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Market reacts to macroeconomic data, FOMC minutes, earnings: Experts

On the technical front 17,250 and 17,450 are immediate support and resistance in Nifty 50 respectively, says Mohit Nigam, Head - PMS, Hem Securities.

February 14, 2022 / 12:06 PM IST
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Indian benchmark indices lost nearly 1 percent in the highly volatile week ended February 11 that saw RBI policy announcement, relentless FII selling and possibility of a faster than expected Fed rate hike amid rising US inflation.
Ajit Mishra, VP Research. Religare Broking | With major events behind us, the focus would on global markets and earnings for cues. On the macro front, participants will first react to the IIP data on Monday i.e. Feb 14. Besides, both CPI Inflation and WPI inflation are also scheduled for Feb 14. We’re now in the last leg of the earnings season and companies like Adani Enterprises, Coal India, Eicher Motors, Ambuja Cements and Nestle India will announce numbers during the week along with several others. Markets have been consolidating for the last four months and still not offering any cue over the next directional move. Global cues i.e. inflation concerns and Russia-Ukraine tension are currently weighing on the sentiment. However, favourable domestic factors like a pro-growth budget and dovish RBI capping the damage so far. We feel the prevailing tussle between the bulls and bears would end soon. On the index front, 16,800-17,000 would remain the critical support zone in Nifty and it would face stiff resistance around 17,650-17,800 zone. We’re seeing a mixed trend across sectors wherein metal looks strongest followed by banking, energy, auto while IT, pharma and realty may trade subdued so plan your positions accordingly.
Ajit Mishra, VP Research. Religare Broking | With major events behind us, the focus would on global markets and earnings for cues. On the macro front, participants will first react to the IIP data on Monday i.e. Feb 14. Besides, both CPI Inflation and WPI inflation are also scheduled for Feb 14. We’re now in the last leg of the earnings season and companies like Adani Enterprises, Coal India, Eicher Motors, Ambuja Cements and Nestle India will announce numbers during the week along with several others. Markets have been consolidating for the last four months and still not offering any cue over the next directional move. Global cues i.e. inflation concerns and Russia-Ukraine tension are currently weighing on the sentiment. However, favourable domestic factors like a pro-growth budget and dovish RBI capping the damage so far. We feel the prevailing tussle between the bulls and bears would end soon. On the index front, 16,800-17,000 would remain the critical support zone in Nifty and it would face stiff resistance around 17,650-17,800 zone. We’re seeing a mixed trend across sectors wherein metal looks strongest followed by banking, energy, auto while IT, pharma and realty may trade subdued so plan your positions accordingly.
Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart | Technically, Nifty is facing resistance at 100-DMA which is currently placed at 17650 level. On the downside, 17300 is immediate support below this, 17000-16800 is a critical demand zone and the buy-on dip texture will remain intact till Nifty trades above 16800 that is 200-DMA. Bank Nifty has a comparatively strong chart structure however it is facing resistance in the 39000-39500 zone; above this, we can expect a fresh rally towards 40200/41000 levels. On the downside, 20-DMA of 38200 and 100-DMA of 37800 are immediate support levels while 37000-36500 is a critical demand zone.
Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart | Technically, the Nifty is facing resistance at 100-DMA which is currently placed at 17650 level. On the downside, 17300 is immediate support below this, 17,000-16,800 is a critical demand zone and the buy-on dip texture will remain intact till the Nifty trades above 16,800 that is 200-DMA. Bank Nifty has a comparatively strong chart structure however it is facing resistance in the 39,000-39,500 zone; above this, we can expect a fresh rally towards 40200/41000 levels. On the downside, 20-DMA of 38,200 and 100-DMA of 37,800 are immediate support levels while 37,000-36500 is a critical demand zone.
Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities | Nifty found resistance around 17635 and slipped lower towards the gap on the daily timeframe. On the daily timeframe, a red-bodied candle is visible. Once again, the index has slipped below the 50 EMA. The trend looks sideways to negative for the near term. On the lower end, support is visible at 17250-17265. On the other hand, Nifty needs to move beyond 17640 to change the current bearish trend.
Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities | The Nifty found resistance around 17,635 and slipped lower towards the gap on the daily timeframe. On the daily timeframe, a red-bodied candle is visible. Once again, the index has slipped below the 50 EMA. The trend looks sideways to negative for the near term. On the lower end, support is visible at 17,250-17,265. On the other hand, Nifty needs to move beyond 17,640 to change the current bearish trend.
Mohit Nigam, Head - PMS, Hem Securities | On the technical front 17,250 and 17,450 are immediate support and resistance in Nifty 50 respectively. For Bank Nifty 38,200 and 38,800 are immediate support and resistance respectively.
Mohit Nigam, Head - PMS, Hem Securities | On the technical front 17,250 and 17,450 are immediate support and resistance in Nifty 50 respectively. For Bank Nifty 38,200 and 38,800 are immediate support and resistance respectively.
Amol Athawale, Deputy Vice President - Technical Research, Kotak Securities | The Nifty took support near 17050 but failed to sustain above the 20-day SMA which is broadly negative. Technically, the index is witnessing non directional activity near the 50-day SMA. However, on daily and weekly charts, it is holding higher bottom formation but at the same is consistently facing resistance at 20 day SMA. Hence, the market is likely to maintain non directional activity in the near future. The immediate support would be 17300-17250 while 17600 and 17700 would act as a crucial hurdle for the bulls. Meanwhile, after a short term correction the Bank Nifty held the level of 20-day SMA. The structure suggests 38200 or 20-day SMA and 38000 would be the sacrosanct support for the index, and above the same uptrend momentum is likely to continue till 39500-40000.
Amol Athawale, Deputy Vice President - Technical Research, Kotak Securities | The Nifty took support near 17050 but failed to sustain above the 20-day SMA which is broadly negative. Technically, the index is witnessing non directional activity near the 50-day SMA. However, on daily and weekly charts, it is holding higher bottom formation but at the same is consistently facing resistance at 20 day SMA. Hence, the market is likely to maintain non directional activity in the near future. The immediate support would be 17,300-17,250, while 17,600 and 17,700 would act as a crucial hurdle for the bulls. Meanwhile, after a short term correction the Bank Nifty held the level of 20-day SMA. The structure suggests 38200 or 20-day SMA and 38000 would be the sacrosanct support for the index, and above the same uptrend momentum is likely to continue till 39500-40000.
Palak Kothari, Research Associate at Choice Broking | On the technical front, the index has formed a Doji kind of Candlestick on a weekly chart which points out confusion between buyers & sellers. Furthermore, the index is trading below the middle band of Bollinger which suggests downside movement in the counter. On an Hourly Chart, the index has been trading below 21*50-HMA with the negative crossover which suggests weakness for next session. Moreover, the daily momentum indicator Stochastic as well MACD is also trading with negative crossover which adds weakness in prices. At present, the index has support at 17130 levels while resistance comes at 17600 levels. On the other hand, Bank Nifty has support at 38000 levels while resistance at 39000 levels.
Palak Kothari, Research Associate at Choice Broking | On the technical front, the index has formed a Doji kind of Candlestick on a weekly chart which points out confusion between buyers & sellers. Furthermore, the index is trading below the middle band of Bollinger which suggests downside movement in the counter. On an Hourly Chart, the index has been trading below 21*50-HMA with the negative crossover which suggests weakness for next session. Moreover, the daily momentum indicator Stochastic as well MACD is also trading with negative crossover which adds weakness in prices. At present, the index has support at 17130 levels while resistance comes at 17600 levels. On the other hand, Bank Nifty has support at 38000 levels while resistance at 39000 levels.
Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services | Domestic markets have been closely following global movements with Nifty consolidating within the narrow range of 17,200-17,600 for the last couple of days. With the earning season ending on 15th Feb, the focus will shift back to global cues. Volatility is expected to remain elevated in the near term with record high inflation and the US Fed board meeting schedule on Monday. Interest rate sensitives, metals and select pharma stocks are likely to remain in focus next week.
Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services | Domestic markets have been closely following global movements with Nifty consolidating within the narrow range of 17,200-17,600 for the last couple of days. With the earning season ending on 15th Feb, the focus will shift back to global cues. Volatility is expected to remain elevated in the near term with record high inflation and the US Fed board meeting schedule on Monday. Interest rate sensitives, metals and select pharma stocks are likely to remain in focus next week.
Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services | The direction of the market in the week ahead will be determined by cues from global markets while domestic macroeconomic data and corporate earnings will continue to remain in focus in the near term.
Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services | The direction of the market in the week ahead will be determined by cues from global markets while domestic macroeconomic data and corporate earnings will continue to remain in focus in the near term.
Yesha Shah, Head of Equity Research, Samco Securities | After the reaction to US’s hot inflation, investors globally will be focused on gaining a clearer understanding of the Fed's action, as the minutes of the most recent FOMC meeting are set to be released. Another significant metric to watch will be China's inflation data, which has recently shown indications of easing. Back home, with the RBI downplaying inflation and rising crude and commodity price overhangs, D-Street investors will be keeping a close eye on the domestic inflation rate to predict its future path. Given these events, markets are largely expected to remain volatile and range-bound. Amid elevated volatility, investors should sit tight on to their quality investments and avoid aggressive bets until a clear direction is established.
Yesha Shah, Head of Equity Research, Samco Securities | After the reaction to US’s hot inflation, investors globally will be focused on gaining a clearer understanding of the Fed's action, as the minutes of the most recent FOMC meeting are set to be released. Another significant metric to watch will be China's inflation data, which has recently shown indications of easing. Back home, with the RBI downplaying inflation and rising crude and commodity price overhangs, D-Street investors will be keeping a close eye on the domestic inflation rate to predict its future path. Given these events, markets are largely expected to remain volatile and range-bound. Amid elevated volatility, investors should sit tight on to their quality investments and avoid aggressive bets until a clear direction is established.
Rakesh Patil
first published: Feb 14, 2022 11:06 am
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