How will politics in South India pan out for 2024 Lok Sabha polls?

Political analyst Sanjay Kumar emphasizes that the outcome of the 2024 general elections depends on how well the INDIA alliance can work out a seat-sharing agreement ahead of the 2024 general elections to counter BJP

The Congress victory in Telangana after the win in Karnataka earlier – but without success in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh – may seem like a North-South divide in the choice made by voters. In fact, some Congress leaders took to social media to amplify this "divide."

But they were countered by BJP leaders who said such attempts to read the electorate's choice on a North-South line would serve no purpose. The Telangana verdict, which showed the resurgence of the Congress, may just mean that the relationship between the Congress and the regional players like the DMK or the Left will continue to swing between "frenemies" and "allies." That is during pre-poll and post-poll dalliance.

Northern Losses Hurts Congress In South Too 

With Congress diminished in the North, the DMK is bound to realise that seat sharing arrangements need to be revisited.

Many DMK strategists believe their party would have to win more seats on its own to deal with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP post-2024 polls.

Therefore, the Congress would be forced to accept whatever the DMK offers because it has had a piggyback ride for quite some time. In 2019, the DMK-led alliance won 38 of the 39 seats from Tamil Nadu. The DMK won all the 20 seats it contested and the Congress secured eight of the nine seats it was allotted.

Of late, there has been murmur within the Congress that it must be given 15 seats but the DMK does not appear to be willing to oblige. The defeat of the Congress in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan has taken the fizz out of such demands. The Congress cannot bargain with the DMK on the basis of its national strength.

Alternatively, the Congress may be tempted to try out the option of aligning with the AIADMK, which has already broken ranks with the BJP. Will the Congress dare to take such a step? Perhaps, the Congress high command would not permit such a course even though many Tamil Nadu Congress leaders say they are worried about the impact of anti-incumbency issues and corruption charges against the DMK ministers.

Many DMK leaders too have suggested to the party leadership the option of re-aligning with the BJP-led NDA. If the situation warrants, all options must be kept open, they say. Of course, Chief Minister MK Stalin's relationship with Modi is anything but cordial today.

In Kerala, the Left is bound to strategise to win as many Lok Sabha seats as possible. Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan will work harder to deny the Congress-led UDF a repeat of the 2019 performance when it won 19 of the 20 seats.

Vijayan had won a second term edging out the Congress after several course corrections before the 2021 assembly elections. The CPI(M) leadership realises that Kerala alone presents an opportunity to make a presence felt in the 18th Lok Sabha. West Bengal and Tripura, the two other states where the Marxists have a sizable presence, are a challenge because of Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress and BJP respectively.

Don’t Write Off BJP Yet

On its part, BJP won't certainly write off its prospects in south India.  At stake is 131 seats of the 543 Lok Sabha seats. There are 40 parliamentary seats in Tamil Nadu and Puducherry, 28 in Karnataka, 25 in Andhra Pradesh, 20 in Kerala, 17 in Telangana and one in Lakshadweep.

Even in Telangana where it lost steam before the November 30 election, BJP improved its vote share from 7 percent to 14 percent, which is its best ever performance, in the assembly polls.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, BJP worked hard to win four seats in Telangana though it had won only one assembly seat in 2018. Similarly, the BJP is likely to strive for a two-digit tally in the Lok Sabha polls in 2024 from the state.

In Karnataka, BJP won 25 of the 28 Lok Sabha seats in 2019. With the Congress winning the assembly polls in May this year, Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and Deputy CM DK Shivakumar are striving to ensure the party wins at least 15 seats to show their clout.

Already, it is an open secret that Shivakumar is hoping to replace Siddaramaiah and the latter is keen that his successor is anyone but Shivakumar. If the BJP retains more or less the same number of Lok Sabha seats, it will signal trouble for both the leaders.

However, for Congress, the comfort lies in the fact that Karnataka and Telangana are cash-rich states and it should not face problems in mobilising resources to face the parliamentary elections.

Andhra Pradesh is one state where Congress may hope for a revival following the success in Telangana. The elections to the state assembly and the Lok Sabha will be held together.

So far, the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and Jana Sena Party (JSP) have announced a formal alliance for the 2024 elections in Andhra Pradesh. The BJP wishes to go alone and wants to improve its vote share.

Of the 25 seats from AP, the BJP is understood to have decided to focus on about five Lok Sabha and 25 assembly constituencies, irrespective of the alliances if there will be any.

For this, the BJP has identified 10 Lok Sabha constituencies. The list includes Visakhapatnam, Araku, Kakinada, Rajampet, Tirupati, Naraspur, Anakapalli, Rajamahendravaram, Kurnool, and Hindupur. Of this, the focus would be on Visakhapatnam, Araku, Kakinada, Rajampet and Tirupati.

The BJP has either won from these segments earlier or has a vote share. Moreover, Vanavasi Kalyan Ashram, a wing of Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) has been active among the tribals.

BJP had a vote share of 3-4 percent in the past. As the election was largely bipolar – a fight between the YSRCP and the TDP – in 2019, BJP's supporters voted for the YSRCP and its vote share was down to less than 1 percent.

Politics in south India is going to descend into a scramble for winning seats in the Lok Sabha polls. And don’t rule out BJP citing a non-existent North-South electoral divide.

Shekhar Iyer is former senior associate editor of Hindustan Times and political editor of Deccan Herald. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.