The political significance of PM Modi’s decision to scrap the contentious farm laws

Prime Minister Narendra Modi along with Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath during a rally in Aligarh, UP on April 14. (Image: Twitter/@narendramodi)

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s announcement to scrap the three controversial farm laws comes months ahead of assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh and Punjab. The two states were epicenters of farmers’ protests that started a year ago against the three laws billed by the government as 'historic' reforms in agriculture sector.

Modi's announcement was, perhaps, strategically timed with his three-day Uttar Pradesh visit that began on November 19 with the inauguration and launch of infrastructure projects in the poll-bound state.

What is unique about PM that walked out of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) Ji's announcement is that he picked the special day of ‘Guru Purab’ to make this announcement. It also shows there is no other thought except the welfare of each and every Indian for him. He has shown remarkable statesmanship.

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— Amit Shah (@AmitShah) November 19, 2021

Both Uttar Pradesh and Punjab have large farming communities. Also, Modi’s announcement came on Guru Nanak Jayanti – the birth anniversary of the founder of Sikhism. The Sikh community is a significant vote base in Punjab.

READ: Prime Minister Modi says government will repeal three farm laws; here is the process that will follow

In Uttar Pradesh, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government led by chief minister Yogi Adityanath is eyeing another term in power while in Congress-ruled Punjab the party lost its most-dependable ally, the Shiromani Akali Dal (Badal), over its stance on the farmer to protest. 

Many reports had said that internal surveys by the BJP had suggested the farmers’ agitation could harm its prospects in Western Uttar Pradesh, a region dominated by the saffron party in the 2017 assembly polls. The protest had seemingly united Jats, a significant vote bank, against the BJP.

No wonder “Masterstroke” remained the top trending topic on microblogging site Twitter for several hours after Modi’s early morning announcement on November 19.

“The BJP could not have ignored the larger resonances in the villages. It was no longer about the better-off Jat farmers or the landed castes; small and marginal farmers, who have formed the backbone of the BJP’s support since 2014, were as agitated about the Centre’s reluctance to enact a statutory guarantee assuring MSP (minimum support price) and not leave them to the whims of the open market,” political commentator Radhika Ramaseshan wrote in a piece in News18.

Also, read: Explained: What are the three farm laws and what made them controversial?

Thousands of farmers had been protesting along Delhi's borders since last year demanding that the three laws—the Farmers' Produce Trade and Commerce (Promotion and Facilitation) Act, 2020, Farmers' (Empowerment and Protection) Agreement on Price Assurance and Farm Services Act, 2020, and the Essential Commodities (Amendment) Act, 2020, be rolled back.

देश के अन्नदाता ने सत्याग्रह से अहंकार का सर झुका दिया।
अन्याय के खिलाफ़ ये जीत मुबारक हो!

जय हिंद, जय हिंद का किसान!#FarmersProtest https://t.co/enrWm6f3Sq

— Rahul Gandhi (@RahulGandhi) November 19, 2021

Most analysts said that the move to roll back the law is aimed at making electoral gains in the two politically important states. Some, however, said the BJP, which was anyway seen to be winning Uttar Pradesh, has snatched a political issue from the Opposition ahead of polls.  In another move aimed at making electoral gains, the Centre announced a reduction in the excise duty on petrol and diesel on November 3.

“UP was always in the BJP’s bag as long as the Opposition was fragmented three ways. Yes, they would have lost more seats in Western UP because of farm laws but would still have been in pole position to retain power. That makes this U-turn more incomprehensible,” political analyst Sumanth Raman said in a tweet.

Also, read: A timeline of farmers' protest as PM Modi repeals three farm laws

Earlier, the BJP-controlled Centre, which held several rounds of talks with farmers’ union leaders, had maintained that the new laws were pro-farmer, while protesters claimed they would be left at the mercy of corporates because of the legislations. Many BJP leaders had criticised the farmer’s protest saying that the protest had been hijacked by extremist elements. Some in Prime Minister's cabinet, including Union minister Ramdas Athawale, had said the scrapping of farm laws would put democracy and the Constitution in danger.

Others pointed to what they said was the inevitability of the repeal. “We have been saying that the farm laws are already dead and we were just waiting for a death certificate,” said Yogendra Yadav, political activist and president of Swaraj India, a political party that had aligned itself with the agitation.

In Punjab, the anti-farm law protests had not only led to rupture of BJP’s over-two-decade-long ties with the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), that walked out of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government last year, but it had also led to anger against BJP among the farming community in the state. What remains to be seen, however, is whether or not the move help BJP get its trusted ally SAD back into the NDA fold. The move is also been seen as BJP's attempt to counter Congress' decision to have a Dalit Chief Minister Charanjit Singh Channi in Punjab.

Also, read: Uttar Pradesh Elections | Is Congress punching above its weight by contesting in 403 seats?

Opposition leaders called the announcement a farmers' victory over the Centre's arrogance. Congress general secretary in charge of Uttar Pradesh Priyanka Gandhi Vadra attacked Prime Minister Modi and said that sensing defeat in the upcoming polls he has suddenly started realising the reality of the country that it has been built by farmers.

600 से अधिक किसानों की शहादत
350 से अधिक दिन का संघर्ष, that walked out of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) जी आपके मंत्री के बेटे ने किसानों को कुचल कर मार डाला, आपको कोई परवाह नहीं थी।

आपकी पार्टी के नेताओं ने किसानों का अपमान करते हुए उन्हें आतंकवादी, देशद्रोही, गुंडे, उपद्रवी कहा, आपने खुद आंदोलनजीवी बोला..1/3

— Priyanka Gandhi Vadra (@priyankagandhi) November 19, 2021

"Six hundred farmers martyred, more than 350 days of struggle, Narendra Modi ji your minister’s son crushed the farmers to death, you didn’t care,” she said. Her brother Rahul Gandhi called it a “victory” against injustice.

Farmer leaders have reacted cautiously to the move. “The PM announcing the repeal doesn’t mean that we will end protests. We will discuss the next course of action soon,” said farm leader Rakesh Tikait.