Bihar: The Karpoori Thakur legacy and the BJP-JD(U) battle for the Lower OBC vote

Karpoori Thakur will conferred with Bharat Ratna. was an Indian politician who served two terms as the 11th Chief Minister of Bihar

The Rashtrapati Bhavan has announced that former Bihar chief minister Karpoori Thakur will be awarded the Bharat Ratna posthumously.  With the 2024 Lok Sabha election looming on the horizon, the JD (U), BJP and RJD are competing with each other in their preparation to celebrate the 100th Jayanti of former Bihar chief minister Karpoori Thakur.

A spirited tussle between the BJP and JD(U) to own the legacy of the tall Socialist leader Karpoori Thakur, who was born in a poor Nai (barber) family, and played an important role in the politics of Bihar between the 1950s and 1980s, is on. While I do not doubt the commitment of political parties and the leaders in showing their respect and reverence, one can’t deny that politics remains at the core of such celebrations.

Karpoori Thakur’s Politics Of Social Justice

During his long political career which spanned over three phases, he was a two-time Chief Minister and a one-time Deputy Chief Minister of Bihar. In the first phase, he enjoyed support from most caste groups, in the second he got identified as a leader of the Other Backward Classes, and in the third phase he was in search of a support base, especially among the most backward classes, Dalits and the poor, as a section of the dominant OBCs had turned away from him. The politics of Bihar since the 1990s cannot be delinked from the legacy of Karpoori Thakur.

While JD(U) and RJD seem to be the natural claimant for the legacy of Karpoori Thakur, BJP is trying hard to send out the message to the numerically large OBC group that it is the BJP which is carrying forward the ideals and legacy of Karpoori Thakur. The BJP-led central government has decided to come out with a commemorative coin on the occasion of the birth centenary of the late Karpoori Thakur. The coin will be of Rs 100 denomination. Commemorative coins are intended to celebrate and honour people, places, events, and institutions. Although these coins are legal tender, they are not minted for general circulation. Also, the price of such a coin is much higher than the value printed on it.

Owning the legacy of Karpoori Thakur may be crucial for mobilising the votes of the OBC castes in Bihar. It is believed that whichever party would be successful in owning the legacy of Karpoori Thakur would be able to moblise the OBC votes as Karpoori Thakur was seen as a messiah of the OBC group. It is Karpoori Thakur’s tall stature in Bihar politics which forces leaders like Lalu Prasad and Nitish Kumar along with many other leaders to be time and again claiming to be the real followers of the principles of social justice which Karpoori Thakur always fought for.

He introduced an innovative reservation policy of reservation for the OBCs, sub-dividing the quota of reservation for the OBCs into Lower and Upper OBC (then known as Annexure I and Annexure II) popularly known as Karpooi formula, unlike how 27 percent of reservation for OBCs was implemented through the Mandal Commission report.

It is important to note that the recent Caste Census in Bihar estimated that 36 percent of Bihar’s population belongs to the Lower OBC castes like Lohar, Kahar, Kumhar, Nai, Teli etc. while 27 percent of the Bihar population belong to the Upper OBC castes namely Yadav, Kurmi, Koeri, taking the total share of OBCs to 63 percent. The mobilisation of the OBC vote has been and still remains key to electoral success in Bihar.

Lower OBC Drift To BJP

Efforts are on for seat sharing arrangements between the JD(U)-RJD-Congress and Left parties in Bihar to challenge the BJP and its allies in Bihar. Of the three dominant parties, JD(U), RJD and BJP whichever of the two parties have come together have had an upper hand in the electoral battle in Bihar, as the alliance of the two helps in consolidation of the OBC votes. This effect is more so if JD(U) and RJD come together as both parties enjoy sizeable support amongst the OBC.

But elections over the years also indicate a shift amongst the Lower OBC castes towards the BJP, visible more in Lok Sabha elections compared to the Assembly elections. During the 2014 Lok Sabha polls when the three parties contested the election separately, a post-poll survey showed the Upper OBC votes got split into 49 percent for RJD, 21 percent for the BJP and 14 percent for the JD(U) while the Lower OBC votes got divided between these three as 10 percent for RJD, 52 percent for BJP and 18 percent for the JD(U).

But during the 2019 Lok Sabha election, when JD(U) was in alliance with the BJP, it managed to mobilise 42 percent Upper OBC and 75 percent lower OBC votes while the RJD alliance managed to get 41 percent of Upper OBC and 14 percent of the Lower OBC votes. But during the 2015 Assembly elections when RJD and JD(U) formed an alliance against the BJP alliance, the JD(U)+RJD alliance got 63 percent Upper OBC and 35 percent Lower OBC votes while the BJP alliance got 16 percent Upper OBC and 42 percent Lower OBC votes.

This evidence clearly indicates a movement of the Lower OBC votes towards the BJP despite the JD(U)-RJD alliance, as evident from the 2015 Assembly elections. While BJP looks at it as an opportunity to make further inroad amongst the Lower OBC castes, the challenge for the JD(U)-RJD is to wean back the Lower OBC and keep the Upper OBC intact. Thus both the political blocs believe that the Karpoori Thakur Jayanti is the best opportunity before the 2024 Lok Sabha election to send out the message of being the messiah of the OBC castes.

Sanjay Kumar is a Professor at Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS). He is also a Political Analyst. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.