the releases so far this year, Jawan will be the biggest film in terms of collections, said Sanjeev Kumar Bijli, executive director of PVR Inox.

"Nationally, we are hovering around 70-80 percent occupancy. It is 80-90 percent in Mumbai and almost 100 percent in east India. We started shows from 5 am and had a number of housefull shows. Given all this, it looks like a Rs 65-70 crore opening day, which is bigger than Pathaan," Bijli told Moneycontrol.

Highest grosser

For Amit Sharma, MD of Miraj Entertainment, if Jawan doesn’t become the top Hindi grosser, it will be a disappointment. He said that looking at the early trends, the film is all set to surpass Pathaan's business.

"In Miraj Cinemas, we are at 70,000 admissions, which will reach 1.4-1.5 lakh admissions on the opening day of Jawan. This is 10-15 percent higher than Pathaan. From the collections point of view, we will do 20-25 percent more than Pathaan on day one. I expect over Rs 75 crore-80 crore opening day for Jawan for all languages."

He said Jawan is one of the rarest action films that has repeat viewing value.

"Usually, action films are a one-time watch, but this film has a high repeat value and people will watch it more than once in theatres," he said.

Pathaan collected Rs 55-60 crore on the day of its release in all languages.

"We had a 5 am show in Kolkata for Jawan and that was sold out last evening (September 6). We expect Rs 250 crore business for the 4-day weekend for all languages," Sharma said.

Jawan registered sales of 25 lakh tickets so far. "At 16 lakh, the film’s advance sales are the highest ever for a Shah Rukh Khan film," said Ashish Saksena, COO, Cinemas, BookMyShow.

He added that ticket sales for Jawan at single-screen theatres alone has contributed 36 percent of sales on the platform so far.

Dubbed versions

Jawan's business will be higher than Pathaan’s because the new film has strong traction in Tamil Nadu and Hyderabad, noted Ashutosh Agarwal, director at Starworld Cinemas.

"As of now, Gujarat is leading because of the Krishna Janmashtami holiday. And the film has opened very well in the south," said Tolu Bajaj, chief operating officer, distribution & exhibition at Mukta A2 Cinemas.

While sales have picked up across the country for all languages, it is growing multi-fold for the Tamil and Telugu versions of the film, said Saksena. "An interesting point to note is that the Hindi language version of the film has specifically seen tremendous interest from markets across South and East India such as Hyderabad, Kolkata, Bengaluru and Chennai."

Pathaan collected about Rs 543 crore and Jawan has a better pan-India appeal given that it has stars from the south like Vijay Sethupati and Nayanthara, said Jinesh Joshi, a research analyst at Prabhudas Lilladher.

"It would be interesting to see where the lifetime collections actually settle (for Jawan)," he added.

The film's Hindi version is expected to record higher collections.

"The Hindi version of the film will be much bigger, accounting for 90 percent of total collections and the rest 10 percent coming from dubbed Tamil and Telugu versions," Bijli said.

Bollywood's comeback

Agarwal, who recorded 90 to 100 percent occupancy in his cinemas for Jawan, expects a big positive impact on the Hindi segment.

"We are seeing long queues outside the theatres for the film. People are dancing in the theatres at the end of the film. Post-Jawan, we expect more such releases that attract the mass audience," he said.

In terms of the box office, Hindi films have made a comeback, according to analysts. The quarter ending September is expected to be the best for Hindi films since the pandemic, with 31 percent higher collections than pre-Covid levels.

"July onwards we started seeing the Hindi film business trending well. Hindi films have bounced back. This is positive because the bulk of the business comes from Hindi cinema," Bijli said.

PVR Inox is expected to post its highest profit in the post-Covid period in the September quarter.

However, Bajaj pointed out there will be a lull in September because superstar Prabhas' film Salaar has been postponed to November from September 28.

"November onwards we have a good content lineup, including films like Tiger 3, Animal, Merry Christmas and Dunki. There is a healthy atmosphere in the trade right now," he added.