Israel-Hamas conflict a year on shows realpolitik is the only reality

In the Middle East war, there seems to be only one dominant view.

By T S Tirumurti 

When I was India’s Representative to the Palestinian Authority in Gaza, President Yasser Arafat visited India for a NAM-related meeting in 1997. In his Rashtrapati Bhavan suite that evening, I sat with him watching CNN, waiting to leave for the NAM meeting, when Prime Minister Netanyahu, who was visiting the US, came on the TV screen for a press interaction with President Clinton. President Arafat was naturally watching it very keenly. When PM Netanyahu was making a particular point, suddenly President Arafat turned to me and said “watch now, he will shake his shoulders.” And sure enough, Netanyahu did. That was the moment I realized that even body language of leaders is followed keenly to draw appropriate conclusions on pressing Middle East issues.

For the last one year since October 7, 2023, the world is watching more than just a shake of PM Netanyahu’s shoulders. This includes the brutal attack of Hamas on Israel, taking of 250 Israeli hostages, some of whom are tragically still in Hamas custody, Israel’s pulverization of Gaza and indiscriminate killing of nearly 42,000 Palestinians most of whom are women and children, growing attacks and killings of West Bank Palestinians, Hezbollah’s attacks on northern Israel and consequent mass displacement of Israelis, the elimination of Hamas and Hezbollah leadership by Israel, their ground offensive into Lebanon, attack by Houthis on Red Sea shipping and the attack/ counterattack between Israel and Iran.

Chimera of two-state solution

While the Hamas attack last year woke everyone up – for the nth time – to the unfinished agenda of the establishment of a Palestinian state, events of the last one year in Gaza and the West Bank has made this eventuality more and more improbable. Israel has made Gaza into a rubble twice over, leading International Court of Justice (ICJ) to call it possible genocide, but Israel is still attacking Gaza to eliminate Hamas. In the meantime, Israel has launched an offensive in the West Bank on Palestinian cities and exponentially increasing illegal settlements claiming that their eventual goal is an Israeli state encompassing Judea and Samaria (West Bank) which, as PM Netanyahu has time and again reminded, extends from the Jordan River to the sea.

In the midst of obfuscation of Palestine, the irony is that even the US – for whatever it is worth – is now talking about a two-state solution. The advisory ruling of the International Court of Justice in July this year has yet again underlined the legal basis for a Palestinian State by declaring Israel's occupation of the Gaza strip and the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, as unlawful.

The Israelis themselves, especially their youth who, for two decades, had little idea of what was happening in occupied Palestinian territories, have woken up – even if rudely – to the Palestinian issue. But the silence of the Gulf and Arab countries has only reinforced the conviction that they view Gaza war through the prism of Iran and not the Palestinian cause, and may well continue the path to both normalization with Israel and greater integration with the region once the hostilities subside, whether the Palestinians realize their dream or not.

There is no doubt that the “Axis of Resistance” surrounding Israel consisting of Iranian proxies and non-state actors has been broken and weakened. Hamas is degraded and so will Hezbollah be when their leaders are eliminated and when the ground offensive by Israel concludes. How it concludes and when Israel will decide that Hezbollah or Hamas are no more threats is difficult to say but history tells us that whenever Israel went into Gaza or Lebanon, they got bogged down and had to extricate themselves, which resulted in the “axis” strengthening once again and an even more intense “occupation” being imposed. This cannot be good for the security of Israel or an acceptable outcome of current hostilities.

Israel’s game plan

As long as there is no political goal, there can be no military-imposed peace and security. Neither can the nearly-forgotten hostages be retrieved without a ceasefire. But Israel resists a ceasefire or negotiations right now since it needs to first secure a favourable negotiating position through its military dominance by creating facts on the ground to erase the 1967 borders and to eventually annex Judea and Samaria, i.e. the West Bank.

With almost all countries standing on the sidelines, including the US, Europe, Russia, China and the Gulf states, only Iran stands in the way now. That is why it is so important for Israel to keep Iran in shackles. Nothing better than using this period of paralysis both in international decision-making and in the run-up to US Presidential elections to force the hand of a much-debilitated and much-sanctioned Iran. And nothing better than bringing the US into play more directly by attacking a reluctant Iran.

Selective application of rules

What happens to international laws and so-called rules based international order which lie in tatters on the battlefield? What happens to the fight against terrorism? Ukraine and Gaza wars have answered these questions – and the answer is the same as earlier – it all depends on who does it. At least in Ukraine there are two blocs with differing views. In the Middle East war, there seems to be only one dominant view.

And so, after one year of Gaza war, we are watching not the shake of PM Netanyahu’s shoulder but unravelling of the world order. While it suits some, others are unwilling or not in a position to do anything about it.

(T S Tirumurti was India's Ambassador/ Permanent Representative to the United Nations, New York, during 2020-2022 and President of the UN Security Council in August 2021. He tweets at @ambtstirumurti.)

Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.