The turnout trap: 5 times higher footfall changed governments in Bihar

The final verdict on the Bihar election results will be announced on Friday

The 2025 Bihar elections witnessed the highest turnout in the history of the state at 67.13% across two phases on November 6 and 11. It is an increase of 9.62 percentage points over 57.29% in 2020.

According to the Election Commission, the turnout among male voters was 62.98% and among female voters was 71.78% in the 2025 assembly election.

Both the NDA and Mahagathbandhan are claiming that this high turnout will favour their respective alliances.

Exit polls have made near-unanimous predictions of a clear mandate for the ruling NDA. The 243-member Bihar assembly requires a simple majority mark of 122 seats to form the government in the state. Pollsters have forecast that the NDA will bag 121-209 seats. Meanwhile, the Mahagathbandhan has been placed at a distant second position with a range of 32-118 seats.

Traditionally an increase in voter turnout suggests the possibility of a change of government. However, this may not hold true for Bihar.

There have been five instances when an increase in the voter turnout was followed by a change in the Bihar government.

1967

The voter turnout increased from 44.5% in 1962 to 51.5% - an increase of 7 percentage points - and the Congress government fell. The non-Congress parties then formed a coalition government.

1980

The Congress came back in 1980, after the voter turnout again increased, by a significant 6.77 percentage points, to 57.28%. The Congress retained power in 1985, when there was a marginal decline of nearly 1 percentage point in the turnout, to 56.27%.

1990

Voter turnout in 1985 was 56.3%, which increased to 62% - an increase of 5.7 percentage points in 1990. The Congress was ousted from power, replaced by the Janata Dal. Lalu Prasad became the Chief Minister for the first time.

1995

Ahead of the 1995 election, Nitish Kumar quit the Janata Dal to form the Samata which later became the JD(U) and aligned with the BJP. However, Lalu retained power with his Janata Dal winning 167 of the 324 seats, as the voter turnout dipped slightly to 61.79%.

By 2000, Lalu was at the helm of RJD, and again came to power after the voter turnout increased by less than 1 percentage point to 62.57%.

According to the Election Commission, in every election since October 2005, the turnout has been increasing from 52.73% in 2010 and 56.91% in 2015 to 57.29% in 2020.

In 2025, there are 20 constituencies where the absolute voter turnout (the actual number of people who voted) increased by more than 15% compared to 2020, according to Indian Express.

Along with these 20 seats, there were 132 seats where the increase in voter turnout this time was above 10%.

In 2020, the highest increase in the turnout percentage was 9.76 percentage points in the Chakai seat.

In 2015, only Katoria, Dhaka, Sitamarhi witnessed an increase in turnout bove 10 percentage points.