Climate change poses severe threat to Kashmir’s cash crops

In south Kashmir, known for producing the country’s finest saffron and apples, the situation is particularly dire.

Jammu and Kashmir is grappling with a severe rainfall deficit this year, recording only 834.8 mm compared to normal 1137.7 mm, according to weather analysts. The rainfall deficit in Kashmir rose to 87 percent in the month of October, with only 4 mm of rainfall recorded, compared to the normal 31 mm for the month. In south Kashmir, known for producing the country’s finest saffron and apples, the situation is particularly dire, with rainfall levels plummeting by 95 to 100 percent below normal last month.

Rainfall Deficit Hits J&K

The alarming rainfall deficiency highlights the significant consequences of climate change on the region’s agriculture, horticulture, and allied sectors. For several years, the global warming induced climate change has hindered the growth of Valley’s key cash crops, which need moderate temperatures and a chilling period to thrive, causing consistent losses for farmers. Rising temperatures driven by climate change have disrupted rainfall patterns, leaving saffron fields and apple orchards deprived of the water they need.

For the past two decades scanty rainfall, especially during the critical growing period, coupled with inadequate irrigation, has dealt a severe blow to Kashmir’s Rs. 375 crore saffron industry. In Pampore, Kashmir's saffron town, large areas of land remain barren, with farmers losing interest in cultivating the crop due to the challenging weather conditions. For example, saffron production, one of the world’s most expensive spices, has been on the decline, compounded by the shrinking table land that is crucial to its cultivation.

Saffron Industry in Crisis

According to data from the department of agriculture Kashmir, saffron production, locally known as “kong,” has dwindled from 15.98 metric tonnes (MT) in 1997-98 to just 3.48 MT in 2021-22. Similarly, as per J&K government data saffron, the “king of species” was being cultivated on 5707 hectares of land in 1997-98, which had shrunk to around 3715 hectares till year 2021-22.

The crop requires adequate precipitation during winter, but due to an extended dry spell last winter followed by another prolonged dry spell in summer, the crop has declined compared to last year.

Saffron growers, who have relied on the crop for over 2,500 years, are now facing drastically reduced yields, with the lack of rainfall turning their once-productive saffron fields into barren dust bowls.

Apple Industry Faces Uncertain Future

Kashmir’s apple industry, which accounts for nearly 80 percent of India’s apple production, has also been severely affected by prolonged dry spells, heatwaves, and early snowfall.

J&K’s apple industry, valued at Rs 8,000 crore, is a vital sector of the region’s economy, supporting over 3.5 million people and contributing approximately 8% to the Union Territory’s GDP.

Heatwaves in recent years have hindered the colour, size, and overall development of fruit, lowering their market value. For example, humid weather has led to dark smudges on apples, caused by sooty blotch and flyspeck disease. Apple trees which are exposed to long hours of direct sunlight also developed sunscald also known as sun scars on delicious varieties of apples because moisture is essential for fruit development for maintaining cell turgidity. The scorching heat has also triggered premature maturation in crops, severely disrupting their development cycle.

While apple production and the area under cultivation have significantly increased in Kashmir, the yield of A-grade premium apples has declined due to quality degradation.

This year, with little rainfall from June to August, high-density orchards in Kashmir, which depend on regular irrigation, have also struggled, despite the rapid growth of high-density apple farming in recent years due to its promise of higher yields and quicker returns. From 2018 to 2021, Kashmir also witnessed unseasonal snowfall in October and November, during the peak harvest season. The early snowfall devastated apple crops, damaging fruit-laden trees and resulting in heavy losses for growers.

Extreme Weather Events Devastate Crops

Official data from the horticulture department Kashmir reveals that harvest losses amounted to 5 billion rupees in 2018, escalating to 22.5 billion rupees in 2019, the year the region experienced its heaviest snowfall in 60 years. Seasonal snowfall is crucial for all crops, including saffron and apples, as it melts during winter and seeps into the soil, providing essential moisture throughout spring and summer.

In recent years, the region has also experienced a series of record-breaking weather events. For example, on February 28, 2016, Kashmir recorded its hottest February in 76 years, with a temperature of 20.06°C. Four years later, on August 17, 2020, the region recorded its hottest August in 39 years, with a temperature of 35.07°C. Similarly, on July 18, 2021, Kashmir experienced its hottest July in eight years, reaching 35°C. The Valley has also seen extreme cold, with January 30, 2021, marking the coldest night in 30 years.

On May 23 this year, Srinagar recorded its highest May temperature in at least a decade, and on July 28, the city reached 36.2°C, marking the hottest July day since July 9, 1999.

Horticulture scientists warn that temperatures exceeding 30 degrees Celsius are detrimental to apple crops, and this year’s persistent heat has caused premature maturation, disrupting the developmental cycle and reducing both quality and yield.

Extreme weather changes have already caused a significant drop in the quality and yield of other crops, including strawberries, cherries, apricots and plums, resulting in substantial losses for growers.

The shrinking glaciers in the Himalayas have also reduced water flow to the foothills, worsening the situation. The total glaciated area of nine benchmark glaciers in Kashmir has shrunk by 5.20 km (17.92%) over the past 33 years, from 29.01 km in 1980 to 23.81 km in 2013, indicating significant glacial retreat.

On November 6, this year the Jhelum river, a major source of water for drinking and irrigation at Sangam in south Kashmir recorded a historic low, with its water level dropping to minus 0.82 feet, the lowest ever recorded at the station.