BJP's Look East policy | Northeast: Saffron party's push for Citizenship Bill may upset leads in the region

Narendra Modi and Amit Shah (Image: NW18 Creative)

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is hoping to make electoral gains in the eastern, southern and Northeastern regions of the country in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections.

For the BJP, these gains would help offset some of the losses it is expected to face in the ‘Hindi heartland’ states.

In the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the Narendra Modi-led party swept through the Hindi-speaking belt.

Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar, Chandigarh and the National Capital Region (NCR) of Delhi have a total of 226 parliamentary seats. The BJP won 191 of these seats in the previous parliamentary election. Its partners from the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) won 11 seats there.

In December 2018, Congress was able to wrest Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan from the BJP in one-on-one contests in the assembly elections largely banking local anti-incumbency and agrarian distress.

The saffron party is now facing similar anti-incumbency in many other northern states, leading observers to believe that it is likely to face substantial losses. Experts also highlight that the lack of a ‘Modi wave’ that had swelled BJP’s vote share in 2014.

Opinion polls concur with these observations. Multiple polls have predicted BJP facing heavy losses in the Hindi-speaking belt.

The Samajwadi Party (SP)-Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) alliance could cut down BJP’s tally to half in Uttar Pradesh alone, the surveys show.

The East and Northeast has been untapped regions for the BJP as far as parliamentary constituencies are concerned. So, it is here that the saffron party is desperate to make gains.

The region, comprising Odisha, West Bengal, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Manipur, Mizoram, Nagaland and Tripura, has a total of 88 seats. The BJP had won just 11 of these Lok Sabha seats in 2014.

The BJP has traditionally been a no-player in the Northeast. After Independence, many of the states in the region had Congress-led governments. Subsequently, regional parties sprang banking on regional identities and local issues.

The BJP has historically had negligible support in the Northeast. The BJP did not have an organisation in the region as it has in many of India’s states. It relied on regional parties for support.

In fact, in the 2014 Assembly elections in Arunachal Pradesh, BJP won only 11 out of the 42 seats it contested in the 60-member assembly. With 42 seats, Congress registered a comfortable win. In Sikkim, it failed to win a single seat in the 2014 Assembly polls just like the Congress.

Also read - BJP's Look East policy | Odisha: Saffron party stands to gain as CM Naveen Patnaik battles anti-incumbency

‘The sun rises in the east’

However, in 2016, the BJP launched a massive campaign in Assam banking on the three-term anti-incumbency against Congress chief minister Tarun Gogoi. The saffron party managed to register a historic victory along with its allies.

It was also able to form a government in Arunachal Pradesh after many Members of Legislative Assembly (MLAs) there defected from the Congress.

With the help of allies, it was able to oust yet another three-term chief minister Okram Ibobi Singh.

In the first half of 2018, the party formed governments in Meghalaya and Nagaland along with its allies and single-handedly displaced Manik Sarkar-led Left government in Tripura. Left had held power in the state since 1993.

In December 2018, BJP’s dream of “Congress-mukt Northeast” was realised when the MNF trumped Congress in Mizoram.

The party structure has swelled rapidly since in most of these states.

BJP has been gaining ground in the Northeast states in both parliamentary and assembly elections. The saffron party has not gained at the cost of the regional parties, but also the Congress which is the other national party there.

According to a report by India Spend, Congress’ vote share in six Northeastern states (Meghalaya, Tripura, Nagaland, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Manipur) fell by 13.4 percent between 2014 and March 2018.

In the same period, BJP’s average vote share ballooned from under 4 percent to above 23 percent.

The report also suggests that from an average seat share of 1.5 seats in six state elections between 2009 and 2014, BJP’s average tally jumped to 23.5 seats there.

Mergers and acquisitions

To enter the Northeast, BJP deployed the ‘mergers and acquisition’ strategy. Since 2014, the saffron party has actively formed alliances in the region. The efforts culminated in formation of the Northeast Democratic Alliance (NEDA) in 2016.

NEDA’s key members are the Bodoland People's Front (BPP), Ganashakti Party, Indigenous People's Front of Tripura (IPFT), Manipur Democratic People's Front (MDPF), Manipur Peoples Party (MPP), Mizo National Front (MNF), Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP), National People's Party (NPP) and Sikkim Democratic Front (SDF).

Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) was part of the alliance till January 2019 while People's Party of Arunachal (PPA) was subsumed by BJP in December 2016.

However, some of these parties have at times fought local and assembly elections separately. For example, the MNF and the BJP contested the 2018 Mizoram Assembly elections separately.

The eight states have a total of 25 seats. With all of Northeast being governed by the BJP or its allies, the saffron party is hoping to win a significant number.

Assam, with a total of 14 seats, is at the heart of BJP’s Northeast strategy. Besides winning seven seats in 2014, the party had finished second in five constituencies (Karimganj, Silchar, Autonomous District, Barpeta and Kaliabor). Interestingly, the margin of loss was less than 10 percent in four of these constituencies.

In Arunachal Pradesh, BJP won one seat and lost the other with a margin of less than 5 percent.

The Republic TV-CVoter opinion poll in December 2018 showed NDA improving its tally, winning nine seats in Assam. However, in the January 2019 survey, the alliance’s tally fell to six. UPA’s tally during the same period grew from four to seven.

The sharp drop in BJP’s favourability there may have been caused by the Citizenship (Amendment) Bill. The contentious issue, which witnessed widespread protests in recent months, has visibly swung the mood in the Northeast.

Under fear that voters might desert them because of their proximity to the BJP, many partners are threatening to quit the NDA.

The Citizenship conundrum

BJP has been pushing for The Citizenship (Amendment) Bill that seeks to amend the Citizenship Act, 1955 to make illegal immigrants (Hindus, Sikhs, Buddhists, Jains, Parsis and Christians from Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Pakistan) eligible for Indian citizenship.

The move witnessed severe opposition in the region, especially in Assam.

Also read: EXPLAINER | Citizenship (Amendment) Bill’s key question: Why are some illegal immigrants more equal than others?

H Srikanth, professor of political science at the North-Eastern Hill University, told Moneycontrol: “The legal and illegal migration that took place during colonial and post-colonial periods have generated so much of fear psychosis among the local inhabitants (in the region), who call themselves indigenous people or the natives, that they spontaneously unite to protect what they consider to be their regional and native interests.”

As a result, there is a movement against the Bill being led by civil society organisations, students and native intellectuals.

Addressing a rally in Assam on February 9, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said the citizenship bill will in no way cause harm to the region’s interest.

Assam Jatiyatabadi Yuva Chatra Parishad (AJYCP) member stop a train during a protest against Citizenship (Amendment) Bill near Kamakhya Junction railway station, in Guwahati, Assam. (Image: PTI)

Modi reiterated that BJP was committed to implement the 36-year old Assam Accord.

The comments came on the day Modi was shown blag flags by protesters belonging to the Asom Jatiyatabadi Yuva Chhatra Parishad (AJYCP) while he was on his way to the airport in Guwahati.

Passing of the bill in Lok Sabha in the Winter Session had forced one of its allies — the AGP — to quit NDA. Meghalaya’s UDP also quit the alliance over the bill. NPP and MNF continue to oppose the bill.

“No regional party, irrespective of whether they support BJP or Congress at the national level, can dare to take a stand against the wishes of the local communities. As is evident, the AGP and the NCP came out openly against the Citizenship Bill,” Srikanth said.

As the bill was already passed in Lok Sabha, it only had to be pushed through Rajya Sabha. However, as the 16th Lok Sabha concluded its final scheduled sitting on February 13, the bill now stands to officially lapse on June 3.

While the bill was under consideration in the Upper House, Srikanth said, “As such, if the Rajya Sabha passes the Bill, the Northeastern states may experience Assam Agitation-like situation in the entire region.”

Some of the local BJP leaders in the Northeast states had taken a stand against the bill fearing desertions. Assam Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal, belonging to the BJP, has come under pressure to push his party to withdraw the bill.

Yet, the BJP has not backed down on the bill. In fact, BJP national president Amit Shah has said they would re-introduce the bill if they retain power. Some experts believe that the Bill’s pros for the BJP in West Bengal and pockets of Northeast outweigh the cons.

“The Citizenship Bill is an integral part of BJP’s overall agenda to turn India into Hindustan. They expect the Bill to get support across the country, although they know they would meet resistance in the Northeastern states,” Srikanth said.

Also read - BJP's Look East policy | West Bengal: Saffron party all set to take on Mamata Banerjee's TMC head-on

“Even here, the BJP leaders are trying to convince the locals in Assam that it helps to increase the Hindu population and helps in reducing the percentage of Bengali Muslims, thus protecting the locals against the so called Bangladeshis,” Srikanth added.

Srikanth feels that “this logic, however, does not hold with the Assamese who do not want to see any difference between Bengali Hindu or Bengali Muslim migrants/refugees. Similarly, to the tribal communities in the hill states, who are mostly Christians, it does not matter whether the outsider is a Hindu or a Muslim, to them both are Dhkars (foreigners).”

Asked why the BJP had pushed for the bill even as it stared at losses in the Northeast, Partha Das, psephologist and analyst at political consultancy Chanakyya, told Moneycontrol that the move was driven by ideology.

“There seems to be no electoral strategy behind this. This is only ideological just like the Ram Mandir issue,” Das said.

Srikanth said while the resistance may not make “much of difference to BJP, as the total number of Lok Sabha seats from the Northeast are just 25, in the event of no national party gaining majority, the seats from the Northeast do matter”.

Not all losses, some gains

According to Srikanth, while the sentiments against the Bill are strong among Assamese and the tribals, “there is support for the Bill among the Hindu Bengalis who are in substantial numbers in Tripura and in Assam’s Barak valley region”.

This may help BJP in fetching some seats in Tripura and in the Hindu Bengali-dominated areas of Assam such as the Barak Valley, “where many Bengali families did not find their names cleared in the NRC (National Register of Citizens) report,” Srikanth suggested.

Srikanth added that media’s focus has been more on the Bill’s resistance and the considerable support that it enjoys among migrants and minorities of the region has been ignored.