Sino-Bhutan Bromance: India to be vigilant in spite of Thimphu’s reassurances

PM Modi with King of Bhutan Jigme Khesar Namgyel Wangchuk. Bhutan has reassured India that it will take no decision that will affect India’s security concerns in the border regions.

Amid concerns in India that Bhutan is moving closer to China, the King of Bhutan, Jigme Khesar Namgyel Wangchuk, arrived in the country on a 10-day visit on November 3.

This is the Bhutanese monarch’s second visit to India this year. He was here on a three-day visit in April.

The need for a second visit in seven months shows the seriousness with which New Delhi is taking Thimphu’s move towards Beijing, especially with regard to the border issue between the two countries.

Implications for India

A final agreement on the Sino-Bhutanese border has serious strategic significance for India. China is keen that the border issue with Bhutan is settled at the earliest, as this could put it in an advantageous position in the contested Doklam plateau, allowing easy access to the `chicken’s neck’  in West Bengal’s Siliguri, that connects India’s north-east with the rest of the country.

If that access is cut off, it will be extremely difficult for India to move goods, essential supplies, people, and troops to the north-eastern states during a crisis.

China and Bhutan held their 25th round of boundary talks on October 25 and 26 in Beijing. An agreement on “the responsibilities and functions of the joint technical team on the delimitation and demarcation of the China-Bhutan Boundary” was signed between Sun Weidong, vice minister of foreign affairs of China, and Tandi Dorji, minister for foreign affairs and external trade of Bhutan.

Dorji also met Chinese vice president Han Zheng and agreed to accelerate the boundary demarcation process and establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries.

Bhutan does not have diplomatic relations with any of the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). Its foreign relations have largely been guided by India.

Diplomatic relations between Bhutan and China will allow Beijing to make heavy investments in Bhutan’s infrastructure and other sectors, and pose a serious challenge to India’s primacy in the country, as it has done in other South Asian nations.

However, developments in recent months indicate not only a shift in Bhutan’s position on China, but also a tendency to pursue a much more independent foreign policy. The Bhutanese King’s visit to India in April was in the wake of Bhutanese Prime Minister Lotay Tshering’s comment that China has equal say — along with India and Bhutan — in resolving the border dispute in Doklam.

Predictably, his comments created concerns in Delhi and it was left to the King to address them.

During his current visit, the Bhutanese monarch will meet Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Foreign Minister S Jaishankar, and other leaders. At their meeting, the two sides are likely to reaffirm their mutual understanding and trust.

The King will also be able to tell the Indian leaders where his country stands on the border issue with China.

India-Bhutan ties

The Bhutanese King is already in Assam, and is likely to visit Maharashtra and New Delhi during his stay, where he will hold wide-ranging discussions on bilateral cooperation with Modi.

India is Bhutan’s largest benefactor and had earmarked $282 million for its development during 2022-23. India accounts for 82 percent of Bhutan’s total external trade, and has consistently been Thimphu's top trading partner. It also remains the leading source of investments in Bhutan. Delhi has supported Bhutan’s five-year plans since 1961, including fully funding two of the 10 completed five-year plans.

The two countries enjoy a close partnership that extends beyond traditional areas of co-operation. India had provided special assistance to Bhutan during Covid and sent 13 consignments of medical supplies to Thimphu. It was also the first country to provide Covishield vaccines to the mountain kingdom.

India’s rising concerns

Bhutanese PM Tshering had told Belgian daily Libre early this year that it is not up to Bhutan alone to solve the problem at the India-Bhutan-China trijunction.

He said there were three countries involved in it. “There is no big or small country, there are three equal countries, each counting for a third,” and added, “We are ready. As soon as the other two parties are ready too, we can discuss.”

He had also rejected reports about China constructing villages inside Bhutan’s borders.

Doklam, a plateau in Bhutan that is close to the trijunction where the borders of the three countries meet, is of serious strategic importance to India.

In 2017, the Indian army had moved into Doklam to prevent Chinese soldiers from constructing a road there in violation of the agreement between the three countries, which had resulted in a 73-day military stand-off.

In recent months, there have again been reports of Chinese construction in the area. This time, the situation has been complicated by the growing perception that Bhutan is tilting towards China.

Since May 2020, the Indian and Chinese armies have been in a face-off at the border, along the Line of Actual Control (LAC).

The Bhutanese King is likely to reassure India that Thimphu will not enter into any agreement with Beijing that jeopardises Indian security. But India will keep its eyes peeled for any shifts in Bhutan’s attitude.