Bangladesh’s Awami-BNP binary trap once again brings the country to the brink

bangladesh

Bangladesh is on the boil again. Not since the country’s liberation war of 1971 has it seen such bloodshed as now. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has - reportedly on the Bangladesh army's advice - resigned and left the country.  At the time of writing the information was that she had landed at Hindon IAF base, near Delhi.

Arab Spring parallel

The temptation is to draw parallels between her departure from the country with that of another South Asian leader couple of years ago - that of Gotabaya Rajapaksa due to popular discontent. But the events unfolding in Bangladesh right now may have more in common with that of Hosni Mubarak's resignation from power in Egypt during the Arab Spring in 2011. We are witnessing an unholy cocktail of genuine students’ grievance,
government overreach, opposition opportunism, and as many Bangladeshis allege - external interference. 

The protests by the 'Students Against Discrimination' group, began last month in July against job quotas. High Court reinstated 30 percent quotas in government jobs for the kin of 1971 Liberation War veterans. For many the quota system seemed to be benefitting the kin of the ruling Awami League party, which had, of course, been at the forefront of Bangladesh's "muktijoddha". The protests had largely been peaceful till protestors clashed with the security forces leading to more than 200 dead, and as reported by AFP, 11,000 arrested. Rights groups have accused her government of using excessive force against protesters.

The Supreme Court of Bangladesh scrapped most quotas on July 21. 

Simmering anger that couldn’t be contained

What should have led to calm however was upturned, when protestors returned last week with a set of demands: a public apology from Hasina for the violence, restoration of internet connections, reopening of college and university campuses and release of those arrested. Sunday, August 4th, was to see the start of nationwide non-cooperation called by the "Students Against Discrimination" to oust Hasina from power.

After the renewed protests Hasina alleged that the protestors were no longer students but "terrorists " who "are out to destabilize" the country. On 1st August the government issued a ban on the Jamaat i-Islami and its students wing - the Chattra Shibir. Protests broke out again. 

Opposition stoked the unrest

The students' wings of both the opposition Bangladesh National Party (BNP) and its ally the rabid Jamaat i-Islami organization, an off-shoot of Pakistan’s Jamaat and which had presided over the Bangladesh genocide have been heavily involved in the protests.

Eye witness reports by those who had visited the protest sites in person found placards with slogans like “Mukti-joddhader gale juta maro tale-tale” (slap the faces of the freedom fighters with shoes). A statue of Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rehman, the founding father of Bangladesh, was also vandalized and toppled today. 

We may well be witnessing a military coup taking place next door, though the army chief in a hurriedly held press conference has assured that an interim government would soon be in place and then elections called for in a fair and transparent manner.

While events have unfolded very fast, Bangladesh observers are not surprised. Something like this was simply waiting to happen and the quota issue was the final straw.

Hasina’s fall

Sheikh Hasina is the daughter of Bangabandhu, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. Her family's contribution to the liberation and development of Bangladesh as a secular democratic moderate Muslim country is unparalleled. Under her Bangladesh has seen some laudable improvements in development indices. Till recently, the Bangladesh economy was one of the world's fastest growing economies. Under Hasina, Bangladesh held the war crimes tribunal which sent radical Jamaat leaders with Bengali blood on their hands, to the gallows. 

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Yet, Hasina's governance had become increasingly autocratic and corrupt. While keeping religious radicals and pro- Pakistani Jamaat elements at bay, her government had become increasingly a one-party, one-family show, with nepotism ruling the roost. In power since 2009, the last two elections were held with virtually no opposition, thousands of whose members were in prison. 

Radical alternative to Awami

Like in Egypt, where the alternative to Mubarak was the Muslim Brotherhood, the only alternative to the Awami Leage is the ISI-backed BNP-Jamaat combine; in keeping with this binary no third front has been allowed to emerge.

Therefore, India, with which the Awami League has traditionally shared close ties, has always been in favour of Hasina. India is not alone in this. China too is a backer of Hasina, who has also, for historic reasons, kept aloof from the US.

The US and UK, with whom the BNP shares good relations have been extremely critical of the way the administration has handled the protests. Earlier too Washington had been concerned about the fairness of the Bangladesh elections. Washington was also concerned with Bangladesh, under Hasina drawing closer to China.

Thus, Bangladesh, was sitting on a powder keg when the High Court reimposed the quota system. 

The country needs a third alternative in terms of political representation.