Can BJP expand its support base south of the Vindhyas in 2024?

BJP's success in 2019 LS elections was largely due to its massive support base in the North Indian states, while its presence in the South remained limited to Karnataka.

The INDIA alliance seems to have weakened with the exit of Nitish Kumar and inability to work out a seat sharing arrangement amongst parties within the alliance in many states. Meanwhile, BJP is not only trying to stitch a bigger alliance by roping in its old allies, but also trying hard to expand its own support base socially and geographically.

The big success of BJP in 2019 Lok Sabha election was largely due to its massive support base in the North Indian states, while its presence in the South remained limited to only Karnataka. But it seems BJP is working hard to make its footprints visible in some states in the South.

BJP’s South India Ambitions

The euphoria of Ram Mandir is certainly going to be more in the North Indian Hindi heartland states, but the South may also give some electoral dividends to BJP. One should not forget BJP has already initiated a voter’s outreach programme for South Indian states.

During the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, amongst the Southern states, BJP came out strongest in Karnataka where it won 25 of the 28 Lok Sabha seats with 51.4 percent votes. It is true that even with an alliance with JD(S) for the 2024 Lok Sabha, BJP can’t expect to gain in Karnataka, but there are other states where it can expect to gain compared to its previous performance.

In Tamil Nadu, BJP contested in five seats in alliance with AIADMK in 2019, and polled 3.6 percent votes. For 2024, it is yet to form an alliance, but there is a possibility of BJP improving its electoral performance. The BJP is even attracting former AIADMK legislators to its fold. It is important to note that senior BJP leader Amit Shah has taken charge of the state and has given a free hand to the party’s state unit chief K Annamalai.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has also paid a visit to Tamil Nadu recently, which was seen as the beginning of BJP’s electoral campaign from the South. There is even speculation that PM might contest the 2024 polls from Ramanathapuram in Tamil Nadu. If Prime Minister Narendra Modi decides to contest election from Ramanathapuram, it may have a ripple effect in other Lok Sabha constituencies in Tamil Nadu. An alliance with smaller regional parties will also help BJP in consolidating its base somewhat.

The two other states of the South where BJP stands a good chance of improving its electoral performance are Telangana and Kerala. In 2019 in Telangana, BJP had won four Lok Sabha seats and polled 19.5 percent votes. After BJP’s poor performance in the 2023 Assembly election, one does get a sense that BJP has not been able to expand its support bases in Telangana, but one should not forget that in many states voters have voted differently while voting for Assembly and Lok Sabha elections. Even during the 2018 assembly elections, BJP did not perform well – it polled 7 percent votes and won only one assembly seat – but performed very well a few months later in Lok Sabha elections. There’s a possibility of BJP repeating that and performing well in 2024 in Telangana.

Kerala Focus

There may be ifs and buts about how BJP can perform in Telangana, but BJP seems well set for a good performance in Kerala. During the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, though BJP could not win any seat, it polled 12.9 percent votes while its allies BDJS polled 1.9 percent votes.  In Kerala, the party is going all out to woo the numerically-significant Christian community.
A major chunk of high-range farmers are from the Christian community and hence issues like rubber prices are being highlighted, with Tellicherry (Thalassery) Metropolitan archbishop Mar Joseph Pamplany even offering electoral support to BJP if rubber prices are increased to Rs 300 per kg.  BJP has strongly hinted that Suresh Gopi, a former Rajya Sabha MP, will be its candidate from Thrissur. Apart from banking on the actor, who accompanied Modi on his roadshow, BJP is also expecting a significant chunk of Christians in the constituency to vote for it, especially after the recent outreach programmes.

Thiruvananthapuram has been a silver lining for BJP; its best showing was in 2014 when party veteran O Rajagopal, who got 32.3 percent of the votes, narrowly lost out to Congress candidate Shashi Tharoor who received 34.1 percent votes. Rajagopal, now 94, is a popular leader and managed to garner votes from outside the ambit of the Sangh Parivar as the constituency has a significant upper-class Hindu vote bank and BJP has a better grassroots structure in Thiruvananthapuram, compared to other constituencies. In 2019, BJP’s Kummanam Rajasekharan also secured more than 31 percent of the votes but again lost out to Tharoor who polled more than 41 percent of the votes.

Another constituency BJP focussed on in 2019 is Pathanamthitta in central Kerala, which has 35 percent Christian and 58 percent Hindu population. BJP in 2019 fielded its state president K Surendran, who was at the forefront of the protests, from the constituency. Though he finished third, he managed to increase the party’s vote share from 15.95 percent in 2014 to 28.97 percent.

BJP may also focus on Attingal Lok Sabha seat in Thiruvananthapuram district. BJP’s woman faces in the state, Shobha Surendran, contested the 2019 Lok Sabha elections from Attingal and secured 24.18 percent of the votes, a dramatic rise from the 10.6 percent the party polled five years earlier. This time too, BJP is likely to field a prominent leader from the OBC Hindu Ezhava community in the constituency, which is considered to be influential in the constituency. In 2019, all three parties fielded Ezhava candidates.

While Andhra Pradesh still remains a weak state for BJP’s expansion, there are speculations of BJP trying to form an alliance with Telugu Desam Party (TDP).

Besides these micro strategies, BJP also has some mega plans. In the southern state a team of 1000 ‘vistaraks’, who will be dedicated to these seats, has been constituted. A Lok Sabha Pravas campaign has been launched with MPs being assigned seats where they would have to spend a night every fortnight.

BJP has handed over its leadership to young people in the southern states and is attempting social engineering. Though BJP leadership has yet to take a final call on fielding the Rajya Sabha members, speculation is rife that Union ministers V. Murleedharan, Hardeep Puri, and S Jaishankar, among others, are likely to contest Lok Sabha elections from southern states which might help BJP in creating a positive atmosphere in favour of the party. The way BJP has prepared these strategies at both micro and macro levels, it is certainly going to pay some dividends to the party in the South in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

Sanjay Kumar is a Professor at Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS). He is also a Political Analyst. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.